{"id":56807,"date":"2019-01-29T09:01:10","date_gmt":"2019-01-29T06:01:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56807"},"modified":"2019-01-29T09:01:10","modified_gmt":"2019-01-29T06:01:10","slug":"cetin-unsalan-iran-krizi-kapida-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-iran-krizi-kapida-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130ran krizi kap\u0131da m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131 konusundaki tavr\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlayacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Bu konuda yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulanmas\u0131 ile ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da ortada. Ne olmu\u015ftu? Bizim de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fumuz 8 \u00fclkeye mart ay\u0131na kadar bir ek s\u00fcre verilmi\u015fti.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3871370569\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dclkenin se\u00e7im g\u00fcndemi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, i\u00e7 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 o kadar hareketlendi ki, bu konu tamamen g\u00fcndem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131. Oysa e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ekonomide bizde anormal harcamalardan ve para k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler, \u00c7in ile ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na verilen ge\u00e7ici ara i\u00e7in de s\u00fcre doluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00fc\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r\u00fc bir araya getirdi\u011fimizde d\u00fcnyan\u0131n s\u0131cak bir nisan ay\u0131na merhaba diyece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek falc\u0131l\u0131k olmaz. Elbette birden bire ABD\u2019nin t\u00fcm\u00fcnde geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 da olas\u0131l\u0131klardan biri.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat gerek genel tavr\u0131, gerekse de korumac\u0131l\u0131k e\u011filimli politikalar\u0131 Trump y\u00f6netiminin bu konuda U d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yapma ihtimalini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Peki \u0130ran\u2019da durum ne? Meseleye T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakarsak, ortadaki veri bize baz\u0131 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Anadolu Ajans\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ve EPDK verilerine dayan\u0131larak yap\u0131lan haberde, Haziran \u2013 Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan olan petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 51\u2019e yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Yani \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019nin istekleri do\u011frultusunda azalt\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Akla \u015fu soru gelebilir? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretimin ciddi bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fcretimin petrol talebini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? \u0130htiyac\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Irak\u2019tan, ona ilaveten Kazakistan, Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019dan kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bu tezi \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Zira petrol, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomik ko\u015fullarda sadece \u00fcretimde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bir hammadde de\u011fil. Yani imalat sanayinizin performans\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen petrol talebiniz alt\u0131 ayda azalmaz. O zaman bunun tek bir anlam\u0131 kal\u0131yor; T\u00fcrkiye \u0130ran\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Zaman\u0131nda bu konuyla ilgili yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da bu ambargoya kat\u0131lmasa da ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer tarafa \u00e7evirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc gelece\u011fin pakt\u0131nda \u0130ran ve Rusya ayn\u0131 cephede g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcrken, ayn\u0131 zamanda enerji piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da rakip. Bu nedenle b\u00f6ylesi bir geli\u015fme Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da sessizli\u011fi ile kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1097698594\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nitekim ihtiyac\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc oradan tedarik etmemiz de iki ayakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck kedilerin baz\u0131 konularda hemfikir oldu\u011funu bize g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6yleyse bu durumda mart ay\u0131yla birlikte b\u00f6lgede bir \u0130ran sorununun ad\u0131m ad\u0131m yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran konusunda yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kilit rolde oldu\u011funu o zaman da yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 nedeniyle geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6rmezden geldi\u011fi bir \u0130ran sorun ya\u015far.<\/p>\n<p>Efelik g\u00f6lgesinde yap\u0131lan bu al\u0131m azaltma ise, bize \u0130ran ile ilgili bir problemin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni bir jeopolitik risk ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor. Arz g\u00fcvenli\u011findeki problem, bir kom\u015fuyla daha s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015famak gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar da i\u015fin cabas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2003225467\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131 konusundaki tavr\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlayacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Bu konuda yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulanmas\u0131 ile ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da ortada. Ne olmu\u015ftu? Bizim de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fumuz 8 \u00fclkeye mart&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56807\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}