{"id":56599,"date":"2018-12-19T23:29:27","date_gmt":"2018-12-19T20:29:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56599"},"modified":"2018-12-19T23:29:27","modified_gmt":"2018-12-19T20:29:27","slug":"cetin-unsalan-fed-orta-yolcu-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-fed-orta-yolcu-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; FED orta yolcu mu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 beklentiye uygun olarak faiz oranlar\u0131 25 baz puan artt\u0131rd\u0131. Esasen istenen hi\u00e7 dokunmamas\u0131yd\u0131. Bunu da Trump\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemlerini de bahane g\u00f6stererek de biraz desteklediler. Fakat FED\u2019in artt\u0131rma e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lenince ba\u015fka bir hikaye yazmaya karar verdiler.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1828847754\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda artt\u0131rmas\u0131 o kadar \u00f6nemli de\u011filmi\u015f de, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin verece\u011fi mesajlar daha b\u00fcy\u00fck anlam ta\u015f\u0131yormu\u015f. Siz onu benim k\u00fclah\u0131ma anlat\u0131n. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2019 i\u00e7in ne s\u00f6ylenirse s\u00f6ylensin en az 3 faiz art\u0131r\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da beraberinde getirece\u011fini biliyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat a\u00e7\u0131klamadaki beklentiye dayand\u0131lar ve FED \u2018in 3 kez faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131ndan, 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6nelik tahminin \u00fczerinden piyasaya yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Ben \u015fahsen FED\u2019in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 karar\u0131yla birlikte, 2019\u2019ta en az 3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ihtimal oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu g\u00fcvercin olarak nitelendirilen a\u00e7\u0131klama niye yap\u0131ld\u0131? \u00d6ncelikle 2019 d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bilinmezliklerle ve olumsuz senaryolarla dolu. Bunun da \u00f6tesinde ABD, art\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7leri istedi\u011fi gibi y\u00f6netemiyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin Rusya \u2013 \u00c7in hatt\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131. \u0130ran ile ilgili ne yapaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 devam ediyor. Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ger\u00e7i ben bu ge\u00e7ilmenin Irak tipi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. S\u00f6zde oradan da orduyu \u00e7ekti ama halen b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yani Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019i b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve vazge\u00e7ti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler hata yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci olarak AB ekonomisiyle ilgili bilinmezlikler de ortada duruyor. Bir tarafta resesyon ger\u00e7e\u011fi, di\u011fer tarafta Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n durdurulaca\u011f\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 sinyali \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir tarafta daralmayla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131rken, \u00f6te tarafta piyasay\u0131 daralt\u0131c\u0131 eylemler i\u00e7inde olaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fcksek ihtimalle 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7alkant\u0131lar, kopu\u015flar ve par\u00e7alanmalara \u015fahit olaca\u011f\u0131z. Yani \u00c7in \u2013 ABD ekseninde, ABD \u2013 AB d\u00fczleminde ve Rusya-\u00c7in blo\u011fu ile rekabette kartlar yeniden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131yor ve Amerikan ekonomisi bunu kontrol etmeye yeterli gelmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evede AB\u2019nin \u00e7ip \u00fcretimiyle ilgili atak yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fon olu\u015fturdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 da bu do\u011frultuda okundu\u011funda, gelecek sene b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kur ve ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3421581499\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu noktada ben FED \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019nin orta yolcu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc verdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Asl\u0131nda bilinmezliklerin \u00e7ok oldu\u011fu ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin hasta oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, elindeki kozu saklama, biraz da rakibe bilgi vermeme e\u011filiminin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda beklenti 3\u2019ten 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 bu y\u00f6nde okumak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Ka\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise, s\u00fcre\u00e7teki geli\u015fmeler belirleyecektir. Bize d\u00f6nersek, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ka\u00e7 olursa olsun sorunumuz b\u00fcy\u00fck. Finansman bulmakta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn derinle\u015fece\u011fi, para gelse de kullan\u0131labilir maliyetlerde gelmeyece\u011fi aleni bir bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Hatta buna ilave olarak AB ekonomisi Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda hareket ederse, daha \u00e7ok daral\u0131r. Bu da sadece finansman y\u00f6n\u00fcnden de\u011fil, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019sini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz tek pazar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerinden de reel sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 ikinci bir soruna ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Netice itibariyle FED\u2019in faiz karar\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz olmad\u0131. Ama a\u00e7\u0131klamalar king oynarken kozunu saklayan oyuncu k\u0131vam\u0131nda, bl\u00f6f kokan hareketleri de ortaya serdi. Bu nedenle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece girdi\u011fini, bizim de dolar ve kazand\u0131ran ihracat ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir dizi sorunu ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, bunun da t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn 2019\u2019un bir numaral\u0131 g\u00fcndemini i\u015fsizlik yapacak tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fini \u015fimdiden s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1875723836\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: 2019 ho\u015f gelmiyor ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan olarak say\u0131lan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde en k\u0131r\u0131lgan konumundaki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin daha \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, daha az pop\u00fclizm yapmas\u0131 ve dayan\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gereken bir s\u00fcrece giriyoruz. Bu kadar ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bir anlay\u0131\u015f i\u00e7erisinde, se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131nda bunu yapabilecek miyiz? \u0130\u015fte en b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015fareti bu.<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 beklentiye uygun olarak faiz oranlar\u0131 25 baz puan artt\u0131rd\u0131. Esasen istenen hi\u00e7 dokunmamas\u0131yd\u0131. Bunu da Trump\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemlerini de bahane g\u00f6stererek de biraz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56599\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}