{"id":55521,"date":"2018-08-02T01:07:13","date_gmt":"2018-08-01T22:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55521"},"modified":"2018-08-02T03:18:39","modified_gmt":"2018-08-02T00:18:39","slug":"abd-yaptirimlari-dolar-borsa-ve-ekonomi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/abd-yaptirimlari-dolar-borsa-ve-ekonomi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, Dolar, Borsa ve Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sizlere daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda kapsaml\u0131 bir borsa analizi yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftum. Fakat evin boya badana i\u015fleri araya girdi ve son 5-6 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr bu i\u015fler hayli vaktimi ald\u0131. Yar\u0131n k\u0131sa bir tatile gidiyorum. Uzun zamand\u0131r da borsa analizi sunmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu konudaki en son yaz\u0131mda zannedersem endeksin 93-94 binlere kadar bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yapabilece\u011finden bahsetmi\u015ftim. Bu ak\u015fam uzunca bir yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131m ve tam yay\u0131nlayacakt\u0131m ki; ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri say\u0131n S\u00fcleyman Soylu ile Adalet Bakan\u0131 say\u0131n Abdulhamit G\u00fcl&#8217;\u00fcn varl\u0131klar\u0131na el koydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f. T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klama gecikmedi ve <strong>&#8220;Hi\u00e7 bir amaca hizmet etmeyecek s\u00f6z konusu sald\u0131rgan tutumun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gecikmeksizin ayn\u0131yla verilecektir.&#8221;<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Abd\u00fclhamit G\u00fcl, T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede dikili a\u011fac\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1145929294\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD&#8217;nin Brunson&#8217;u ger\u00e7ekten istedi\u011fini hi\u00e7 zannetmiyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6yle olsayd\u0131, Twitter \u00fczerinden tehditler savurup, yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemezlerdi. Bu i\u015f diplomasi yoluyla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ama\u00e7 \u00fcz\u00fcm yemek de\u011fil, ba\u011fc\u0131y\u0131 d\u00f6vmek.<\/p>\n<p>Kurt suyun ba\u015f\u0131na gelmi\u015f ve su i\u00e7erken yan tarafta suyun uza\u011f\u0131nda duran kuzuya &#8220;Suyu buland\u0131rma, \u015fimdi seni yerim&#8221; demi\u015f. Kuzu da &#8220;Ben sudan en az 5 metre uzaktay\u0131m sen su i\u00e7iyorsun ve ben suyu buland\u0131rm\u0131yorum&#8221; diye cevap vermi\u015f. Kurt kuzuya &#8220;olsun daha \u00f6nceleri annen buland\u0131r\u0131yordu&#8221; demi\u015f ve kuzunun \u00fczerine atlam\u0131\u015f.\u00a0 Ama\u00e7 zaten yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulayarak k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmakt\u0131 ve Brunson&#8217;u b\u0131raksak da b\u0131rakmasak da bunu yapacaklard\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden Brunson&#8217;un b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmez.<\/p>\n<p>Yapt\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, dolar 4.82&#8217;den 5 TL&#8217;ye geldi. Zaten ama\u00e7 buydu. Panik yaratarak ekonomik bir kriz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p, teslim almak. Para Harekat\u0131 kitab\u0131m\u0131 okuduysan\u0131z bilirsiniz, benzer bir \u015feyi \u015eili&#8217;de yapm\u0131\u015flard\u0131 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2017\/11\/16\/para-harekati-yasar-erdinc-ucretsiz-pdf-indir\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Kitab\u0131m\u0131 okumad\u0131ysan\u0131z buradan \u00fccretsiz olarak indirebilirsiniz<\/a>).\u00a0 Larry Savadore diyor ki; &#8220;Yeni olan hi\u00e7bir\u015fey yoktur, sadece tarih okumam\u0131\u015fs\u0131n\u0131zd\u0131r&#8221;.\u00a0Kitab\u0131n ilgili sayfalar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-1.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-55544 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"474\" height=\"741\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-1.png 474w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-1-192x300.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 474px) 100vw, 474px\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-55545 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"471\" height=\"743\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-2.png 471w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-2-190x300.png 190w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-3.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-55546 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"467\" height=\"663\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-3.png 467w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-3-211x300.png 211w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 467px) 100vw, 467px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-4.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-55547 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"470\" height=\"722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-4.png 470w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/sili-4-195x300.png 195w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara \u0130lk Reaksiyon Dolar&#8217;dan Geldi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Herkes &#8220;piyasalar nas\u0131l etkilenir?&#8221; diye soruyor. Piyasalarda zaten dolar kendi reaksiyonunu verdi. 