{"id":56501,"date":"2018-11-30T00:48:03","date_gmt":"2018-11-29T21:48:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56501"},"modified":"2018-11-30T00:48:03","modified_gmt":"2018-11-29T21:48:03","slug":"cetin-unsalan-dolar-riskine-dikkat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-dolar-riskine-dikkat\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Dolar riskine dikkat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u015eimdi dolar\u0131n bu kadar de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te bunu yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in baz\u0131lar\u0131 yine bana k\u0131zacakt\u0131r. Politikac\u0131lar\u0131 ve onlar\u0131n iflah olmaz fanatik taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, en \u00e7ok da kulaklar\u0131m\u0131 riski satacak av arayan avc\u0131lar \u00e7\u0131nlatacakt\u0131r.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2084147714\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fakat birinin hakk\u0131nda s\u00f6ylenecekleri g\u00f6ze al\u0131p yazmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc benim \u00f6nceli\u011fim T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ayakta kalmas\u0131 ve insanlara istihdam sa\u011flamaya devam etmesi. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kimin ne kazan\u0131p kaybetti\u011fi beni \u00e7ok ilgilendirmiyor. Zira \u00fclkemin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131n\u0131n burada oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar \/ TL cephesindeki gev\u015feme ile birlikte bir rehavet olu\u015ftu\u011fu dikkatimi \u00e7ekiyor. Bu ayn\u0131 sinsi bir hastal\u0131\u011fa benzer. Riski y\u00fcksek bir rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z varsa, ipin ucunu b\u0131rak\u0131rsan\u0131z kendinizi telafi edilemez noktalarda bulabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n arka arkaya dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kaybedece\u011fini e\u015f zamanl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor olmas\u0131 zaten yeterince \u015f\u00fcpheli bir durum olu\u015fturuyor. Burada da t\u00fcm hesab\u0131 FED\u2019in 2019 senesinde en fazla iki faiz artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 senaryosunun \u00fczerine kurgulam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada tezini tekrarlad\u0131. FED\u2019in beklenenden az faiz artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc tekrarlad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa, Japonya ve \u00c7in gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomilerin finans piyasalar\u0131na daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma e\u011filiminde olmas\u0131n\u0131n da dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne zemin te\u015fkil edece\u011fini s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. Elbette de bizim finans\u00e7\u0131lar da olay\u0131n \u00fczerine atlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sadece bu a\u00e7\u0131klama bile \u2018kimin i\u00e7in\u2019 sorusunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 o kadar finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n etraf\u0131nda d\u00f6ner halde g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar ki, di\u011fer pencerelere bakmak ak\u0131llar\u0131na bile gelmiyor. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, bunun reel sekt\u00f6r odakl\u0131 korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin artaca\u011f\u0131 ve bizim ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda daha \u00e7ok zorlanarak, yeterli dolar teminini yapmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6rmek bile istemiyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley\u2019in tezi bir tarafa, ilerleyen saatlerde de zaten FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye devam edeceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yine yay\u0131mlanan FED tutanaklar\u0131 da, t\u00fcm \u00fcyelerin yak\u0131n zamanda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ortaya koydu. Ayr\u0131ca tedirgin olduklar\u0131 tek konunun tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin bor\u00e7luluk oran\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve bizden de g\u00f6rece farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131p dolar \/ TL ile ilgili bizi ilgilendiren olas\u0131l\u0131klara bakarsak d\u00fcn yap\u0131lan iki a\u00e7\u0131klamaya daha g\u00f6z atmam\u0131z laz\u0131m. Bunlardan birincisi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde mevduat\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberiydi. Bu zaten mevduat fakiri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde derinle\u015fen yeni bir problemi de beraberinde getirir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-736807875\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Zaten yurti\u00e7i mevduatlar\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ad\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00fclkemizde, finans kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n mevduatlardan d\u0131\u015far\u0131 kaymas\u0131 ya yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekstra bor\u00e7lanma ihtimalini ortaya koyar ya da kredi mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n daha da s\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da maliyetli hale gelmesini do\u011furur.<\/p>\n<p>Nereden bakarsan\u0131z bak\u0131n, bor\u00e7 \u00f6demelerinde reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finans kullanmak ad\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ya da maliyetli oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6neme giriyoruz demektir. Ayr\u0131ca bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmayla dengelemeye y\u00f6nelmesi ihtimali de yine T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin dolar talep edece\u011fini ve maliyet \u00f6deyece\u011fini bize anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcn\u00fcn ikinci a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 da Fitch\u2019ten gelen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere sermaye giri\u015finde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik tespitini ortaya koydu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yd\u0131. Bunun da risk primi zaten \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olan \u00fclkemiz ad\u0131na ho\u015f bir haber olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ortadayken, olas\u0131 gelirlerle kesin giderlerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak zorunda olan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin dolar talebinin \u015fiddetlenece\u011fi ve istedi\u011fi oranlarda ve maliyetlerde para bulmakta s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k\u00e7a dolar \/ TL\u2019nin dolar lehine yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edece\u011fini bize anlat\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3325387407\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l kelam, geldi\u011fimiz seviyeler sizi yan\u0131ltmas\u0131n. Dolar\u2019\u0131n ka\u00e7 TL olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek kumarbazl\u0131\u011fa girer. Ama akl\u0131n\u0131zdan \u00e7\u0131karmaman\u0131z gereken y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin halen a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011fu ve geli\u015fmelerin de bunu destekledi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p>S\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m bu past\u0131rma yaz\u0131na aldanmaman\u0131z\u0131 ve haz\u0131r kur eskiye oranla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerdeyken riskinizi azaltmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenizi \u0131srarla tavsiye ediyorum.<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eimdi dolar\u0131n bu kadar de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te bunu yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in baz\u0131lar\u0131 yine bana k\u0131zacakt\u0131r. Politikac\u0131lar\u0131 ve onlar\u0131n iflah olmaz fanatik taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56501\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}