{"id":56637,"date":"2018-12-27T11:51:26","date_gmt":"2018-12-27T08:51:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56637"},"modified":"2018-12-27T11:51:26","modified_gmt":"2018-12-27T08:51:26","slug":"cetin-unsalan-reel-kesim-neden-guvenmiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-reel-kesim-neden-guvenmiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Reel kesim neden g\u00fcvenmiyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda da gerilemeye devam etti. Bu i\u015fin istatistik boyutu. As\u0131l \u2018neden\u2019 sorusunu aramam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc istatistikler, rakamlar iner \u00e7\u0131kar, ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131r yans\u0131tmaz ayr\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fma konular\u0131d\u0131r. Sadece fikir verir.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4194782592\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ama sahan\u0131n i\u00e7inde ya\u015f\u0131yorsan\u0131z bunun sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 yapmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok da rakamlara ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z olmaz. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle net bir bi\u00e7imde biliyoruz ki, reel sekt\u00f6r s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar i\u00e7inde bo\u011fu\u015fuyor. Gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin de g\u00fcveni k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Bire bir konu\u015ftu\u011funuzda azimli ve kararl\u0131 olmakla g\u00fcvenli olmay\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmamak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn klasik bir \u00f6zelli\u011fidir. \u015eartlar ne olursa olsun ticaretine, \u00fcretimine devam etmek i\u00e7in elinde geleni yapar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7o\u011fu zaman da kriz ortamlar\u0131nda ya da riskli pazarlarda i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu i\u015fin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kar. Bunun en yak\u0131n zaman \u00f6rneklerini 2001 krizi sonras\u0131nda ihracat hamlesi yapmas\u0131nda ve 1998 krizindeki Rusya darbesinin ard\u0131ndan aya\u011fa kalkmas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bu yap\u0131, ya\u015fananlar\u0131 normal k\u0131lm\u0131yor. \u00dcstelik her iki d\u00f6neme oranla bug\u00fcn \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler, bor\u00e7lar alt\u0131nda ve i\u015fini d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmekte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck ya\u015f\u0131yor. Sadece bizde de\u011fil, d\u00fcnyada da belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131yla birlikte gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcveni de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zedeleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a birim kazanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen, konkordatolar f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131n\u0131n etkileriyle bo\u011fu\u015fan, net bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesi yapmas\u0131 gereken, finansman kadar pazar a\u00e7maz\u0131 ya\u015fayan, \u00f6demeler zinciri tamamen k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir yap\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bilhassa konkordato zincirinin, buna ba\u015fvuranlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkileri ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor da, bunlara \u00fcretim yapan ya da tedarik sa\u011flayanlar \u00fczerinden piyasada ya\u015fanan g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin boyutlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmek istenmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Zaten bu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olsa, bir d\u00fczenleme ile reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc devlet ve bankalar gibi alacaklar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7irir ve ilk alacakl\u0131 konumuna getiririz. B\u00f6yle bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n da olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcveni sa\u011flanam\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3944567182\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Zira hen\u00fcz bir tedarik\u00e7i ve \u00fcreticiler nas\u0131l bir hasar ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacaklar\u0131n\u0131n bilgisine sahip de\u011fil. Hatta tahmin bile edemiyorlar. \u0130\u00e7 pazarda t\u00fcketicinin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yitirmesiyle birlikte daralma bekleyen bir reel sekt\u00f6r ger\u00e7e\u011fi var. Nitekim baz\u0131 enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fecek yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n temelinde de bu yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yani enflasyonun 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc bulunanlar, ekonomik bir iyile\u015fmeyi de\u011fil, daralmay\u0131 esas alarak bunu yap\u0131yorlar. Bakanlar hari\u00e7&#8230; D\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyada ise artan ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fleri daha \u00e7ok zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndalar.<\/p>\n<p>TL ve d\u00f6viz baz\u0131nda artan maliyetleri, bunlar\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131tamad\u0131klar\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fini \u00f6ylesine iliklerine kadar hissediyorlar ki, bu resim i\u00e7erisinde ortaya bir g\u00fcvenin \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fc? \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00e7ok geni\u015f ve ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131da anlat\u0131r\u0131z. Ama bu yaz\u0131ya konu olan g\u00fcveni istiyorsan\u0131z \u00e7aresi belli. G\u00fcven vermelisiniz. Vermiyorsunuz&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2888362770\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda da gerilemeye devam etti. Bu i\u015fin istatistik boyutu. As\u0131l \u2018neden\u2019 sorusunu aramam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc istatistikler, rakamlar iner \u00e7\u0131kar, ger\u00e7e\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56637\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}