{"id":56514,"date":"2018-12-02T20:42:54","date_gmt":"2018-12-02T17:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56514"},"modified":"2018-12-02T20:42:54","modified_gmt":"2018-12-02T17:42:54","slug":"cetin-unsalan-2019un-uretim-gercegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-2019un-uretim-gercegi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; 2019\u2019un \u00fcretim ger\u00e7e\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ihracatta rekorlar imza at\u0131yor; d\u00f6viz, faiz ve enflasyon \u00fc\u00e7geninde dengelenen s\u00fcre\u00e7ten s\u00f6z ediliyor ve ilgili bakan, \u2018her \u015fey g\u00fczel olacak\u2019 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, g\u00fcnlerdir bunu anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. Bu sakinle\u015fmeyi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirelim.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3585802157\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fakat g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum ki f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131p, bir tak\u0131m ger\u00e7eklerle y\u00fczle\u015fmek ve bunlar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrecek at\u0131l\u0131mlar yapmak yerine, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ge\u00e7ici durumu \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00e7 meselesi yapmak kolayc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ka\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Mart ay\u0131ndaki se\u00e7ime endekslenen bir siyaset yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde, yakla\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck riskleri yine g\u00f6rmezden geliyoruz. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u2018d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerden f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lara\u2019 kadar olu\u015fturulan yelpazenin i\u00e7inde nas\u0131lsa bir yenisini bulur ve herkesi inand\u0131r\u0131r\u0131z de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin hamaset taraf\u0131n\u0131, hamaset uzmanlar\u0131na b\u0131rak\u0131p ger\u00e7eklere bakal\u0131m. 2019\u2019a nas\u0131l bir devirle giriyoruz. Bunlardan birincisi G20 s\u00fcrecinden ve a\u00e7\u0131klanan bildiriden de anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 ve rekabetin keskinle\u015fece\u011fi bir d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgin\u00e7tir ortada bir Mart s\u00f6ylemi s\u00fcr\u00fcp gidiyor. Mesela \u0130ran ile ilgili yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda tolerans sa\u011flanan 8 \u00fclkenin s\u00fcresinin biti\u015f zaman\u0131 bu&#8230; G20 i\u00e7erisinden \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere g\u00f6z att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da \u00c7in ile ABD\u2019nin 90 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131nda ate\u015fkes uygulayacaklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Mesela Mart ay\u0131yla birlikte neler ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 biliyor muyuz? Se\u00e7imlerden bahsetmiyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyada nas\u0131l bir ortamda se\u00e7ime gidece\u011fimizi bilemiyorum. Zira bahsi ge\u00e7en s\u00fcrelerin bitiminden bizim se\u00e7imlere kadar neredeyse 30 g\u00fcn var.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar hesaplanamadan konsantrasyonunu i\u00e7te Mart ay\u0131 sonundaki se\u00e7imlere devretmi\u015f bir iktidar ile yine baz\u0131 \u015feylere haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok bariz g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Gelelim ihracat meselesine&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Evet Cumhuriyet tarihinin rekorunu k\u0131rd\u0131k. Zaten bir \u00f6nceki aydan 1 dolar fazla ihracat yap\u0131nca o rekor k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131rd\u0131k k\u0131rmas\u0131na da sizce de ortada bir gariplik yok mu? \u00dcretim yap\u0131s\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ithalata tam ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir T\u00fcrkiye, ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 23,8 ile azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda bunu nas\u0131l ba\u015fard\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3782831589\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yine ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fta hammadde sat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n dikkat \u00e7ekici bir bi\u00e7imde ivme sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir durum mu? \u00dcretim yap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fimize, t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u00fczde 25 iken, \u00fcreticinin y\u00fczde 45, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcreticinin yani ihracat\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu y\u00fczde 75 art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indeyken bunu yapman\u0131n s\u0131rr\u0131 ne?<\/p>\n<p>Muhtemelen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde birincil \u00fcr\u00fcn satt\u0131k. Yani madeni maden olarak \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p yollad\u0131k. \u0130kinci olarak 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran stoktaki mallardan sat\u0131yoruz. Peki yeniden \u00fcretmeye kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u015fimdiden \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f bir form\u00fcl var m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Yetmedi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te bir de asgari \u00fccret tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 var. Alanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zaten tart\u0131\u015fmaya gerek olmayan ve yerlerde s\u00fcr\u00fcnen oranlar, yeni bir zam dalgas\u0131yla birlikte, vergi ve primlerle \u00fcreticinin maliyetlerinin daha da tahamm\u00fcl edilemez noktada olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermiyor mu?<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 alt alta koydu\u011fumuzda i\u015fsizlik birinci s\u0131raya y\u00fckseliyor. Gelen enerji ve i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetleriyle, \u00fcreticinin enflasyonundaki makas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun fiyatlara yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6demelerdeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckle birlikte i\u015fsizlik art\u0131p, i\u00e7 piyasa daral\u0131rken, enflasyonun, faizin ve dolar\u0131n TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fini anlatm\u0131yor mu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4264820980\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki hamaset yapmak yerine, bu nispeten dinginlik ortam\u0131nda bunlara y\u00f6nelik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleri konu\u015fmak gerekmiyor mu? Elbette gerekmiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dedim ya konsantrasyon yerel se\u00e7imleri atlatmak. O zaman da insan kendi kendine yine ayn\u0131 \u015feyi soruyor: Kim kimin i\u00e7in var?<\/p>\n<p>Siyaset mi bizim i\u00e7in, biz mi siyaset\u00e7i i\u00e7in?<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ihracatta rekorlar imza at\u0131yor; d\u00f6viz, faiz ve enflasyon \u00fc\u00e7geninde dengelenen s\u00fcre\u00e7ten s\u00f6z ediliyor ve ilgili bakan, \u2018her \u015fey g\u00fczel olacak\u2019 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56514\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}