{"id":56778,"date":"2019-01-22T11:00:32","date_gmt":"2019-01-22T08:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56778"},"modified":"2019-01-23T11:06:11","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T08:06:11","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-imfnin-2019-beklentileri-ve-turkiye-ekonomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-imfnin-2019-beklentileri-ve-turkiye-ekonomisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; IMF&#8217;nin 2019 Beklentileri ve T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n zor bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fi var. Her ne kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beklentiler olu\u015fmu\u015f olsa da asl\u0131nda bu geli\u015fme zorlu\u011fun Fed taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda i\u015flerin iyi gitmeyece\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 erteliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2873851915\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda da egemen. Draghi, toparlanman\u0131n zaman alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ekonomilerin o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan sonra Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc G\u00fcncellenmi\u015f Raporunda IMF, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin tahminini y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019den 3,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f bulunuyor. Bunun nedenleri aras\u0131nda ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi, ABD\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapanmas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Brexit sorunu, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n otomobillere yeni bir benzin emisyonu standard\u0131 uygulamas\u0131, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fclke riski ve finansal risklerindeki art\u0131\u015flar ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin beklenene g\u00f6re daha derin bir daralma ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminler yer al\u0131yor. IMF\u2019nin tespitlerine g\u00f6re ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin teredd\u00fctler, baz\u0131 y\u00fckselen ekonomilerin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ABD\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapanmas\u0131 hisse fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine de yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>IMF\u2019nin yeniledi\u011fi tahminlere g\u00f6re 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler y\u00fczde 3,5 (eskisi y\u00fczde 3,7), geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomiler y\u00fczde 4,5 (eskisi 4,7) b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Yenilenen tahminlere g\u00f6re ABD y\u00fczde 2,5, Euro B\u00f6lgesi y\u00fczde 1,6, \u00c7in y\u00fczde 6,2, Hindistan y\u00fczde 7,5, Rusya y\u00fczde 1,6, oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek.<\/p>\n<p>IMF\u2019nin 2019 tahminleri bir resesyonu i\u015faret etmese de d\u00fcnyada resesyon bekleyenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 ihmal edilecek oranda de\u011fil. World Economic Forum\u2019un 800 CEO \u00fczerinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 18 Ocak tarihinde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anketin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re CEO\u2019lar\u0131n 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli risk olarak resesyonu g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Japon, \u00c7in ve Latin Amerikal\u0131 CEO\u2019lar resesyonu birinci, Euro B\u00f6lgesi CEO\u2019lar\u0131 ikinci, ABD\u2019li CEO\u2019lar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlike olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2019\/01\/imfnin-2019-beklentileri-ve-turkiye.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n zor bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fi var. Her ne kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beklentiler olu\u015fmu\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-56778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56778\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}