{"id":56228,"date":"2018-10-15T19:00:52","date_gmt":"2018-10-15T16:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56228"},"modified":"2018-10-15T18:29:03","modified_gmt":"2018-10-15T15:29:03","slug":"cetin-unsalan-nefes-alin-ama-rehavete-kapilmayin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-nefes-alin-ama-rehavete-kapilmayin\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Nefes al\u0131n ama rehavete kap\u0131lmay\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Rahip Brunson olay\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar \/ TL cephesindeki gev\u015feme dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bak\u0131n rahibin b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n hukuki boyutuna girmiyorum bile&#8230; Onu uzmanlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirsin, biz i\u015fin ekonomik foto\u011fraf\u0131na g\u00f6z atal\u0131m.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1113649698\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Herkesin dilinde, \u2018sorunlu d\u00f6nemin sonuna m\u0131 geldik\u2019 s\u00f6ylentilerini duyuyorum. Asl\u0131nda bence insanlar temenniyle, inanmak istedikleriyle, ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekleri kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha \u00f6nce de belirtti\u011fim gibi Brunson olay\u0131 da dahil, jeopolitik riskler, sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n dozun art\u0131ran, gelece\u011fimiz noktaya bizi zaman\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ta\u015f\u0131yan etkenlerden ba\u015fka bir \u015fey de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Yani bu foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek do\u011fru olmaz. Zira dolar\u0131n temelde y\u00fckseli\u015fi, bizim d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u00e7a\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131m\u0131z, dolar bazl\u0131 bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z, yeterli dolar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n olmamas\u0131 ve buna ilave olarak d\u00fcnyadaki parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n ve korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 nedeniyle olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 da Brunson olay\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde \u00e7ok etkisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kere de olsa s\u00f6yledi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Aral\u0131k 2018 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la da uzanan bir bi\u00e7imde FED\u2019in faiz artt\u0131racak olmas\u0131, AB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 ve bizim ihracatta birim \/ kazan\u00e7 dengesinde kan kaybediyor olmam\u0131z g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/p>\n<p>Meseleye jeopolitik riskler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da baksan\u0131z, \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde bence Brunson olay\u0131ndan daha riskli bir vaka kap\u0131m\u0131zda. \u0130ran\u2019a kas\u0131m ay\u0131 itibariyle uygulanacak ambargo talebi.. Burada karar\u0131n\u0131z ne olursa olsun ya \u0130ran temelli ya da ABD temelli bir risk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kap\u0131m\u0131zda bulaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca bunun \u015fu an 80 dolar seviyesinde gezinen brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma riski nedeniyle enflasyonumuza negatif etki edecek dolardan sonra ikinci bir unsur olarak hayat\u0131m\u0131za girece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Gerek petrol, gerekse de dolar kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki pay\u0131 da dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda y\u00fckselen bir enflasyon ve faiz talebini tekrar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Belki t\u00fcm bu foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde nefes almam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacak tek unsur; avronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rece de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 olabilir. Tek pazar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131s\u0131 haline gelen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin dolar \/ avro makas\u0131ndaki farktan nefes almas\u0131 olas\u0131. Burada iyi ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc belki de ihracat yap\u0131m\u0131zdan ve dolar giderimizden kaynakl\u0131 parite fark\u0131ndan gelecek buradaki deste\u011fe ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-357024374\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Netice itibariyle \u015fu an ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan olumlu hava sizi yan\u0131ltmas\u0131n. Buna g\u00fcvenerek yeni bor\u00e7lanmalara ya da sorunun ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kanaatine kap\u0131lmay\u0131n. Zira bu ruh hali, ileride telafisi olanaks\u0131z sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 beraberinde do\u011furur. Bu \u00f6nerimi hem reel sekt\u00f6r hem de ekonomi y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in ortaya koyuyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131, tamamen bizim dolara olan ihtiya\u00e7 \u015fiddetimizden ve yanl\u0131\u015f ekonomi politikalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck geli\u015fmelerin bununla ilgisi yok. Onlar sadece dalgalanmalara neden olur. Ayr\u0131ca 5 ve \u00fczeri bir dolar kuru zaten reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in de, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in de s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 oranlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc denilen dolar\u0131n, halen tehlike s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmay\u0131n. \u00c7ok s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7tik ve \u015fimdilik hafif bir nefes alma molas\u0131 veriyoruz. Fakat bu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki takvime bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcrecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle dalgal\u0131 denizle bo\u011fu\u015furken bu dinginle\u015fmeden nefes alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131n, ama asla rehavete kap\u0131lmay\u0131n. Zira sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z t\u00fcm heybetiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde duruyor ve f\u0131rt\u0131na ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-106221138\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Temkinli olmay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131rsan\u0131z, bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in mutlu olur; ama yar\u0131n daha \u00e7ok \u00fcz\u00fcl\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz. \u015eimdiden uyarmak istedim.<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rahip Brunson olay\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar \/ TL cephesindeki gev\u015feme dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bak\u0131n rahibin b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n hukuki boyutuna girmiyorum bile&#8230; Onu uzmanlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirsin, biz i\u015fin ekonomik foto\u011fraf\u0131na&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56228"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56228\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56228"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}