{"id":5732,"date":"2011-09-29T09:10:21","date_gmt":"2011-09-29T06:10:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5732"},"modified":"2011-09-29T09:10:35","modified_gmt":"2011-09-29T06:10:35","slug":"krizin-ucuncu-asamasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/krizin-ucuncu-asamasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Krizin \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc A\u015famas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130lk a\u015famas\u0131 ABD\u2019yi, ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 AB\u2019yi etkileyen krizin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015famas\u0131, geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomileri etkileyecek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-111051165\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lk a\u015famas\u0131 ABD\u2019yi, ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 AB\u2019yi a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde etkileyen k\u00fcresel krizin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015famada geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomileri etkisi alt\u0131na alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve as\u0131l krizin o zaman ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti\u011fimi daha \u00f6nce yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. ABD ve AB\u2019nin krize girmesinden bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilenmi\u015f olsalar da geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomiler bug\u00fcne kadar krizi bir \u015fekilde kendilerinden uzak tutmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131lar. San\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131k bu a\u015famada bu pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomileri, y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri ve di\u011ferleri olarak iki gruba ay\u0131rabiliriz. \u00c7in, Hindistan, Brezilya, Rusya, Meksika, T\u00fcrkiye gibi ekonomilerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk gruptaki \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 20 ile 40 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Bu grubun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan 130 dolay\u0131ndaki ekonomi aras\u0131nda daha az geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler yer al\u0131yor. Y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fim ekonomiler hem GSYH olarak hem de \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fc olarak gruptan ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinin baz\u0131lar\u0131 k\u00fcresel sistemin ihtiyac\u0131 olan baz\u0131 hammaddelerin \u00fcreticisi konumunda bulunuyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Rusya \u00f6nemli bir do\u011falgaz ve petrol \u00fcreticisi, Brezilya d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda bir soya \u00fcreticisi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ekonomiler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yeterli b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde talep gerilemesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yeterince ihracat yapamaz duruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve ekonomik denge bozulmalar\u0131 ya\u015fayabiliyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu s\u0131ralarda i\u00e7ine girdi\u011fimiz d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor ve bunun etkisiyle bu t\u00fcr hammaddelere olan talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu durum, bu t\u00fcr hammaddeleri \u00fcretip satan ekonomilerin yava\u015f bir seyirle de olsa s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 i\u00e7ine girebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinin baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise hammadde sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 de\u011fil. Bunlar t\u0131pk\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler gibi sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ya da geli\u015fme yolundaki di\u011fer ekonomiler gibi tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri satarak d\u00f6viz geliri elde ediyorlar. Bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde turizm gelirleri de a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yer tutuyor. T\u00fcrkiye bu kategoride hem sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihra\u00e7 eden hem de turizm gelirleri \u00f6nemli miktarlara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan bir y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomisi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kriz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemedi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Krizin ilk a\u015famas\u0131nda ABD, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal \u00f6nlemlerle gidi\u015fi tersine \u00e7evirmeyi, ekonomiyi yeniden canland\u0131rmay\u0131 denedi ama pek de ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamad\u0131. Trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k likidite deste\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131n ne t\u00fcketim ne yeni ev sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ne de di\u011fer alanlarda beklendi\u011fi gibi bir canlanma ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6yle olunca i\u015fsizlik sorunu da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden kald\u0131. Krizin ikinci a\u015famas\u0131nda Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomilerinin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc kendi ald\u0131klar\u0131 veya almay\u0131 planlad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerle krizden \u00e7\u0131kma yolunda hi\u00e7bir geli\u015fme sa\u011flayamad\u0131lar. Bu ekonomilere Avrupa Birli\u011fi fonlar\u0131ndan ve IMF\u2019den yard\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 da yap\u0131l\u0131yor ama olumlu bir geli\u015fme \u015fimdiye dek sa\u011flanamad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3074509711\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Lider sorunu\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 genel kurul toplant\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131l\u0131rsa geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler hen\u00fcz sorunun nas\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fi konusunda, eylem birli\u011fi bir yana, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce birli\u011fi olu\u015fturmaktan bile uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. \u00c7ok a\u00e7\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki k\u00fcresel sistemin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc temel sorunu, ortak eylemi organize edecek bir liderin olmamas\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bu rol\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oynard\u0131. Genellikle de arkas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u0130ngiliz lider olurdu (Roosevelt\u2013Churchill, Reagan\u2013Thatcher, Clinton\u2013Blair gibi). Bug\u00fcn Obama g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir lider de\u011fil. \u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kim oldu\u011funu ise \u00e7o\u011fu \u0130ngiliz bile bilmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye, ikinci dalgay\u0131 da atlatacak ama \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dalgay\u0131 atlatmak ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Mahfi E\u011e\u0130LMEZ<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1306763292\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130lk a\u015famas\u0131 ABD\u2019yi, ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 AB\u2019yi etkileyen krizin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015famas\u0131, geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomileri etkileyecek. \u0130lk a\u015famas\u0131 ABD\u2019yi, ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 AB\u2019yi a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde etkileyen k\u00fcresel krizin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}