{"id":5589,"date":"2011-09-27T08:44:03","date_gmt":"2011-09-27T05:44:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5589"},"modified":"2011-09-27T08:44:15","modified_gmt":"2011-09-27T05:44:15","slug":"avrupa%e2%80%99nin-cozumu-turkiye%e2%80%99nin-sorunudur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupa%e2%80%99nin-cozumu-turkiye%e2%80%99nin-sorunudur\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Sorunudur"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa\u2019da banka sermayelendirmesi s\u00fcreci ge\u00e7ici tasarruf fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in rekabeti artt\u0131r\u0131r, kaynaklar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in pahal\u0131land\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1796145710\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Avrupa\u2019da bug\u00fcnlerde ciddi bir tedbir almak gerekiyor. \u00d6yle ya da b\u00f6yle al\u0131nacak. Ya Avrupa Birli\u011fi kendisi s\u00fcrece liderlik ederek ortadaki probleme bir sonu\u00e7 bulacak. Ya da birer birer kredi de\u011ferlilik derecesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen bankalar kanal\u0131yla kendili\u011finden bir sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. Her durumda, Avrupa\u2019daki anl\u0131 \u015fanl\u0131 bankalar\u0131n kendilerine bir yerlerden sermaye katk\u0131s\u0131 bulmalar\u0131 gerekecek. Gidi\u015fat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ortada. Avrupa bankalar\u0131 derken yaln\u0131zca Avrupa Birli\u011fi demiyorum, \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130svi\u00e7re filan bu i\u015fin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fil. Peki, Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar sermayelerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye ba\u015flarlarsa bu durum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi nas\u0131l etkiler? Gelin bir bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonomi normal de\u011fil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomileri \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r normal de\u011fil. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r ekonomiler kamu kesimi taraf\u0131ndan de\u011fi\u015fik bi\u00e7imlerde destekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye de buna dahil. Herkes kendi ekonomisinin canl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir \u015feyler yap\u0131yor. Fark nerede? Fark \u015furada: Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde al\u0131nan tedbirler sonu\u00e7 veriyor, baz\u0131lar\u0131nda ise sonu\u00e7 vermiyor. Neden b\u00f6yle oluyor? Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin ekonomilerinde, al\u0131nan tedbirlerin i\u015fe yaramas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen yap\u0131sal problemler bulunuyor. Tedbirlerin i\u015fe yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerlerde, ekonomiler yap\u0131sal hasar ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye b\u00f6yleydi. Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin ekonomilerindeki yap\u0131sal hasar ise herkesi olumsuz etkileyebiliyor. Avrupa\u2019daki yap\u0131sal problem, Amerika dahil, uygar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n toparlanma s\u00fcrecini olumsuz etkiliyor. Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskler, bu bankalar\u0131n iktisadi toparlanma s\u00fcrecini desteklemesini engelliyor. Nas\u0131l engelliyor? Bilan\u00e7osunda sermayesine g\u00f6re zaten \u00e7ok risk bulunan bir banka, yeni risk almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor. O zaman da ekonominin can suyu eksik kal\u0131yor. Ekonomide bir nevi tasarruf fazlas\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu ilk nokta.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim ikinci noktaya. Burada, \u015fimdilik, \u201cO risk o bilan\u00e7oya nas\u0131l girdi\u201d teorik sorusunu b\u0131rakal\u0131m. O sonran\u0131n i\u015fi. \u015eimdi \u2018bilan\u00e7osunda sermayesine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok risk bulunan\u2019 bankan\u0131n fel\u00e7 olmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in ne yapmak gerekir, ona bakal\u0131m. Sermaye bilinen en eski risk kontrol arac\u0131d\u0131r. Bankan\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunda sermayesine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok risk birikmi\u015fse ya da birikecekse bankan\u0131n sermaye taban\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek gerekir. Bankaya sermaye bulunur ki banka bilan\u00e7osundaki riski, o sermaye katk\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7inde eritsin. \u00c7arp\u0131\u015fman\u0131n hasar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsun. Bu da ikinci noktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, banka sermayelendirmesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi nas\u0131l etkiler? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerde bir cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse edebilme imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6reli ve ge\u00e7ici tasarruf fazlas\u0131d\u0131r. Bankalar\u0131n risk i\u015ftahs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, birtak\u0131m kaynaklar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kaymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015eimdi bu kaynaklara banka yeniden sermayelendirmesi s\u00fcrecinde ve sonras\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019da da ihtiya\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r. Bu da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc noktad\u0131r.\u00a0<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Fark nerede?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Gelelim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye. 2008 krizi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hi\u00e7 de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fildi. Mart 2008\u2019de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden biraz daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fc. Temmuz 2011 itibariyle 5.3 milyar dolar olan cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, Mart 2008 itibariyle 4.3 milyar dolard\u0131. Burada b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fark yok. Fark \u015furada: Mart 2008\u2019de bu cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019u k\u0131sa vadeli kaynaklarla finanse ediliyordu. \u015eimdi ise y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli kaynaklarla kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor. Bu nedir? Bu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. 2008\u2019e g\u00f6re, 2011\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye daha fazla k\u0131r\u0131lgand\u0131r. Bu da d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc noktad\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1735745935\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Avrupa\u2019da banka sermayelendirmesi s\u00fcreci, ge\u00e7ici tasarruf fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in rekabeti artt\u0131r\u0131r; kaynaklar\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in, mutlaka pahal\u0131land\u0131r\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu d\u00fczeyde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmesi, bu d\u00fczeyde h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilmesi, kaynak maliyetlerinin bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaz. Bu da be\u015finci noktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin sorunu olabilir. Devam eden kur intibak\u0131 acaba tam da bunun habercisi midir?<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcven SAK<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa\u2019da banka sermayelendirmesi s\u00fcreci ge\u00e7ici tasarruf fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in rekabeti artt\u0131r\u0131r, kaynaklar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in pahal\u0131land\u0131r\u0131r. Avrupa\u2019da bug\u00fcnlerde ciddi bir tedbir almak gerekiyor. \u00d6yle ya da b\u00f6yle&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5589\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}