{"id":55970,"date":"2018-09-16T20:00:38","date_gmt":"2018-09-16T17:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55970"},"modified":"2018-09-16T06:39:45","modified_gmt":"2018-09-16T03:39:45","slug":"cetin-unsalan-ekonomide-uclu-makas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-ekonomide-uclu-makas\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Ekonomide \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131na kilitlendi. Elbette dolar ile ilgili neler olaca\u011f\u0131 da bunun i\u00e7erisindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015faretlerinden biriydi. Herkes farkl\u0131 tahminlerle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1590024686\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta Merkez Bankas\u0131 do\u011fru ya da yanl\u0131\u015f, eksik ya da fazla y\u00fczde 6,25\u2019lik bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla hamle yapt\u0131. Kimileri bunun son derece yerinde bir karar oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc, benim de i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fum di\u011ferleri faiz sarmal\u0131na girmi\u015f T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir faizle sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zemeyece\u011fini, yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 talebinin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat neticede kim ne derse desin, faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n sonras\u0131nda dolara etkisine bak\u0131ld\u0131. Hemen karar \u00f6ncesinde Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla 6,55\u2019lere kadar y\u00fckselen dolar \/ TL, akabinde 6,40\u2019lar seviyesindeyken, faiz karar\u0131yla beraber d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Ne var ki bu kadar dramatik oranda bir art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen 6,10 \u2013 6,20 band\u0131nda gidip geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi i\u015fin iddia k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, zaman zaman gev\u015femeler olmas\u0131na, hatta dramatik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6sterme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 bile sorun ortadan kalkm\u0131yor. \u00c7ok a\u00e7\u0131k bir ger\u00e7ek var ki, finans piyasalar\u0131 mutlu olsa da, 5 TL ve \u00fczeri gerek reel sekt\u00f6r, gerekse de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in kald\u0131r\u0131labilir maliyetler de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Herkes g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fu an 20 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan orta vadeli programa \u00e7evirdi. Bunun beklentisi sat\u0131l\u0131yor ya da sat\u0131n al\u0131n\u0131yor. Oysa bug\u00fcne kadarki performanslardan biliyoruz ki, bu beklenti i\u00e7ine girilecek bir ba\u015fl\u0131k de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamalara da bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda yine g\u00fcveni zedeleyen yanlar var. Mesela ekim ay\u0131nda enflasyonun aniden d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen bir Bakan ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yaysak, \u00e7ok da ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fumuz s\u00f6ylenemez.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lere, faizi lobilere ba\u011flayan iktidar\u0131n, zamlar\u0131 da f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lara kilitlemesiyle sorunlar ortadan kalkm\u0131yor. Hatta bug\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz oranlar\u0131yla reel sekt\u00f6r iyice i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz bir hale geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsenize dolar maliyetleri nedeniyle y\u00fczde 40 deval\u00fcasyonla sermayesi erimi\u015f, enflasyon rakamlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda maliyetlerini fiyatlara yans\u0131tamam\u0131\u015f, stoklar\u0131 \u015fi\u015fip, \u00f6demeler dengesi k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k i\u00e7 piyasada git gide hareketin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle y\u00fczle\u015fen bir reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1795544125\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi de y\u00fczde 24 faiz ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yalar. Bu oranlarla y\u00fczde 45 diliminden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya kredi bulabilmeleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahsil edemeyen, ihracatta al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n vade talebiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan reel sekt\u00f6r \u00e7arklar\u0131 nas\u0131l d\u00f6nd\u00fcrecek?<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki k\u0131skaca ilaveten kimsenin konu\u015fmak istemedi\u011fi bir de petrol fiyatlar\u0131 var. \u015eu an 78 dolar seviyesinde gezen Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 80 dolar\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda tost olmay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p, \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fkence aletiyle k\u0131skaca girecek.<\/p>\n<p>Peki t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 \u00f6nemsemeyen ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ne yap\u0131yor? Katma de\u011fer beklerken, en tan\u0131nan kurumlar\u0131ndan birinin k\u0131yafetlerini \u0130talyanlar\u2019a tasarlat\u0131p, en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nceli\u011finin de Kanal \u0130stanbul oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bak\u0131n daha Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e 200 milyar dolarl\u0131k verginin uygulanma talimat\u0131n\u0131 vermesini, artan korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, daralan d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131, git gide azalan ya da maliyetlenen likiditeyi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin artan risk primlerini ve b\u00f6lgemizdeki jeopolitik riskleri saymad\u0131m bile&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3831816545\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Var\u0131n gerisini siz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. Bu foto\u011fraf\u0131n tek \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131, yeni konkordatolar, artan gizli iflaslar, h\u0131zla y\u00fckselme riski bulunan bir i\u015fsizlik ve kap\u0131m\u0131za dayanan stagflasyon riski. Ekonomideki bu \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makas\u0131 g\u00f6rmemek, sorunlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten masaya yat\u0131rmamak, tercihlerinde de eski yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda \u0131srar etmek tek bir anlama geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Verilen mesaj \u015fu: Ne haliniz varsa g\u00f6r\u00fcn&#8230; G\u00f6rmesine g\u00f6relim de, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla mutluluk kelebe\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fcp, ger\u00e7eklere g\u00f6zlerini kapayanlarla, yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015f\u0131 siyasi s\u00f6ylemlerine yediremeyip, bu konudan \u00e7\u0131kamayanlar\u0131 ne yapaca\u011f\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131na kilitlendi. Elbette dolar ile ilgili neler olaca\u011f\u0131 da bunun i\u00e7erisindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015faretlerinden biriydi. Herkes farkl\u0131 tahminlerle&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-55970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55970"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55970\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}