{"id":56334,"date":"2018-11-02T01:41:56","date_gmt":"2018-11-01T22:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56334"},"modified":"2018-11-02T01:49:13","modified_gmt":"2018-11-01T22:49:13","slug":"cetin-unsalan-rakamlar-yangin-sondurmez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-rakamlar-yangin-sondurmez\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Rakamlar yang\u0131n s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmez"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde sanayiciler kendi aralar\u0131nda \u2018ay sonu \u00e7eklerinden ka\u00e7 tanesi d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u2019 diye sohbet etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131ysa, durum zannetti\u011finizden acil demektir. Bir tarafta konkordatolar, \u00f6te tarafta k\u0131r\u0131lan \u00f6demeler zincirinin g\u00f6lgesinde ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin mart se\u00e7imleri endeksli tavr\u0131 ne yaz\u0131k ki sorunlar\u0131 i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz hale getiriyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1284663830\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mesela d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 itibariyle y\u00fczde 77 azald\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 55\u2019li oranlardan y\u00fczde 88,5\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ne kadar mutluluk verici de\u011fil mi? Ger\u00e7ekten d\u00fcz mant\u0131kla bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda insan\u0131n sevinmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat ne yaz\u0131k ki rakamlar ger\u00e7e\u011fi gizlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ihracat\u0131 artan bir \u00fclkede, \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z s\u00fcrece, bu oranlara sevinmek yerine endi\u015felenmek gerekiyor. Elbette ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de, i\u015fin muhataplar\u0131 da olaya buradan bakmak istemeyecekler.<\/p>\n<p>Lakin net bir sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131na bakarak sa\u011flamay\u0131 yapabiliriz. Bizler \u00fcretim yap\u0131m\u0131zdaki ithal girdi oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebildik mi? Hay\u0131r&#8230; Do\u011fru bir envanter yap\u0131lanmas\u0131yla yerli tedarik oranlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131rabildik mi? Hay\u0131r&#8230; Teknolojik ya da d\u00fcnyada olmayan bir bulu\u015fa imza at\u0131p, d\u00fcnyada bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z \u00fcreticisi ve sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck m\u00fc? Hay\u0131r&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fine g\u00f6re daralan d\u0131\u015f ticareti ve ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselmeyi ba\u015fka t\u00fcrl\u00fc okumam\u0131z gerekiyor. Bunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki sene ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcden itibaren aramam\u0131z \u015fart. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fczde 7,3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi inceledi\u011finizde, \u00fcretimin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n stoklara yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. Bunu o zaman da yazd\u0131k; \u00e7izdik; anlatt\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat kimsenin i\u015fine gelmedi\u011fi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin rakamsal b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcne kap\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in buradan y\u00fckselen alarm\u0131 g\u00f6rmediler ya da g\u00f6rmek istemediler. Bug\u00fcn ithalat oran\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa, bunun tek bir anlam\u0131 var. Ger\u00e7ekten \u00fcretim yapam\u0131yoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretimimiz neredeyse ithal ikameli hammadde ve ara mallar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar cinsinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z al\u0131mlarda durgunluk varsa, \u00fcretiminizde de s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ba\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f demektir. Reel sekt\u00f6r \u015fu anda \u00fcretim yapm\u0131yor; aksine stokla yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki erimeyi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor. Elbette bu da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilecek bir \u015fey de\u011fil. En az\u0131ndan mal paraya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam bu a\u015famada da ciddi \u00e7eli\u015fkiler var. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada evrak d\u00f6nerken, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fterisinde yani ihracatta vadeler ya da fiyat k\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi. \u015eu an ihracat\u00e7\u0131 cephede dillendirilmeyen ve konu\u015fulmak istenmeyen bir ger\u00e7ekten s\u00f6z ediyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-748803854\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dcretimde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck kan\u0131t\u0131 ise, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131. Son bir ka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r sistematik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlenirken, Ekim ay\u0131nda da yine y\u00fczde 0,8\u2019lik bir gerileme a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bunun bile iyimser bir rakam oldu\u011funu unutmay\u0131n. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclkede kapasite tek vardiya \u00fczerinden hesaplan\u0131yor. Oysa yat\u0131r\u0131mlar minimum 2, do\u011fal s\u00fcrecinde ise 3 vardiya \u00fczerinden yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yani kapasitesi kullanmayan, ama elinde stokta biriktirdi\u011fi mal\u0131 satarak d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece azaltan reel sekt\u00f6r ger\u00e7e\u011fi mutluluk de\u011fil, uyar\u0131 vesilesidir. Zira o malzemeler tekrar yerine konulurken \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan maliyetler s\u00f6z konusu olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 rakam oyununu ekim enflasyonunda da g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bakan Albayrak d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi konusunda \u00e7ok \u0131srarl\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019ten yetkili isimleri y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyondan sonra g\u00f6revden al\u0131p, \u015fimdi rakam oyunlar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131karabilirsiniz. Bunun bile g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsem de imkans\u0131z de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat gerek d\u0131\u015f ticarette g\u00f6rece olumlu tablo, gerekse de olas\u0131 bir enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ger\u00e7e\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor. Bir tarafta firmalar\u0131n\u0131z eriyor, i\u015ften adam \u00e7\u0131karmaya ya da konkordato s\u00fcreciyle k\u0131r\u0131lmalar ya\u015famaya devam ediyor; di\u011fer tarafta da vatanda\u015f soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bug\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyonun bile \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde maliyetle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1820392605\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yang\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ne kadar analiz etmeden ya\u015far ya da ne kadar rakamlarla oynarsan\u0131z oynay\u0131n yang\u0131n s\u00f6nm\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc iktidar mart ay\u0131n\u0131 az hasarla atlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, yang\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fi sokakta ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde sanayiciler kendi aralar\u0131nda \u2018ay sonu \u00e7eklerinden ka\u00e7 tanesi d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u2019 diye sohbet etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131ysa, durum zannetti\u011finizden acil demektir. Bir tarafta konkordatolar, \u00f6te tarafta k\u0131r\u0131lan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56334\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}