{"id":57018,"date":"2019-03-13T01:52:13","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T22:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=57018"},"modified":"2019-03-13T01:52:13","modified_gmt":"2019-03-12T22:52:13","slug":"stoklar-bitince-ne-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/stoklar-bitince-ne-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Stoklar bitince ne olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi payla\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor. Y\u00fczde 2,6 y\u0131l genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, y\u00fczde 3 son \u00e7eyrekte daralmay\u0131 payla\u015fam\u0131yor olmak elbette kendi i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131 bir gariplik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-465917246\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca dolar kuru \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan uygulama da i\u015fin cabas\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K, d\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mla ilgili bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapm\u0131\u015f, ama do\u011fruyu s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse \u00e7ok tatminkar de\u011fil. Ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yaparsan\u0131z yap\u0131n, o baz al\u0131nan y\u0131llarla nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fimler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. O y\u00fczden bu teknik tart\u0131\u015fmaya girmeye gerek yok.<\/p>\n<p>Benim i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki durum daha \u00f6nemli. Zira baz\u0131lar\u0131 olan\u0131 konu\u015furken, biz gelene\u011fi bozmayal\u0131m olacaklar ve olas\u0131 riskleri anlatmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrelim. Belki sobelendikleri yerlere cevap yeti\u015ftirmek yerine, bu uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131p, \u00f6nlem i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7erler.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar Meclisi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130smail G\u00fclle asl\u0131nda durumun analizini net bir bi\u00e7imde ortaya koydu. Dedi ki: \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck destek\u00e7isi ihracat oldu. Y\u0131l genelinde ise net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 3,6 puan katk\u0131 verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u201d Y\u00fczde 3 daralma ya\u015fanan son \u00e7eyrekte ihracat\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da ise art\u0131 8,4 puan oldu\u011funu da dile getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda bu mutluluk verici bir \u015fey ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131ya bu noktada te\u015fekk\u00fcr etmek gerekiyor. Ama baz\u0131 sorular\u0131 da ard\u0131na s\u0131ralayarak&#8230; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131yla ilgili herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131ld\u0131 m\u0131? Yani halen \u00fcretim yapabilmek i\u00e7in ithalat yapmak zorunday\u0131z. \u0130thalat\u0131n amiyane tabirle g\u00f6\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu d\u00f6nemde, ihracat rekorlar\u0131 k\u0131rmay\u0131 iyi okumak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Daha do\u011fru alg\u0131layabilmek i\u00e7in \u00fclkenin y\u00fczde 7,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini hat\u0131rlamak gerekiyor. Bu nedenle 29 Mart 2018 tarihinde kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u2018B\u00fcy\u00fc(me)\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131mdan ilgili b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc tekrar payla\u015fmak istiyorum. O tarihte herkesin methiyeler d\u00fczd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle ilgili payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m bilgi \u015fuydu:<\/p>\n<p>\u201c&#8230;ihracat\u0131n bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki pay\u0131 1,9 d\u00fczeyinde\u2026 Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise sadece 1,8\u2026 Kamu harcamalar\u0131 da 1,1 oran\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, Yani ne satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan ne de kamu ad\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z harcamadan ne de yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak bir de\u011fer elde edemedik. Ger\u00e7ek bir ekonomiden bu resim i\u00e7inde s\u00f6z etmek g\u00fc\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130thalat\u0131n eksi 5 ile oran azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 foto\u011fraf da bir garip. O zaman 77 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun sonucu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan 51 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k bu hesab\u0131n neresinde? Peki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etki eden en \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131klar hangisi? Y\u00fczde 4,1 ile t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131, y\u00fczde 3,4 de stok i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00fcretimler.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1021491631\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki bu bize ne anlat\u0131yor? Sadece i\u00e7 piyasada men\u015fei belirsiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yap\u0131lan i\u00e7 hacim ve stoklara y\u0131\u011f\u0131lan \u00fcretimlerle b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz&#8230;\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yani stoklara yap\u0131lan \u00fcretimle yakalanan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f piyasan\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde risk ta\u015f\u0131yordu. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kur f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 ise bir anlamda sorunu azalt\u0131c\u0131 bir etki yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Stok maliyetiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak bir reel sekt\u00f6r, kur avantaj\u0131n\u0131 arkas\u0131na alarak, ucuza ve yine kola ba\u015f\u0131na gelirini ciddi anlamda artt\u0131rmadan sat\u0131\u015f yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te de \u00fcretimden kapasiteye kadar her \u015fey sorunlu hale gelirken, bir yanda konkordatolarla k\u0131r\u0131lan \u00f6demeler zinciri di\u011fer yanda y\u00fckselen i\u015fsizlik ve enflasyonla beraber girdi maliyetlerinde ekstra art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada d\u0131\u015f ticarette fazla verir noktaya ula\u015ft\u0131k. Peki nas\u0131l? \u00dcretim yapmayarak&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretim yaparsak ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da artmas\u0131 gerekirdi.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler bize net bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor ki, stoktan mal sat\u0131yoruz. Yani 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bize getiren sto\u011fa \u00fcretimi, 2018\u2019de t\u00fckettik. Ne kadar stok mal kald\u0131 bilmiyoruz. Ama as\u0131l sonu \u015fu: Stoklar bitti\u011finde ne olacak?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1058839249\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dcretimden mi vazge\u00e7ece\u011fiz; yoksa tekrar ithalata m\u0131 y\u00f6nelece\u011fiz? Bir di\u011fer yol \u00fcretimdeki yerli katk\u0131 pay\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak. Bu konuyla ilgili bir e\u011filim oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. Ama k\u0131sa vadede hemen d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecek bir durum de\u011fil. \u00d6yleyse \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak i\u015fsizlikten ihracatta rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fe kadar yeni riskleri kap\u0131m\u0131za getiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hem de bunlar d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131, darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir foto\u011fraf\u0131n i\u00e7inde y\u00fckselen riskler olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Nitekim 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri de bunu destekliyor.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu; bu riski nas\u0131l y\u00f6netece\u011fiz? Firmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 nas\u0131l ayakta tutaca\u011f\u0131z? \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin daha \u00e7ok artmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in ne yapaca\u011f\u0131z? Ekonomi yetkilileri ve b\u00fcrokrasisi laf yeti\u015ftirmeyi ve kuru kuruya \u00f6v\u00fcnmeyi b\u0131rak\u0131p, as\u0131l bunun \u00fczerine ak\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fctmelidir. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc foto\u011frafta d\u00f6rt i\u015flem bilen kimseyi ikna etmeniz m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. O y\u00fczden bu bo\u015f u\u011fra\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p, \u015fu risklere dikkatinizi \u00e7evirin; bari gelecek sorunlar\u0131n boyutunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltelim.<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Not: G\u00f6rev nedeniyle \u015fehir d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve yo\u011fun bir toplant\u0131 program\u0131 i\u00e7inde olaca\u011f\u0131mdan 14 Mart Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc sizlerle olamayaca\u011f\u0131m. 15 Mart Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni yaz\u0131m\u0131zda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere izninizi rica ediyorum.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi payla\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor. Y\u00fczde 2,6 y\u0131l genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, y\u00fczde 3 son \u00e7eyrekte daralmay\u0131 payla\u015fam\u0131yor olmak elbette kendi i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131 bir gariplik. Ayr\u0131ca dolar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-57018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57018\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}