{"id":57328,"date":"2019-05-01T04:09:09","date_gmt":"2019-05-01T01:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=57328"},"modified":"2019-05-01T04:09:11","modified_gmt":"2019-05-01T01:09:11","slug":"merkez-bankasi-ne-anlatiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-bankasi-ne-anlatiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 ne anlat\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2423439096\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Y\u0131l sonu<br \/>\nenflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 14,6&#8230; Peki \u015fu an itibariyle ka\u00e7? Y\u00fczde 14,7&#8230;<br \/>\nYani bu mant\u0131kla ilerlersek sene sonuna kadar s\u0131f\u0131r enflasyonla ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z ve<br \/>\nge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz seneye oranla da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da y\u00fczde 25 oran\u0131nda gerileyecek.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Sizce bu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Bunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verebilmek i\u00e7in, ge\u00e7en<br \/>\ny\u0131l nisan ay\u0131 sonu itibariyle Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2018 sene sonu i\u00e7in enflasyon<br \/>\ntahminin ne oldu\u011funa bakmam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>30 Nisan 2018 tarihi itibariyle Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u0131l sonu<br \/>\nenflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 0,5 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 8,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<br \/>\nNeden? Ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon raporunda y\u00fczde 7,9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1366960271\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Peki ayn\u0131 tarihte yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re 2019 sonu<br \/>\nenflasyonu ka\u00e7 olarak tahmin ediliyordu? Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re<br \/>\ny\u00fczde 6,5&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3859435657\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda enflasyon ne ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti? Y\u00fczde 20,3&#8230;<br \/>\nYani y\u00fczde 100\u2019den fazla sapma&#8230; \u015eimdi 2019 itibariyle ne tahmin ediyor? Y\u00fczde<br \/>\n14,6&#8230; Yani yine y\u00fczde 100 sapma&#8230; D\u00fcz mant\u0131kla hareket eder ve Merkez<br \/>\nBankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131lma pay\u0131n\u0131 baz olarak al\u0131rsan\u0131z, 2019 sene sonunda enflasyonun<br \/>\nrahatl\u0131kla en az y\u00fczde 30 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebilir miyiz? S\u00f6yleriz&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Peki bu ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olur mu? \u015e\u00fcphesiz olmaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n<br \/>\nbundan sonraki diliminde nas\u0131l bir ekonomik seyir olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin<br \/>\nedebiliyoruz; ama kesin bilmiyoruz. Fakat mesele tahminse, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n<br \/>\ns\u0131n\u0131fta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n resmi rakamlar \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan tahminler<br \/>\noldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatmam laz\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bug\u00fcn itibariyle zaten ger\u00e7ek enflasyon,<br \/>\nortalamalara vurdu\u011funuzda y\u00fczde 30\u2019un bile \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Bundan sonra Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ayn\u0131 toplant\u0131da rezervlerle<br \/>\nya da olas\u0131l\u0131klarla ilgili de\u011ferlendirmelerinin bir k\u0131ymeti var m\u0131? Bana<br \/>\nkal\u0131rsa yok. Yani s\u00fcrekli y\u00fczde 100 sapma ya\u015fayan, ya\u015famakla kalmay\u0131p, ayn\u0131<br \/>\nsapma olmayacakm\u0131\u015f gibi bir tav\u0131rla, s\u00fcrekli kamuoyunu ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ne s\u00f6yledi\u011finin hi\u00e7bir \u00f6nemi yok.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bence as\u0131l tehlike tam da burada. Rakamlar\u0131n hepsini<br \/>\nbir kenara b\u0131rakal\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc resmi olarak ne a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rsa a\u00e7\u0131klans\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131ndan<br \/>\nesnaf\u0131na, memurundan sanayicisine kadar herkes sokakta ne ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Ama bir \u00fclkenin ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde<br \/>\nitibar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 zorunlu olan; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in olmazsa olmaz<br \/>\nkurumlardan biri olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan Merkez Bankas\u0131, bu kadar s\u00f6z\u00fcne<br \/>\ng\u00fcvenilmez bir hal ald\u0131ysa, esas problem orada ba\u015fl\u0131yor demektir.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi isteyen Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon raporunu ve<br \/>\na\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 yorumlas\u0131n. Bana kal\u0131rsa hi\u00e7bir k\u0131ymeti yok. Ve yineliyorum<br \/>\nger\u00e7ek tehlike bu itibar kayb\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;> Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 14,6&#8230; Peki \u015fu an itibariyle ka\u00e7? Y\u00fczde 14,7&#8230; Yani bu mant\u0131kla ilerlersek&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-57328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57328\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}