{"id":56481,"date":"2018-11-26T19:46:40","date_gmt":"2018-11-26T16:46:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56481"},"modified":"2018-11-26T19:46:40","modified_gmt":"2018-11-26T16:46:40","slug":"cetin-unsalan-dolarin-bu-seviyesini-kullanin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-dolarin-bu-seviyesini-kullanin\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Dolar\u0131n bu seviyesini kullan\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Dolardaki gev\u015feme herkesin g\u00fcndeminde&#8230; Asl\u0131nda daha \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan nokta, bu seviyelerin ne zamana kadar korunabilece\u011fi&#8230; Bundan hareketle meseleyi yorumlarsan\u0131z, zaten herkeste TL\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz oldu\u011funa dair bir kanaat var demektir.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2823265452\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ben bir s\u00fcre daha bu seviyelerin korunabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. 5 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak inmesi \u00e7ok muhtemel g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. \u015eayet petrol fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00f6yle devam ederse, rehavete kap\u0131l\u0131p enflasyonda bir gerileme olmadan cahil cesaretiyle ani bir faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yap\u0131lmazsa ve hesapta olmayan siyasal bir kriz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmazsa, bir nefes alma molas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Peki ne zamana kadar? Baz\u0131 yorumcular bu seviyelerin Mart 2019 se\u00e7imlerine kadar korunabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Ben bu kadar cesur olamayaca\u011f\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomik ger\u00e7eklerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 FED\u2019in 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda daha az faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla y\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015ftirebilece\u011fi tezi \u00fczerinden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. \u00d6yleyse bir sa\u011flama yapal\u0131m. FED\u2019in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz artt\u0131rmaya devam etmesi halinde, 2019 senesinde Trump\u2019a ra\u011fmen 2\u2019den fazla faiz artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek gerekir. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131 pas ge\u00e7meden b\u00f6yle bir yorum, olmayan bir hikayeye inanmak anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyeyi ne kadar koruyaca\u011f\u0131 da \u015f\u00fcpheli. Zira ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ambargo ile ilgili bizim de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fumuz 8 \u00fclkeye verilen ge\u00e7ici s\u00fcre Mart itibariyle sonlanacak. Mart ay\u0131na gelmeden bunun geriliminin hissedilmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrayna\u2019dan ya\u015fananlar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sorun \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc onun petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te Rusya\u2019y\u0131 rahats\u0131z etmekten, oyalamaktan ve konsantrasyonunu da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktan ba\u015fka bir rol\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar \/ TL cephesindeki gerilemenin de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik ger\u00e7ekleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Belki Noel d\u00f6nemini ve sene sonu bilan\u00e7olar kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131na kadar bir tolerans s\u00fcresi olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 alt alta koydu\u011funuzda \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin gerilemesinden petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki seviyenin d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde daralma sinyali vermesine kadar bir dizi riskle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu bilmek gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-169466083\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>O zaman \u00f6ncelikle bu s\u00fcrecin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgisini cebimize koyarak hareket etmeliyiz. Cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00fcretmeden, stoktan mal satarak idare etti\u011fini bize net bir bi\u00e7imde anlat\u0131yor. Bunun da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011fu bilinmelidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca ben enflasyonun da dolar ve baz etkisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir gerilemeyi bize ya\u015fataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Gerek bug\u00fcnk\u00fc oran\u0131yla enflasyonun, gerekse de dolar\u0131n zaten T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine hasar verdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. 5,50 seviyelerinin de d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemez noktam\u0131z oldu\u011funu c\u00fcmle alem biliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki t\u00fcm bu foto\u011fraf\u0131 bireysel olarak y\u00f6netemeyece\u011fimize g\u00f6re ne yapmal\u0131y\u0131z? D\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lusu i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyeleri f\u0131rsat bilerek pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, hasar\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f\u0131 vermesinde fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Vatanda\u015f\u0131n da dinginlik kokan bu moladan yararlan\u0131p, h\u0131zla bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131, yeni ve gereksiz t\u00fcketimlere y\u00f6nelmemesi \u00f6nemlidir. Ben bu iklimin daha \u00f6nce de yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m gibi \u2018past\u0131rma yaz\u0131\u2019 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2896790451\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eayet bu seviyeleri, bor\u00e7 kapatmak ve risk azaltmak i\u00e7in kullanmazsan\u0131z, \u015fimdiden olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleyeyim. Sonra \u00e7ok pi\u015fman olursunuz.<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolardaki gev\u015feme herkesin g\u00fcndeminde&#8230; Asl\u0131nda daha \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan nokta, bu seviyelerin ne zamana kadar korunabilece\u011fi&#8230; Bundan hareketle meseleyi yorumlarsan\u0131z, zaten herkeste TL\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz oldu\u011funa dair&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56481\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}