{"id":56031,"date":"2018-09-20T21:36:40","date_gmt":"2018-09-20T18:36:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=56031"},"modified":"2018-09-20T21:39:05","modified_gmt":"2018-09-20T18:39:05","slug":"cetin-unsalan-2021-hedefleri-ne-anlatiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-2021-hedefleri-ne-anlatiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; 2021 hedefleri ne anlat\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Ekonomide merakla beklenen program a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir programdan \u00e7ok hedefler \u00fczerine kurgulanm\u0131\u015f bir rakamlar manzumesi demek daha do\u011fru. Dengeleme, de\u011fi\u015fim ve disiplin ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefler ne anlat\u0131yor?<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4124584368\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle madem rakamlar \u00fczerine kurguland\u0131; temenniyle buradan ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Umar\u0131m bu sefer yan\u0131lmazlar. Yanl\u0131\u015f okumad\u0131n\u0131z, yan\u0131lmazlar diyorum zira bug\u00fcne kadar orta vadeli programlarda, ara revizyonlara ra\u011fmen tutturulabilen neredeyse hedef yok.<\/p>\n<p>Bundan yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacaklar ki bu seferki plana, YEP yani Yeni Ekonomik Program ad\u0131 verildi. Yani ad\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirip, eski tutturulmayan hedefleri \u00e7\u00f6pe atarak, yeni bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapma niyeti olarak okuyabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130sim de\u011fi\u015ftirerek bu i\u015fler oluyor mu bilmem; ama umar\u0131m oluyordur. Zira gelecek s\u00fcre\u00e7 gerek siyasi, gerekse ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan zorlu s\u0131navlar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koyuyor. D\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik geli\u015fmelerin de, jeopolitik risklerin de aleyhimize oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te bu kez yan\u0131lma l\u00fcks\u00fcm\u00fcz yok.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette b\u00f6ylesine bir program\u0131 niyet okuyarak analiz edemeyiz. O zaman 2021 y\u0131l\u0131na kadarki hedeflerin bize ne anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakmam\u0131z gerekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 851 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar kuru kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki y\u0131pranmam\u0131z dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle 763 milyar dolara iniyoruz. Gariptir ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmemiz a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015fken, neden baz al\u0131nan kriter birinci \u00e7eyrek olmu\u015ftur? Cevab\u0131 belli; zira oradaki elde edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha y\u00fcksek, dolar kuru daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Baz al\u0131nan dolar kuru 3,65&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Hadi diyelim ki bu anla\u015f\u0131labilir masum bir siyasi kurnazl\u0131k; g\u00f6rmezden gelelim. Peki 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finin sonunda ekonomimizin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ne olacak? Dikkatinizi tekrar \u00e7ekerim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131ldan itibaren t\u00fcm hedeflerde ikinci \u00e7eyrek baz al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, sadece bu sene birinci \u00e7eyrek. Neyse, dedim ya g\u00f6rmezden gelelim.<\/p>\n<p>2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 926 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomi olmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Peki bu ne anlat\u0131yor? Bu hedefle 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 ekonominin aras\u0131na girilme olana\u011f\u0131 kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 resmen kabulleniliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3851120657\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Garip bir \u015fekilde de dolar \/ TL hedefi a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131yor. Fakat b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerden yola \u00e7\u0131karak yap\u0131lan hesaplamalar, 2021\u2019de ortalama dolar kurunun 6,20 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bununla birlikte ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelirimiz 11 bin dolar\u0131 bile bulmuyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu an 10 bin 602 dolara inan\u0131yorsan\u0131z, 11 bin dolar da sizin i\u00e7in bir anlam ifade edebilir. Fakat burada da n\u00fcfusumuzu 4 milyon ki\u015fi gibi m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fla \u00f6ng\u00f6rmemiz gerekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye ve artmayan n\u00fcfus&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Sizce bu ikisi yan yana inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 duruyor mu? Sadece gelen m\u00fcltecilerle bile bug\u00fcn bu n\u00fcfus say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7oktan yakalad\u0131k. Var\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tek d\u00fc\u015fmeyen \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fcyle gerisini siz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z 2021 ikinci \u00e7eyrek sonunda 204 milyar dolara, ithalat\u0131m\u0131z da 267 milyar dolara ula\u015f\u0131yor. Yani 63 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k hesap ediliyor. \u00d6ylesine b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mucize yarataca\u011f\u0131z ki, \u00fcretimimiz i\u00e7indeki ithalat pay\u0131 birden dramatik seviyelerde d\u00fc\u015fecek. Elbette bunu yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn, ama 3 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2747949083\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Zaten halen 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 10,8 oran\u0131nda bir i\u015fsizlik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00f6re, mucizevi bir yerlile\u015fme ile artt\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a kendisini ortaya atarak, kurgunun inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kertiyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar olurken de enflasyonu y\u00fczde 6 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz. Oysa sadece bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gibi dolar 2021 seviyesinde ayn\u0131 kalsa da, yani hi\u00e7bir y\u0131pranmaya neden olmasa da enflasyonun iki haneli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ocuklar bile g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l kelam, ad\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fik, kendi ayn\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7erisinde a\u00e7\u0131klanan bu program hi\u00e7bir yan\u0131yla tatminkar de\u011fil. Ne ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir de\u011fi\u015fimin haberini veriyor; ne de y\u00f6netilebilir bir ekonomi ad\u0131na ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bence bu olmam\u0131\u015f. Ger\u00e7eklerle y\u00fczle\u015fmeyen hi\u00e7bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zebilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Yani bir program a\u00e7\u0131klayacaks\u0131n\u0131z, hem hi\u00e7 yanl\u0131\u015f yapmad\u0131k mesaj\u0131 verip, hem de her \u015fey g\u00fczel olacak imaj\u0131 sunacaks\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>O zaman adama sorarlar: Hi\u00e7 yanl\u0131\u015f yapmad\u0131ysan\u0131z, bug\u00fcn neden bunlar\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yoruz? Hatta yar\u0131n nas\u0131l sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z? Ve son soru: Madem her \u015fey yolunda bu ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sebebi ne? Pardon; onun yan\u0131t\u0131 belli: D\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler&#8230; Rahmetli Levent K\u0131rca\u2019y\u0131 anas\u0131m geldi; hem de onun ironik \u00fcslubuyla: \u00c7ok ya\u015fa sen baba?<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomide merakla beklenen program a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir programdan \u00e7ok hedefler \u00fczerine kurgulanm\u0131\u015f bir rakamlar manzumesi demek daha do\u011fru. Dengeleme, de\u011fi\u015fim ve disiplin ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Hazine ve Maliye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-56031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56031\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}