{"id":56741,"date":"2019-01-16T12:35:17","date_gmt":"2019-01-16T09:35:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56741"},"modified":"2019-01-16T11:35:51","modified_gmt":"2019-01-16T08:35:51","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-tahminlerin-tutarsizligi-ve-lucas-elestirisine-katki","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-tahminlerin-tutarsizligi-ve-lucas-elestirisine-katki\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; Tahminlerin Tutars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Lucas Ele\u015ftirisine Katk\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar ya da gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar tahmin yaparlarken genellikle eldeki veri setini kullan\u0131r ve mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yaparlar. Oysa bu tahminler yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan bir s\u00fcre sonra, \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomilerde, bir\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fiklik olur, yeni \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r ve mevcut durumu de\u011fi\u015ftirecek ad\u0131mlar at\u0131l\u0131r. Bu durumda tahminin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 andaki mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitirmi\u015f olur. Bir tahminin alt\u0131nda yatan varsay\u0131m anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011finde o tahminin tutmas\u0131 beklenemez. Esasen tahmin de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullarda tutuyorsa o da tahminin tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunun sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1456918520\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Robert Lucas Jr. (1995 Nobel Ekonomi \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc), yeni bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 uygulamaya sokuldu\u011funda, iktisat\u00e7\u0131 ve analistlerin, bu politikan\u0131n etkilerini ge\u00e7erli ekonomik yap\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayanarak \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve tahminlerini buna g\u00f6re yapmalar\u0131n\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. Bu yeni ekonomi politikas\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin bekleyi\u015flerini etkilemek suretiyle mevcut yap\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finin ihmal edilmesini ele\u015ftiriyor. Lucas\u2019a g\u00f6re yeni politikan\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru tahmin edebilmek i\u00e7in bu politikan\u0131n karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ne y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne almak gerekir. Lucas\u2019\u0131n bu tespitine Lucas Ele\u015ftirisi ad\u0131 veriliyor.<\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2019\/01\/tahminlerin-tutarszlg-ve-lucas.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar ya da gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar tahmin yaparlarken genellikle eldeki veri setini kullan\u0131r ve mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-56741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56741\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}