{"id":56552,"date":"2018-12-10T19:37:42","date_gmt":"2018-12-10T16:37:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56552"},"modified":"2018-12-10T19:37:42","modified_gmt":"2018-12-10T16:37:42","slug":"cetin-unsalan-faiz-dusurmek-ekonomiyi-buyutur-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-faiz-dusurmek-ekonomiyi-buyutur-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ekonomiyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr m\u00fc?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131yla y\u00fczle\u015fti. Y\u00fczde 1,6\u2019l\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortaya \u00e7\u0131ksa da, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,1\u2019lik bir daralmay\u0131 da do\u011fru okumak laz\u0131m.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1645855140\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Esasen tam bu noktada derin bir nefes al\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeliyiz. Sizce ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bu durumda s\u00fcrpriz bir \u015fey var m\u0131? Elbette hay\u0131r&#8230; Ortada bir s\u00fcrpriz yoksa bununla ilgili bir bunal\u0131m ya\u015faman\u0131n da, savunma mekanizmas\u0131 i\u00e7inde yalan makinesine d\u00f6nmenin de alemi yok.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle ger\u00e7e\u011fimizle y\u00fczle\u015ferek i\u015fe ba\u015flamal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, tam da sakinli\u011fimizi koruyup, ger\u00e7ekleri kabullenip, bu veriler do\u011frultusunda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm arama zaman\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eu ana kadarki halimizle zaten v\u00fccut geli\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in doping kullananlar\u0131n, ani bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f, depresyon, hatta \u00f6l\u00fcmle sonu\u00e7lanan s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine benzeyen bir foto\u011fraf veriyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve KGF gibi dopinglerle, amac\u0131 belli olmayan doping kullan\u0131m\u0131 bize elimizdeki sanal b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Onun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekonominin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten biliyorduk.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6yleyse ayn\u0131 hatalar\u0131 tekrarlamak yerine buradan \u00e7\u0131kmak ad\u0131na ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma zorunlulu\u011fumuz bulunuyor. Se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecine giderken, se\u00e7im harcamas\u0131 yapmay\u0131 al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k haline getirmi\u015f bir iktidarla bunu ne kadar ba\u015faraca\u011f\u0131z bilemiyorum ama; yapmam\u0131z gereken bu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n bize anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u015fey var. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi h\u0131zla t\u0131kanma noktas\u0131na gidiyor. \u0130hracat ve ithalat ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerinin \u00fclkede \u00fcretim yap\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yap\u0131lsa bile kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6zellik sergilemedi\u011fini anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yine \u00f6nemli bir detay i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetlerindeki y\u00fczde 19,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde asgari \u00fccret tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla ilgili y\u00fcksek boyutlu bir problemi de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze getirecek g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Son \u00e7eyrek rakam\u0131n\u0131n da bundan iyi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemek hayal olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6yleyse artan ihracatla de\u011fil, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u00fcretimle ilgilenerek i\u015fe ba\u015flamal\u0131, ithalata dayal\u0131 \u00fcretim yap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 acilen g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeliyiz. Bunun da yolu b\u0131kmadan usanmadan alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fim envanter \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4147026680\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yine a\u00e7\u0131klanan son \u00e7eyrekteki a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131ma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda tek sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan bir ekonomi modelinin, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ne kadar \u00e7abuk h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. \u0130n\u015faattan bahsediyorum&#8230; Ve yine en pop\u00fcler tart\u0131\u015fma, faiz meselesi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 yorumlayan i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 bir yanda \u2018daha \u00e7ok ihracat yapal\u0131m\u2019 mesaj\u0131 verirken, \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmeye devam etti. Di\u011fer yanda da bu oranlar\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131yla ilgili tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 tekrar g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktidar\u0131n da se\u00e7ime do\u011fru faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 a\u00e7maya niyetli oldu\u011funu, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fczde 16\u2019lar seviyesine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinden anl\u0131yoruz. \u015e\u00fcphesiz b\u00f6yle bir enflasyon da ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fil, ama buradan yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p bir tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flat\u0131lmak istendi\u011fi de g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>O zaman \u00e7ok net bir bi\u00e7imde \u015fu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bulal\u0131m. Olas\u0131 bir faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ekonominin tekrar b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini sa\u011flayabilir mi? Buna, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullar i\u00e7erisinde \u00e7ok net bir yan\u0131t vermek gerekirse, hay\u0131r&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-299931021\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kredilendirme mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n, bozulan bilan\u00e7olar \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fi, bankalar\u0131n risk alt\u0131na sokulup, \u00e7\u00f6p sepetine \u00e7evrilmesinin de daha b\u00fcy\u00fck problemleri beraberinde getirece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Ayr\u0131ca finans kesiminin para maliyeti de olduk\u00e7a pahal\u0131 noktaya geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Yani zorlasan\u0131z bile faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla geriletilebilmesi olanak dahilinde g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. Diyelim ki, bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p bunu yapt\u0131n\u0131z. Kredilerin hepsinin yine tek sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nlendirilmek istenece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu da zaten ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na sakat bir tutum. Bat\u0131k bir ka\u00e7 m\u00fcteahhidi kurtarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktan \u00f6te bir anlam ifade etmeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kadar konut stoku ortadayken, oradan kaynakl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme de zor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda kimse yeni in\u015faat yapmaz. Kaynaklar\u0131n di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin kullan\u0131m\u0131na sunulmas\u0131 da zor g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc orada da olas\u0131 bir kredilendirmenin \u00fcretime de\u011fil, \u00f6demelere gitme potansiyeli net g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki t\u00fcm bunlara ra\u011fmen faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrseniz ne olur? O zaman da pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 dolar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irir, tekrar \u00e7evrilemez maliyetleri reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcne getirirsiniz. G\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda da zaten hem enflasyon hem de faizdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f sizi ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktan\u0131zdan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc noktalara g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bence, ne panik i\u00e7erisinde davranmal\u0131; ne de cahil cesareti sergilenmeli&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Onun yerine d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin tatil noktas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru de\u011ferlendirip, sabit durman\u0131n yolu aranmal\u0131. Aksi takdirde g\u00f6sterilecek aceleci bir tav\u0131r ya da fikri sabitle yap\u0131lacak bir hamle, bizi telafisi daha olanaks\u0131z noktalara g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131yla y\u00fczle\u015fti. Y\u00fczde 1,6\u2019l\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortaya \u00e7\u0131ksa da, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,1\u2019lik bir daralmay\u0131 da do\u011fru&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56552\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}