{"id":56142,"date":"2018-10-04T20:31:38","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T17:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56142"},"modified":"2018-10-04T20:31:38","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T17:31:38","slug":"cetin-unsalan-ekonomide-iran-riski-buyuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-ekonomide-iran-riski-buyuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Ekonomide \u0130ran riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 talebiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde dengeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da baz\u0131 denklemleri beraberinde getirdi. T\u00fcrkiye ve AB\u2019de baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara uymak konusunda isteksizliklerini ortaya koydular.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3425231254\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Trump, meseleyi ilk ortaya att\u0131\u011f\u0131nda burada hesap edilemeyecek tavr\u0131n Rusya\u2019dan gelece\u011fini yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik dengelerinde ayn\u0131 kutupta g\u00f6z\u00fcken \u0130ran ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn enerjide rakip oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmek olanaks\u0131zd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ben o g\u00fcn de, bug\u00fcn de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 durmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu hem arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fimiz, hem de tek bir al\u0131c\u0131ya mahkum olma riskimiz nedeniyle hayati bir ba\u015fl\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca bir kom\u015fuyla daha problem ya\u015farsak, meseleyi toparlanamayacak noktaya getirme riskimiz bulunuyor. Ve yine bir di\u011fer sorun da \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 takip edecek, ikinci bir \u00fclke olma ihtimalimizin de \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu. T\u00fcrkiye bu konuda mutlaka ba\u015fta Rusya olmak \u00fczere, yapt\u0131r\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan Avrupa \u00fclkelerini de arkas\u0131n\u0131 alarak herkesi ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcphesiz bunu da kimsenin ciddiye almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018eyler g\u00f6lgesinde\u2019 de\u011fil, uluslararas\u0131 diplomasi trafi\u011fi i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmelidir. Bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazmam\u0131n temel nedeni baz\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fc kokular\u0131n gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Mesela Rus Lukoil \u015firketinin \u0130ran\u2019dan al\u0131m\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemlidir. Yani Rusya, bu denklem i\u00e7erisinde rakip konumuyla ambargoyu desteklemese de, ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer tarafa \u00e7evirme ihtimali olan \u00fclkedir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu i\u015fin siyasi y\u00f6n\u00fc; bir de ekonomik olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak bir a\u00e7maz\u0131m\u0131z var. Tek sat\u0131c\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi risklerinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmi\u015ftim. Lakin bununla birlikte bug\u00fcn 85 dolarlar seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kan petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n daha da y\u00fckselmesi ihtimali var.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bu fakt\u00f6r de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6z yumma ihtimalini y\u00fckseltiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 maliyet noktas\u0131 olan 50 dolarlar\u0131n ne kadar \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, Rusya o kadar \u00e7ok para kazan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-758409752\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00fcnya petrol \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131 burada kritik nokta. Neredeyse g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol \u00fcretiminin \u00fc\u00e7te birine yakla\u015fan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ad\u0131na daha fazla hamle yapmas\u0131 zor. Bundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Trump, Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik bir beyanatta bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>Tehditle kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bu beyanatta, g\u00fcvenli\u011fini \u00fcstlendi\u011fi \u00fclkelerin bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretimi artt\u0131rmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Elbette bu da ayr\u0131 bir \u00e7eli\u015fki. ABD, Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin g\u00fcvenlik\u00e7isi mi, yoksa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 m\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Neticede bu sopayla g\u00fczel silah sat\u0131yor; bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeye salma \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran Petrol Bakan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Habibullan Bitaraf\u2019\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada verdi\u011fi bilgilere g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya petrol rezervlerinin y\u00fczde 9\u2019u, gaz rezervlerinin de y\u00fczde 18\u2019i \u0130ran\u2019da bulunuyor. Buradaki bir k\u0131s\u0131t, do\u011falgaz ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte siyasi yan\u0131 bir tarafa koysan\u0131z bile, iktisadi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 burada ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u015fu an itibariyle zaten 85 dolara ula\u015fan Brent varil fiyat\u0131yla dolar ve faizin ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc k\u0131skaca girdi. Bu fiyatlar\u0131n daha fazla y\u00fckselmesi kald\u0131r\u0131lamaz maliyetleri de beraberinde getirecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-879407685\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda zaten kaybetti\u011fi rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fi ikinci bir darbe alacakt\u0131r. Do\u011falgaz ile ilgili a\u00e7maz ise daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. Burada bir geli\u015fme olursa, son aylarda arka arkaya ya\u015fanan zamlar\u0131 arar oluruz.<\/p>\n<p>Elektri\u011fimizin \u00fcretiminde de neredeyse y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131nda do\u011falgaz kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, bu durumun sadece cebimize etki etmeyece\u011fi, so\u011fukta kalma riski ortaya koymayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. T\u00fcm maliyetlerimizi zincirleme tetikler.<\/p>\n<p>Hem vatanda\u015f\u0131n ya\u015fam kalitesindeki bozulma h\u0131zlan\u0131r, hem de reel sekt\u00f6r yeni bir sorunu kuca\u011f\u0131nda bulur. Zaten son enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 \u00fcreticinin enflasyonunun, t\u00fcketicinin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n iki kat\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor. Ya arka arkaya gelen zamlar enflasyon, enflasyon faiz do\u011furur ya da \u00e7ok say\u0131da firmam\u0131z\u0131 kaybederek, patlam\u0131\u015f kronik bir i\u015fsizlik ger\u00e7e\u011fimiz olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcphesiz bu maliyetlerin dolar talebini artt\u0131rmas\u0131yla dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi noktay\u0131 da takdirlerinize b\u0131rak\u0131yorum. Bizim biraz yumurta kap\u0131ya gelince i\u015f yapma hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z vard\u0131r. Nitekim ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, yeterince ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ortada. O zaman bug\u00fcnden itibaren bu konuya \u00f6zel \u00f6nlem almal\u0131, diplomasiyi geli\u015ftirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n<p>Zira sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hem siyasi hem de iktisadi a\u00e7\u0131dan bizim i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Sesimi duyan var m\u0131? Daha \u00f6nce duyulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 da, onun i\u00e7in soruyorum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 talebiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde dengeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da baz\u0131 denklemleri beraberinde getirdi. T\u00fcrkiye ve AB\u2019de baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara uymak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}