{"id":5586,"date":"2011-09-27T08:42:18","date_gmt":"2011-09-27T05:42:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5586"},"modified":"2011-09-27T08:42:30","modified_gmt":"2011-09-27T05:42:30","slug":"imf%e2%80%99nin-onerileri-uzerine-bir-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imf%e2%80%99nin-onerileri-uzerine-bir-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF\u2019nin \u00d6nerileri \u00dczerine Bir De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 ikinci plana atma ya da at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi bir izlenim verme l\u00fcks\u00fc yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3421583428\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin IMF\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 politika \u00f6nerilerini yorumlamaya geldi. IMF, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fi ve bu nedenle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmayla kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor. Bu ama\u00e7la ge\u00e7ici b\u00fct\u00e7e gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almadan s\u0131k\u0131 bir b\u00fct\u00e7e yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyor. Bu k\u00f6\u015fede ayn\u0131 \u00f6neri defalarca yer ald\u0131. \u00d6zellikle 2010\u2019da ve 2011\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ko\u015fullar uygunken \u2018basiretli bir t\u00fcccar\u2019 gibi davranmakta yarar vard\u0131. Oysa \u015fu anda ortam \u00e7ok belirsiz ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00e7ok yava\u015f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna girmesi, hatta k\u00fcresel kriz \u015fiddetlenirse 2009\u2019daki gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ko\u015fullar korktu\u011fumuz y\u00f6nde geli\u015firse \u2018g\u00fcne\u015fli g\u00fcnler\u2019 i\u00e7in t\u00fcm\u00fcyle kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m bu \u00f6nerinin hem siyasi yap\u0131labilirli\u011fi hem de \u00f6zellikle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fan\u0131rsa ekonomik anlaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadan kalkar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rezerv \u00f6nerisi yerinde<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na \u201cLiran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek u\u011fruna d\u00f6viz rezervlerini harcama\u201d \u00f6nerisi de \u00e7ok yerinde. Birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ko\u015fullarda d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine set \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n nafile bir \u00e7aba oldu\u011funa dair bir uyar\u0131 yer ald\u0131 bu k\u00f6\u015fede. Nafile bir \u00e7aba \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6viz kurundaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n temel nedeni k\u00fcresel piyasalarda risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n son derece artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihalelerle d\u00f6viz satarak o risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Elbette yurti\u00e7i finansal sistemi d\u00f6viz likiditesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri almal\u0131 (al\u0131yor zaten). Ama bunun \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7memeli.<\/p>\n<p>IMF, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyor. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle kredi arz\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015flatmak ve k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerini cayd\u0131rmak (liran\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesini \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak) ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ve bu ama\u00e7lara ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan ara\u00e7lar\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 son derece g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dahas\u0131, bu uygulamalar\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131 amac\u0131ndan \u00f6d\u00fcn verildi\u011fi izlenimine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6d\u00fcn verildi\u011fini) ima ediyor. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim iki amac\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u015fiddetlenen k\u00fcresel krize kadar ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu ve \u015fimdi para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 bir ortamda bulundu\u011fumuzu bu arada not edeyim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130nand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k zedelenmemeli\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Bu \u00f6nerilere k\u0131smen kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. K\u00fcresel krizden al\u0131nan dersle salt fiyat istikrar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerine, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ve akademisyenlerin yeni bir para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na giri\u015ftikleri bir d\u00f6nemde, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da yeni aray\u0131\u015flarda olmas\u0131 do\u011fal. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinin frenlenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 da kabul edilebilir bir uygulama. Bu nedenle IMF\u2019nin salt fiyat istikrar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi \u00f6nermesine kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak finansal istikrara odaklan\u0131rken fiyat istikrar\u0131 hedefini zedeleyici uygulamalardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekiyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede IMF hakl\u0131. Mesela, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon hedefinin tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 belli oldu\u011funda, bir sonraki y\u0131l\u0131n enflasyon hedefinin rahatl\u0131kla tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirtilerek herhangi bir para politikas\u0131 arac\u0131n\u0131n hedeften sapmay\u0131 telafi etmek \u00fczere devreye sokulmamas\u0131 kabul edilebilir bir uygulama de\u011fil. A\u00e7\u0131k ki hedefin inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zedeleyen bir uygulama bu. \u00d6te yandan, finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken uygulanan ara\u00e7lar\u0131n bir i\u015fe yaramas\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015fka kurumlarla i\u015fbirli\u011fi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011finde, o kurumlar devreye girmeden para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ortal\u0131\u011fa at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n bir anlam\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamas\u0131 gerekiyor Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n. Hat\u0131rlay\u0131n: H\u0131zl\u0131 kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 frenlemek i\u00e7in zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 2010 sonunda ve 2011 ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fckseltmesinin BDDK (se\u00e7imden sonra) devreye girene kadar hi\u00e7bir yarar\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bunun nedenleri bu k\u00f6\u015fede \u00e7ok yer ald\u0131; tekrarlamaya gerek yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-399505898\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 ikinci plana atma ya da at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi bir izlenim verme l\u00fcks\u00fc yok. Para politikas\u0131, finansal istikrara, olmazsa olmaz bu ko\u015fulu hep g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak katk\u0131 vermeli. Yoksa hem finansal istikrardan hem de fiyat istikrar\u0131ndan olmak tehlikesi var.<\/p>\n<p>Fatih \u00d6ZATAY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 ikinci plana atma ya da at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi bir izlenim verme l\u00fcks\u00fc yok. S\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin IMF\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 politika \u00f6nerilerini yorumlamaya geldi. IMF,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5586\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}