{"id":56184,"date":"2018-10-10T19:00:14","date_gmt":"2018-10-10T16:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56184"},"modified":"2018-10-10T16:04:23","modified_gmt":"2018-10-10T13:04:23","slug":"cetin-unsalan-para-daralirken-dis-ticaret-alarmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-para-daralirken-dis-ticaret-alarmi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Para daral\u0131rken d\u0131\u015f ticaret alarm\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Medyaya d\u00fc\u015fen, ekonomiye ili\u015fkin biri veri, iki a\u00e7\u0131klama birlikte okunmas\u0131 gereken bir \u00f6zellik ta\u015f\u0131yor. Birincisi d\u0131\u015f ticaret endekslerindeki foto\u011fraf, di\u011feri de IMF\u2019nin d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131 i\u00e7eren raporu&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3603200895\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eayet bu ikisini bir arada okumaz ve \u015fimdiden bir \u00f6nlem almazsak, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. \u015e\u00fcphesiz umursamay\u0131p, bir tarafta 165 milyar dolara ula\u015fan ihracatla \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcp, di\u011fer tarafta da IMF\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler ad\u0131na bizim gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerle u\u011fra\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ederek, kendimizi kand\u0131rmaya da devam edebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da bir se\u00e7enek ama ben daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i davranmay\u0131 tercih ediyorum. \u00d6ncelikle AB\u2019nin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda bilhassa yaz aylar\u0131ndan itibaren faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme niyeti, art\u0131k para politikas\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun FED\u2019in 2019 sonuna kadar olas\u0131 5 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde bizim gibi acil paraya ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler ad\u0131na k\u00f6t\u00fc haber oldu\u011funu belirtmek gerekiyor. \u015eayet ge\u00e7mi\u015fte kasan\u0131z\u0131 doldurmam\u0131\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret yap\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 sorunu atlatacak \u00f6zelli\u011fe b\u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcrmediyseniz, problem ya\u015fayacaks\u0131n\u0131z demektir.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim bu ger\u00e7e\u011fe ilave IMF\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya&#8230; IMF Global Finansal \u0130stikrar Raporu\u2019ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re, 2019 geli\u015fen ya da bizim sevdi\u011fimiz tabiriyle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ad\u0131na ho\u015f bir haber vermiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Son 6 ayda finansal risklerin y\u00fckseldi\u011finin, jeopolitik risklerin bu alg\u0131y\u0131 daha da artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re, gelecek y\u0131l geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha da h\u0131zlanabilir. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda yeni para gelmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemeye de san\u0131r\u0131m gerek yok.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda gerek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, gerekse de k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan paray\u0131 bulamayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ya da \u00e7ok daha pahal\u0131 maliyetlerle edinmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette bir ihtimal daha var. Finansal piyasalardan elde edemedi\u011finiz paray\u0131, ihracat hamlesiyle \u00fclkenize \u00e7ekebilirsiniz. Fakat burada da d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 veriyor olman\u0131z laz\u0131m. Oysa ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ama, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yeni bir \u015fey yapmadan darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te resesyona girdi\u011fimiz ve daha \u00e7ok mal sat\u0131p, daha az para kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ortada.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2482308534\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret endekslerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda da bunu net bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. A\u011fustos ay\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ihracat birim endeksi y\u00fczde 0,6 azal\u0131rken, ithalat birim endeksi y\u00fczde 4,3 artt\u0131. Bunun T\u00fcrk\u00e7e terc\u00fcmesi \u015fu: Art\u0131k daha az para kazan\u0131p, ithalat i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok para \u00f6d\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Yani finansal bazda bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda zarar\u0131m\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ama ihracat\u0131m\u0131z 165 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu iyi bir \u015fey de\u011fil mi? Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lla mukayese etti\u011fimizde ihracat\u0131m\u0131zda miktar\u0131n T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re A\u011fustos\u2019ta bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re, yine ayn\u0131 aylar itibariyle ithalattaki miktar, y\u00fczde 25,9 geriliyor. Yani daha az ithal edip, daha \u00e7ok para \u00f6demi\u015fiz. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fark\u0131n\u0131n ve ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki gerilemenin olumlu say\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in, bizim \u00fcretimdeki ithal ikame oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat burada ufak tefek oynamalar olsa da, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yaratacak de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu konuya acilen \u00f6nem vermesi gerekiyor. Aksi takdirde d\u00fcnyada paran\u0131n daha pahal\u0131 hale geldi\u011fi, bizim de daha az mal al\u0131p daha \u00e7ok para \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz ve aksine daha \u00e7ok mal sat\u0131p daha az kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir foto\u011frafta i\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme \u015fans\u0131m\u0131z yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3205160103\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Belki biraz kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu ama sorun git gide b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. O nedenle tekrar ve basit\u00e7e \u00f6zetleyeyim. Daha \u00e7ok mal sat\u0131p daha az para kazan\u0131yoruz. Daha az mal al\u0131p, daha \u00e7ok para \u00f6d\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 d\u00f6viz \u00fczerinden yap\u0131yoruz ve bunu devam ettirmek i\u00e7in yeni kayna\u011fa ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var. 2019 da kaynaklar\u0131n daha da k\u0131s\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olarak geliyor. Sorun a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Medyaya d\u00fc\u015fen, ekonomiye ili\u015fkin biri veri, iki a\u00e7\u0131klama birlikte okunmas\u0131 gereken bir \u00f6zellik ta\u015f\u0131yor. Birincisi d\u0131\u015f ticaret endekslerindeki foto\u011fraf, di\u011feri de IMF\u2019nin d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56184","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56184\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}