{"id":56913,"date":"2019-02-18T19:00:38","date_gmt":"2019-02-18T16:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56913"},"modified":"2019-02-18T13:52:29","modified_gmt":"2019-02-18T10:52:29","slug":"konut-dominosu-risk-tasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/konut-dominosu-risk-tasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Konut dominosu risk ta\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce in\u015faat temelli kalk\u0131nman\u0131n sak\u0131ncalar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirip, \u2018topra\u011fa g\u00f6md\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz milyar dolarlar ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za bela olacak\u2019 diye yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ne yaz\u0131k ki geldi\u011fimiz noktada oldu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2117766212\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu muhte\u015fem bir ekonomi bilgisine sahip oldu\u011fum i\u00e7in de\u011fil, karn\u0131mdan konu\u015fmadan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc yaz\u0131p \u00e7izdi\u011fim i\u00e7in ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir kanaatti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc o d\u00f6nemlerde herkes dudaklar\u0131n\u0131n kenar\u0131n\u0131 silerek, al\u0131nan reklamlar nedeniyle bu konuyu \u0131srarla g\u00f6rmezlikten geliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktada sadece konutta de\u011fil, t\u00fcm paray\u0131 oraya y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fimiz ve tek sekt\u00f6r ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in yaprak k\u0131p\u0131rdamayan bir piyasa, konkordatolar ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 bile munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar \u00fczerinden likidite problemini \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, ama eldeki kaynak yetmeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7 almas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 ama \u00e7aresiz i\u015flemlerin ard\u0131na s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131r hale geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Peki risk sadece konut temelli in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde mi? Elbette hay\u0131r&#8230; Ocak ay\u0131 itibariyle konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 24,8\u2019lik bir daralma ya\u015fand\u0131. Alt dilimlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda tablonun bu orandan daha \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Mesela ipotekli konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 77\u20192 oran\u0131nda azalmas\u0131, bize bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminden buraya kredi aktar\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor. Bu oran, ne kadar bask\u0131 yaparsan\u0131z yap\u0131n, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede tersine \u00e7evrilecek ve hasar\u0131 giderilecek bir tablo de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Diyelim ki kimse kredi kullanm\u0131yor; herkesin cebinde pe\u015fin paras\u0131 var ve \u00f6yle sat\u0131n alma yap\u0131yorlar. Ne yaz\u0131k ki istatistikler orada da, yani ilk kez sat\u0131lan konutlar\u0131n oran\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 30\u2019luk azalmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hemen bu vesile \u015funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izelim. Halen konut alacak birileri var. Elinde pe\u015fin paras\u0131yla bekleyip, konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n belki de \u00fc\u00e7te bir ya da d\u00f6rtte bir fiyat\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyorlar. Benzerlerini 1999 depreminden sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te de ya\u015fad\u0131k. Bu paran\u0131n ne kadar\u0131 temiz, ne kadar\u0131 \u00e7ama\u015f\u0131r makinesi paras\u0131 bilemem. O MASAK\u2019\u0131n i\u015fi&#8230; Ama bir ger\u00e7ek var ki; yine bir sermaye transferi ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3745926954\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci el piyasas\u0131 da y\u00fczde 20,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 41 bin adetlerin biraz \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Yani orada da bir hareket yok. D\u00f6n dola\u015f tutunduklar\u0131 dal ise yabanc\u0131lara konut sat\u0131\u015f\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in vatanda\u015fl\u0131k bedelini 250 bin dolara kadar \u00e7ektiler.<\/p>\n<p>Ama ocak ay\u0131 itibariyle rakamlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda burada da sadece 3 bin 168 konutun sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcm \u00fclkede bel ba\u011flanan tek kap\u0131 bile dramatik adetlerde. Bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na girmiyorum bile.<\/p>\n<p>Daha ilgin\u00e7 olan ise aylar itibariyle tabloya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ini\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar. Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir piyasada g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyecek oranda ya\u015fanan ini\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ise, banka \/ ekonomi y\u00f6netimi \/ bask\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7geninde hareket etti\u011fini g\u00f6rmemek i\u00e7in saf olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki t\u00fcm bu tabloyu nas\u0131l okumal\u0131y\u0131z? \u015eayet normal bir ekonomik foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde olsayd\u0131k; konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve buraya y\u00f6nelik \u00f6zel \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerileri \u00fcreterek i\u015fin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kabilirdik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-234443666\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ama bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomik yap\u0131y\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, her \u015feyin y\u0131llarca bu sekt\u00f6re ba\u011flanmas\u0131, onun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sekt\u00f6r ele al\u0131nmamas\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r denilince bile in\u015faat\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131n zikredilip, te\u015fviklerin bu temelli yap\u0131lmas\u0131 bir domino etkisini bize anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette y\u0131llarca uygulanan genel manadaki yanl\u0131\u015f ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Lakin bunlar\u0131n g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in barda\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131racak bir damla gerekiyordu. G\u00f6z\u00fcken o ki, o damlan\u0131n ad\u0131 konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Etki alan\u0131 ise bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden di\u011fer reel sekt\u00f6r akt\u00f6rlerine kadar uzanan bir \u00e7izgide \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu sevdadan vazge\u00e7medi\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece de ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131z daha \u00e7ok a\u011fr\u0131yacak ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme ula\u015fmam\u0131z gecikecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce in\u015faat temelli kalk\u0131nman\u0131n sak\u0131ncalar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirip, \u2018topra\u011fa g\u00f6md\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz milyar dolarlar ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za bela olacak\u2019 diye yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ne yaz\u0131k ki geldi\u011fimiz noktada&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56913\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}