{"id":5583,"date":"2011-09-27T08:40:36","date_gmt":"2011-09-27T05:40:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5583"},"modified":"2011-09-27T08:40:49","modified_gmt":"2011-09-27T05:40:49","slug":"altinin-yukselisi-ve-dususu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/altinin-yukselisi-ve-dususu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n\u0131n Y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomiler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde krize girmezse alt\u0131n talebi ve fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3749980848\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Alt\u0131n, 1800 dolar\/ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra beklentiler y\u0131l sonunda 2000 dolar\/ons\u2019u ge\u00e7ece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Ger\u00e7ekten de bu beklentinin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fla alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 bir anda 1900 dolar\/ons\u2019u ge\u00e7ti. Ne var ki burada biraz kald\u0131ktan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131. Sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte ge\u00e7en hafta sonunda 1600 ile 1650 dolar\/ons aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyreder oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na gelene kadar geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde sorunlar devam etse de ABD\u2019nin baz\u0131 \u00f6nlemler alarak toparlanabilece\u011fi kan\u0131s\u0131 yayg\u0131nd\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k faizlerin reel olarak neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131, gayrimenkul de\u011ferlerinin artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 (T\u00fcrkiye ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler hari\u00e7), borsalar\u0131n eski parlak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n \u00e7ekici bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Buna ek olarak euronun rezerv para olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yitirdi\u011fi, dolara g\u00fcvenin de sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda tek yat\u0131r\u0131m se\u00e7ene\u011fi olarak alt\u0131n kal\u0131yordu geriye. Buna bir de baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin rezervlerini d\u00f6vizden alt\u0131na kayd\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamalar\u0131 da eklenince alt\u0131na talep birden alt\u0131na h\u00fccuma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda 1412 dolar d\u00fczeyinde olan alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 2011 Eyl\u00fcl ba\u015flar\u0131nda 1900 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Sekiz ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 % 35 dolay\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>H\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nedenleri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131ktan bir s\u00fcre sonra g\u00f6zler Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED\u2019in izleyece\u011fi politikay\u0131 ve ekonomiyle ilgili \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131ya \u00e7evrildi. Bu s\u0131ralarda alt\u0131n alm\u0131\u015f olanlar yava\u015f yava\u015f k\u00e2r realizasyonuna ba\u015flam\u0131\u015flar ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 yava\u015f bir tempoyla ini\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. FED\u2019in ABD ekonomisiyle ilgili yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser a\u00e7\u0131klama alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde \u00f6nemli bir etki yaratt\u0131. FED, a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda yeni bir resesyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekince beklentiler h\u0131zla bozuldu. Her ne kadar ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahvil de\u011fi\u015fim program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olsa da FED\u2019in gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 insanlar\u0131n yeniden kriz g\u00fcnlerine d\u00f6n\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissetmelerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Euro b\u00f6lgesindeki geli\u015fmeler ABD\u2019den de k\u00f6t\u00fc oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in krizin ikinci bir resesyon dalgas\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklentisi giderek yayg\u0131nl\u0131k kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Beklentileri bozulan tasarruf sahipleri eldeki her \u015feyi sat\u0131p nakde d\u00f6nmeye y\u00f6neldi. Yani herkes olas\u0131 bir yeni kriz dalgas\u0131n\u0131 nakitle kar\u015f\u0131lamay\u0131 tercih eder oldu. Alt\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131\u015ftan sat\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nmesinin temelinde bu beklenti de\u011fi\u015fimi yat\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n talebi y\u00fckselirken artan fiyatlar \u015fimdi alt\u0131n arz\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde neler olur?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kriz beklentisinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 her d\u00f6nemde nakit tutma arzusu da art\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle durumlarda ekonomide resesyona girilmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in yaln\u0131z alt\u0131na de\u011fil b\u00fct\u00fcn mallara olan talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme etkisiyle artan talebe dayanarak y\u00fckselen bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131ndan hammadde fiyatlar\u0131na kadar b\u00fct\u00fcn emtia fiyatlar\u0131 geriliyor. Yeterince b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen bir d\u00fcnyada emtia talebi d\u00fc\u015fer. B\u00f6yle bir ortam, insanlar\u0131 t\u00fcketimden tasarrufa ve harcamamaya itiyor. Ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde olmasa bile benzer bir e\u011filim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte talebin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu otomobil ve konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3361056613\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Alt\u0131n, ayn\u0131 zamanda para i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebildi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00fcn emtialardan farkl\u0131 bir durumda bulunuyor. O nedenle e\u011fer geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomiler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde krize girmezse alt\u0131n talebi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Mahfi E\u011e\u0130LMEZ<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomiler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde krize girmezse alt\u0131n talebi ve fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden y\u00fckselebilir. Alt\u0131n, 1800 dolar\/ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra beklentiler y\u0131l sonunda 2000 dolar\/ons\u2019u ge\u00e7ece\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5583"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5583\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}