4.82 seviyesinden\u00a05 TL seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yar\u0131n sabah da borsa reaksiyon verir ama ilk a\u015famada borsan\u0131n reaksiyonunun \u00e7ok sert olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar malda. Belki 2-3 bin puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f olur. Sonra toparlanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir endeks g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. \u00d6nemli olan \u015fey ise, endeksin ilk 10-15 dakika i\u00e7inde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dip seviyenin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmemesidir. B\u00f6yle bir durum olur ve ilk 10-15 dakikada g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip seviye a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, panik sat\u0131\u015flar gelir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n geni\u015fleyerek devam edebilece\u011fi riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecektir. Ama \u015funu belirteyim ki, yapt\u0131r\u0131m riski son 3-4 g\u00fcnde de vard\u0131 ve piyasa adeta bunu hi\u00e7 dikkate almad\u0131. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden de borsan\u0131n verece\u011fi reaksiyonun \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00dcstelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar tam anlam\u0131yla kel alaka&#8230; Hi\u00e7 bir ekonomik sonu\u00e7 do\u011furacak bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m de\u011fil. Borsa elbette ki d\u00fc\u015fecek ama\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta sat\u0131\u015f yapman\u0131n da pek anlam\u0131 yok. E\u011fer i\u015flerin daha fazla sarpa saraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve orta vadede i\u00e7in endi\u015feli iseniz ilk 10-15 dakika ge\u00e7tikten sonra endeks bir dip g\u00f6r\u00fcp yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde toplam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f miktar\u0131n\u0131n %30-40&#8217;\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz. \u00d6rne\u011fin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta 2 bin puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmu\u015fsa,\u00a0 bunun %30&#8217;u 600 puan, %40&#8217;\u0131 ise 800 puan yap\u0131yor. Dip seviyeden itibaren 600-800 puan y\u00fckseli\u015f olursa nakde ge\u00e7mek daha anlaml\u0131 olabilir. E\u011fer bu t\u00fcr bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi ilk dip g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonraki 45 dakika ya da bir saat i\u00e7inde gelmiyorsa, borsan\u0131n bekledi\u011fimden daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonomi Y\u00f6netimi&#8217;ne Ne D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eu an s\u0131radan insanlar &#8220;dolar ne olur?&#8221; diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek? Panik yapacak ve belki de ko\u015fup dolar almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklar. \u0130stenilen \u015fey de budur. Ama\u00e7 ekonomide f\u0131rt\u0131na yaratmakt\u0131r. Fakat insan\u0131m\u0131z bu t\u00fcr durumlarda art\u0131k panik yapmamay\u0131 da \u00f6\u011frendiler. E\u011fer ABD istedi\u011fi ekonomik karga\u015fay\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kartamazsa, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 daha da sertle\u015ftirebilir. Maalesef, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin bu t\u00fcr durumlar i\u00e7in acil eylem planlar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu zannetmiyorum.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin dolar 5.05&#8217;i ge\u00e7ip 5.20&#8217;lere giderse ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, nas\u0131l bir aksiyon alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceden planlad\u0131 m\u0131? Yine faiz mi art\u0131rmaya kalkacak? (Yap\u0131lacak en b\u00fcy\u00fck yanl\u0131\u015flardan biri olabilir). S\u0131radan vatanda\u015f\u00a0 panik yapar ve\u00a0 dolara sald\u0131r\u0131rsa\u00a0 ABD&#8217;nin ekme\u011fine ya\u011f s\u00fcrer. Ama ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de \u00f6yle oturup kenardan &#8220;Bu da ge\u00e7er&#8221; \u015fark\u0131s\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde olanlar\u0131 izleyemez. Bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n olas\u0131 boyutunu ve ileride sebep olabilece\u011fi sorunlar\u0131 hemen masaya yat\u0131rmal\u0131, krize maruz kalm\u0131\u015f di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde uygulan\u0131lan ve muazzam ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7 vermi\u015f politikalar\u0131 \u015fimdiden oturup inceleyerek yol haritas\u0131 belirlemelidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, ger\u00e7ek \u015fu ki, GSYH&#8217;m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 kadar d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lusu bir \u00fclkeyiz. Bu borcun b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc\u00a0 \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn olsa da, Asya krizindeki gibi ekonomik bir depremde devletin \u00fczerine kal\u0131r.\u00a0 Herhalde IMF&#8217;ye yeniden gidip para dilenecek de de\u011filiz. Sa\u011fduyulu, sakin\u00a0 ama ak\u0131ll\u0131 olmam\u0131z laz\u0131m&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3949157289\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130yi geceler&#8230; Gelecek hafta g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2 A\u011fustos 2018 &#8211; saat &#8211; 01:04<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sizlere daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda kapsaml\u0131 bir borsa analizi yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftum. Fakat evin boya badana i\u015fleri araya girdi ve son 5-6 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr bu i\u015fler hayli vaktimi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,1497,752,753,1496,715],"class_list":["post-55521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55521\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}