{"id":55954,"date":"2018-09-13T20:24:39","date_gmt":"2018-09-13T17:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55954"},"modified":"2018-09-13T20:24:39","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T17:24:39","slug":"cetin-unsalan-bu-yama-tutar-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-bu-yama-tutar-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Bu yama tutar m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 24\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bu meseleyi bile derbi ma\u00e7\u0131na \u00e7evirmi\u015f olmam\u0131z ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na incelenmesi gereken sosyolojik bir vaka. Yani dolardan m\u0131, faizden mi dayak yiyece\u011fimize karar veremeyip, kendi aram\u0131zda kutupla\u015farak bunu bile tart\u0131\u015fma vesile yapabiliyoruz. Tebrik ediyorum\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-226144230\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f okumad\u0131n\u0131z. Ben bu hamlenin tamamen bir yamadan ibaret oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Zira meseleyi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131rken bile finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131m sergiliyor; ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olacak konular\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131yorsak, yap\u0131lan her \u015fey laf\u00fcg\u00fczaft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sadece rakamlar baz\u0131nda, salt iktisadi gerek\u00e7elerle durum analizi yaparsak, enflasyonun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f bir faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n dolar \/ TL kurunu aleyhimize tetikledi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fini de i\u00e7ine katarak faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, hem de bu oranlarda y\u00fckseltmenin do\u011fru oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin a\u00e7mazlar\u0131n\u0131, dolar ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesindeki \u0130ngiltere seyahatinin ard\u0131ndan ortaya konulan eylemle faiz sarmal\u0131na girdi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6rmeden bu meselenin analizini yapmak eksik kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bazen iktisaden do\u011fru g\u00f6z\u00fckse bile, filmin sonunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek farkl\u0131 kararlar verebilirsiniz. \u00d6ncelikle tekrar alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izeyim, enflasyonun alt\u0131nda bir faizin s\u00fcrd\u00fclebilir hi\u00e7bir yan\u0131 yok.<\/p>\n<p>Mesele Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n belirtti\u011fi gibi, \u2018faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrsen enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u2019 tezinden de \u00e7ok uzak. Zira m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Faiz, tam da kendisinin ele\u015ftirirken s\u00f6yledi\u011fi gibi enflasyonun bir sonucudur. Enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeden de faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcremezsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Lakin bu kadar a\u00e7\u0131ktan teslim bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmek gerekiyor muydu? Bence as\u0131l tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken konu bu. D\u00fcnyada parasal daralma var. G\u00fcvenli liman olarak nitelendirilen ABD faiz artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Herkes paras\u0131n\u0131 ve fabrikas\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ihtiyac\u0131 oran\u0131nda para gelece\u011fini, gelse bile kullan\u0131labilir maliyetlerde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek bir hayalperestlikten ibarettir. \u00d6yleyse daha ak\u0131lc\u0131 bir metot uygulanabilirdi. Maksimum enflasyonun bir puan \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131labilirdi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3514611659\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00f6ylece hem enflasyondan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz verme tezini \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz, hem de faiz sarmal\u0131na girmi\u015fken, yabanc\u0131 finans\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n tuza\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmezsiniz. Elbette bunu tek ba\u015f\u0131na yapman\u0131z\u0131n bir anlam\u0131 yok. Bu tavr\u0131n mutlaka reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc rahatlatacak baz\u0131 politikalarla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 gitmesi gerekirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Israrla alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorum. Enflayonun biraz \u00fczerinde faiz verip, s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 ve te\u015fvikleri reel piyasalardaki vade ve vade farklar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131saltmak \u00fczere kullansayd\u0131n\u0131z, hem enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye fiyatlar bak\u0131m\u0131ndan katk\u0131 sa\u011flar, hem de reel sekt\u00f6rdeki k\u0131r\u0131lan \u00f6demeler zincirini onarabilirdiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz pozisyonda dolar\u0131n bulundu\u011fu seviye, halen reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin de d\u00f6nd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi oranlar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde. \u015eimdi bir de buna faiz maliyeti eklediniz. Bankalar\u0131n bu ko\u015fullarda kredi vermeyece\u011fi ya da veremeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Paran\u0131n stok maliyetinin, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz bile.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7 piyasadaki daralma e\u011filimini, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 pazarlarda d\u00fc\u015fen kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 ve m\u00fc\u015fterinin vade talebini de dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, \u015fu an nefes alm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fcken reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc daha b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz. Hele ki bir de buna y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 eklenirse, yand\u0131 g\u00fcl\u00fcm keten helva.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3542414145\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu nedenle yap\u0131lan bu yama, bir sonraki talebe kadar tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Fakat sorunu ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7\u00f6zmedi\u011finiz, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc yap\u0131land\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z, samimi olarak \u00fcretim ekonomisine ge\u00e7ecek bir metot i\u015flemedi\u011finiz s\u00fcrece bir ka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde yine dolar bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ger\u00e7ek sorunu, problemlerini \u00e7\u00f6zecek y\u00f6ntemlere kafa yormak yerine, g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtaracak yama aramas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu yama tutar m\u0131? K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in evet. Ama sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmez. Tavr\u0131n\u0131z bu oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece de kimse bana d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerden bahsetmesin. Kendi kalesine s\u00fcrekli gol atan\u0131n, rakip oyuncuya k\u0131zma hakk\u0131 yoktur.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 24\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bu meseleyi bile derbi ma\u00e7\u0131na \u00e7evirmi\u015f olmam\u0131z ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na incelenmesi gereken sosyolojik bir vaka. Yani dolardan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-55954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55954\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}