{"id":556,"date":"2011-05-31T10:36:51","date_gmt":"2011-05-31T07:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=556"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:39:07","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:39:07","slug":"unutmamak-bazen-yararlidir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/unutmamak-bazen-yararlidir\/","title":{"rendered":"Unutmamak Bazen Yararl\u0131d\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yap\u0131lan akademik bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7o\u011fu bankan\u0131n 1998 krizinden ders almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve risk k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fi sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2690453891\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nce s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc birka\u00e7 kez etti\u011fim internet sayfas\u0131nda, yine ilgin\u00e7 bir akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n herkesin anlayaca\u011f\u0131 dille yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00f6zet bulgular\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ad\u0131 k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan ve T\u00fcrk\u00e7eye de \u00e7evrilen bir kitab\u0131n ismine g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor; finansal krizler ile ilgilenenler b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle hat\u0131rlayacaklar: Bu Defa Farkl\u0131.<br \/>\nS\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ise \u015f\u00f6yle bir ba\u015fl\u0131k at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f: \u2018Bu Sefer Ayn\u0131: K\u00fcresel Krizdeki Banka Performans\u0131n\u0131 Anlamak \u0130\u00e7in 1998 Krizindeki Banka Performans\u0131n\u0131 Kullanmak\u2019. 1998 krizinden kastedilen Rusya krizi. 18 A\u011fustos 1998\u2019de, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha \u00f6nce satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 devlet tahvillerinden olu\u015fan y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini yerine getiremeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 belaya sokmu\u015ftu. O \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda biz de vard\u0131k. A\u00e7\u0131klama, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymetlerden \u00f6nemli miktarda tutan ABD\u2019deki \u00f6nemli bir finansal kurumu da \u00e7ok zor duruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. K\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar sars\u0131nt\u0131 ge\u00e7irmi\u015f, risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 son derece azalm\u0131\u015f; baz\u0131 ekonomiler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Almanya ve Fransa\u2019daki bankalar etkilenecek <\/strong><br \/>\nBu arada bir parantez a\u00e7ay\u0131m. Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin merkezindeki \u00fclkelerin, \u00f6zellikle Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemlerinin, \u0130rlanda\u2019da, \u0130spanya\u2019da, Portekiz\u2019de ve Yunanistan\u2019da olan bitenden ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileneceklerinin neden yo\u011funlukla tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki paragrafta belirtilenlerden net bir \u015fekilde ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu sorunlu \u00fclkelerdeki bankalar\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n derde girmesi ve\/veya bu \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvillerinden do\u011fan y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yerine getirememeleri durumunda, bu bankalardan ve devletlerden alacakl\u0131 olan bankalar k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenecek. Bunlar da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Almanya ve Fransa\u2019daki bankalar. Neyse&#8230;<br \/>\nS\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, Temmuz 2007 ile Aral\u0131k 2008 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde banka hisselerinin getirileri ile 1998 krizi s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki getiriler aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiye bak\u0131yor \u00f6ncelikle. Yazarlar, son krizde k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren bankalar\u0131n bu performans\u0131n\u0131 1998 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyorlar. \u00dcstelik eski k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klama g\u00fcc\u00fc, k\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesindeki kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi kadar. Hat\u0131rlatma: K\u00fcresel krize girerken sermayesine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek miktarda kredi a\u00e7an bankalar (y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bankalar) genellikle krizden en \u00e7ok etkilenen bankalar aras\u0131ndayd\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bankalar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu 1998 krizinden ders almad\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nBirtak\u0131m bilimsel s\u0131namalardan sonra, bankalar\u0131n \u2018krizden ders \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p do\u011fru yola geldikleri\u2019 hipotezini, \u2018bankalar\u0131n eski hamam eski tas\u2019 bi\u00e7iminde \u00f6zetleyece\u011fim davran\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imine sahip olduklar\u0131 hipotezi lehine reddediyorlar. K\u0131sacas\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu bankan\u0131n 1998 krizinden ders almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve risk k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fi sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131yorlar. Yani, \u00e7o\u011fu bankan\u0131n y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oran\u0131yla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam etti\u011fi, k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi\u011fi ve ekonomi h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcrken hayat hep \u00f6yle devam edecekmi\u015f gibi kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini tam gaz s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131yorlar.<br \/>\nS\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim bulgulardan farkl\u0131 bulgulara ula\u015fan akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar da \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Olabilir elbette. \u00d6nemli olan o de\u011fil. 1747-1813 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f, Krali\u00e7e Marie-Antoinette\u2019nin \u015fapkac\u0131s\u0131 ve terzisi ve \u2018moda bakan\u0131\u2019 olarak bilinen Marie-Jeanne Rose Bertin \u015f\u00f6yle buyurmu\u015f: \u201cUnutulan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yeni hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yoktur\u201d. \u00d6nemli olan unutmamak.<br \/>\nMerakl\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6zetine \u015fu adresten ula\u015fabilir: \u2018Bankalar krizlerden \u00f6\u011freniyorlar m\u0131?\u2019, R. Fahlenbrach ve arkada\u015flar\u0131, 27 May\u0131s 2011,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.voxeu.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.voxeu.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yap\u0131lan akademik bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7o\u011fu bankan\u0131n 1998 krizinden ders almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve risk k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fi sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc birka\u00e7 kez etti\u011fim internet sayfas\u0131nda, yine&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}