{"id":55711,"date":"2018-08-13T11:38:35","date_gmt":"2018-08-13T08:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55711"},"modified":"2018-08-13T11:38:35","modified_gmt":"2018-08-13T08:38:35","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-spekulatif-atak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-spekulatif-atak\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; Spek\u00fclatif Atak"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif atak bir \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n bu paray\u0131 ellerinde tutan yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan h\u0131zla ve y\u00fcksek miktarlardaki sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder. Burada sat\u0131\u015ftan kastetti\u011fim \u015fey yerel paran\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralarla de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi eylemidir. \u00d6zellikle sabit kur rejiminde kurun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 sonucu yerel paran\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesinde spek\u00fclatif atak s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir reaksiyondur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3959874379\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>TL\u2019nin USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kurunun 1 TL = 1 USD olarak sabitlendi\u011fini, \u00fclkede ekonomik durumun parlak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kafas\u0131nda bor\u00e7lar\u0131n geri \u00f6denip \u00f6denemeyece\u011fi konusunda ku\u015fkular do\u011fdu\u011funu ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndaki d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc varsayal\u0131m. Bu i\u015ften para kazanmak isteyenler yani ger\u00e7ek spek\u00fclatif atak yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ise \u00fclkenin bu sabit kuru daha fazla s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fini, deval\u00fcasyon yaparak TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek TL bor\u00e7lan\u0131r ve o bor\u00e7la USD al\u0131rlar. Bir yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n 100 USD getirip 1 TL = 1 USD sabit kuruyla ve y\u00fczde 10 faizle 100 TL bor\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayal\u0131m. Diyelim ki \u00fclke spek\u00fclatif ataklara dayanamay\u0131p, deval\u00fcasyon yapmak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015f ve TL\u2019nin Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kurunu 1.30 TL = 1 USD olarak yeniden belirlemi\u015f olsun. Bu durumda 100 TL bor\u00e7lan\u0131p 100 USD alm\u0131\u015f olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n 100 Dolar\u0131 130 TL edecek demektir. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 faiziyle birlikte 110 TL olan borcunu \u00f6dedi\u011finde elinde 20 TL kalacak demektir. Bunu Dolara \u00e7evirdi\u011finde ise (20 \/ 1,30 =) 15 Dolar edecek, b\u00f6ylece kendi cebinden hi\u00e7 para koymadan 15 Dolar kazanm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bu i\u015flemde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n deval\u00fcasyon yapmak yerine faizi y\u00fckseltme yoluna gitmesidir. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve faizlerin y\u00fczde 10\u2019dan y\u00fczde 15\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. \u00d6rne\u011fimizdeki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 e\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fken faizle 100 TL bor\u00e7 alm\u0131\u015fsa faiz borcu artacak, sabit faizle bor\u00e7 alm\u0131\u015fsa deval\u00fcasyondan bekledi\u011fi kazanc\u0131 elde edememi\u015f, bo\u015f yere 10 TL faiz \u00f6demi\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Dalgal\u0131 kur rejimi uygulayan bir \u00fclkenin paras\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 teorik olarak spek\u00fclatif atak olmaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc her d\u00f6viz talebinde kur de\u011fi\u015fir ve yeni bir denge d\u00fczeyine gelir. Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle sabit kur rejiminde arada bir yap\u0131lan deval\u00fcasyon, dalgal\u0131 kur rejiminde \u201cde\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda herhangi bir otoritenin onay\u0131na gerek kalmaks\u0131z\u0131n s\u00fcrekli ve otomatik olarak olur. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin bozuldu\u011fu veya \u00fclkenin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 borcu geri \u00f6demesinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi veya al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken gerekli \u00f6nlemlerin al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hallerde ya da sava\u015f gibi ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 durumlarda, dalgal\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru rejimi de olsa, yerli paradan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve d\u00f6vize talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Burada yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131 sabit kur rejimindeki durumdan farkl\u0131 olarak para kazanmak de\u011fil \u00fclkeye veya \u00fclke de\u011ferlerine yat\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 paras\u0131n\u0131 kurtarmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2018\/08\/spekulatif-atak.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131 D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif atak bir \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n bu paray\u0131 ellerinde tutan yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan h\u0131zla ve y\u00fcksek miktarlardaki sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-55711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55711\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}