{"id":55634,"date":"2018-08-07T21:35:49","date_gmt":"2018-08-07T18:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55634"},"modified":"2018-08-07T21:35:49","modified_gmt":"2018-08-07T18:35:49","slug":"cetin-unsalan-ekonomik-izah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-ekonomik-izah\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Ekonomik izah"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Dolar \/ TL kurundaki anormal hareket herkesin g\u00fcndeminde&#8230; Anormal vurgusunu biraz a\u00e7mak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ger\u00e7ekleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan meseleyi analiz etti\u011finizde ortada bir anormallik yok. Yani dolar talebi ve dolar k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 masan\u0131n \u00fczerine koydu\u011funuzda dolar\u0131n zaten TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 c\u00fcmle alem biliyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3252080819\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Anormal olan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketlilik&#8230; Dolar\u0131n rahip, \u0130ran krizi, siyasetin hukuk dahil her \u015feye a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rlerle ekstra maliyetlendi\u011fini biliyoruz. Fakat s\u00fcrekli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f trendinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bunun bir realizasyona d\u00f6nme ihtimali de var.<\/p>\n<p>ABD\u2019ye yollanan heyet baz\u0131 tavizler verip gelebilir. E\u011fer yumu\u015fama olursa, kimse tersini anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n. Bu durumda biraz gev\u015feme olursa, y\u00fcksek noktadan birilerinin satmas\u0131na, ard\u0131ndan da d\u00fc\u015fen seviyeden al\u0131m yapmas\u0131na f\u0131rsat verildi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomik olarak teslim bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00e7eken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla bir miktar daha rahatlama yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel. Fakat hi\u00e7 kimse dolar \/ TL kurunun eski seviyelere gelmesini beklemesin. En iyi ihtimalle \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktan\u0131n bir \u00fcst basama\u011f\u0131nda durur ki, o da 4,80 \u2013 4,90 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Anormallik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 zig zag g\u00f6steren tabloda&#8230; Asl\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de en \u00e7ok can\u0131n\u0131 yakan durum bu. Lakin hepsini bir kenara koyarsan\u0131z, gev\u015feme olsa bile bunun bir d\u00fc\u015fme olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve matematiksek olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f trendinin dolarda, enflasyonda ve sarmala iktidar eliyle sokulan faizde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat t\u00fcm bunlar ortadayken, iktidarda tav\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. AKP Genel Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz, son d\u00f6nemde finansal piyasalarda ya\u015fanan dalgalanmalar\u0131n ekonomik temellerle izah edilemeyece\u011fini ve mutlaka duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim art\u0131k gerileyece\u011fi iddias\u0131ndan en az\u0131ndan parti d\u00fczeyinde vazge\u00e7ilmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ama elbette Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 ba\u015f dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018d\u00fc\u015fecek\u2019 iddias\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7meyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Bunun kimlere para kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesap bile edilmeden&#8230; Zaten Yi\u011fit Bulut\u2019un s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f yabanc\u0131 ne satarsa, yerliler taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131narak riskin \u00fcstlenmesini tavsiye etmesi akl\u0131n tutuldu\u011fu ve \u2018sen kimdensin\u2019 sorusunun ak\u0131llara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc nokta.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar bir yana Y\u0131lmaz\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemindeki \u2018ekonomik olarak izah edilemeyecek bir tablonun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sav\u0131\u2019 ger\u00e7ekle kesinlikle ba\u011fda\u015fm\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-767117998\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ve bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n hem a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu, hem k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeleri&#8230; \u00d6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilemeyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve onun tetikledi\u011fi cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131&#8230; \u00c7\u0131lg\u0131n projelerde verilen garantilerin dolar \u00fczerinden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla gelen ekstra ihtiya\u00e7. \u00dcretim yapabilmek i\u00e7in girdi maliyetlerinin dolar temelli olmas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klarla y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler aras\u0131nda, 2017 sonu itibariyle 459 milyar dolarl\u0131k aleyhimize olan tablo&#8230; D\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 olarak nitelendirilen kayna\u011f\u0131n tamamen in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne yat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve 2 milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n stok haline gelen konutun finansman\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00f6demesiyle ilgili ortadaki risk&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 kesiminin m\u00fc\u015fterisinden gelen, \u2018dolar y\u00fckseldi vade yap, fiyat k\u0131r\u2019 talebi&#8230; Turizm gelirlerinin en iyi ihtimalle 2015 senesinin sonunu yakalayabilece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi&#8230; Enerji maliyetlerinin daimi y\u00fckseli\u015fi&#8230; Tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, maliyetli bir ekonomiye sahip olunmas\u0131, s\u00f6ylenenin aksine h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir \u00e7ok nedenle dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fini ekonomik olarak izah etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ama en basitiyle anlatay\u0131m, hem de ekonomik olarak.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde dolar ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var ve ne dolar\u0131m\u0131z bulunuyor ne de maliyetsiz para geliyor. O zaman da dolar y\u00fckseliyor. Faiz kavgas\u0131yla birlikte i\u00e7erdekinin ka\u00e7ma riski de aba alt\u0131ndan sopa olarak g\u00f6sterilince dolar tutulam\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2255368139\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n nedeni de ne d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler, ne kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131, ne de jeopolitik riskler. Onlar olsa olsa risk y\u00fczdesini artt\u0131r\u0131r. Bu tablonun iktisaden izah edilebildi\u011fini herkes biliyor. Kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da ge\u00e7mi\u015f 16 y\u0131lda yap\u0131lanlar ve yap\u0131lmayanlar oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. Ekonomik izah m\u0131 istiyorsunuz? \u00dc\u00e7 kelimeyle \u00f6zetleyeyim. Y\u0131llard\u0131r dillerden d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, kalk\u0131nma \u00f6z\u00fcrl\u00fc \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ekonomi palavras\u0131\u2019&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><u>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar \/ TL kurundaki anormal hareket herkesin g\u00fcndeminde&#8230; Anormal vurgusunu biraz a\u00e7mak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ger\u00e7ekleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan meseleyi analiz etti\u011finizde ortada bir anormallik yok. Yani&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-55634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55634\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}