{"id":55451,"date":"2018-07-26T19:09:42","date_gmt":"2018-07-26T16:09:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55451"},"modified":"2018-07-26T19:09:42","modified_gmt":"2018-07-26T16:09:42","slug":"cetin-unsalan-umudun-adi-ovp-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-umudun-adi-ovp-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Umudun ad\u0131 OVP mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde dolar\u0131n 4,80 \u2013 ile 4,90 aras\u0131nda gidip geldi\u011fi bir ortamda, Maliye eski Bakan\u0131 Naci A\u011fbal, ekonominin 2 numaral\u0131 patronu oldu. \u015eimdi de Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) i\u00e7in kollar\u0131 s\u0131vad\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2571452783\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonominin 1 numaras\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemlerine g\u00f6re, kamu harcamalar\u0131nda tasarrufa gidilecek, ekonomide yar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olacak ve bu g\u00fcvenle de her \u015fey d\u00fczelecek. \u015eimdi kriteri buraya koyarsan\u0131z, fazla yorum yapmadan ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nem OVP\u2019lere ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelere bak\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dczerine de fazla bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemeyip, takdiri size b\u0131rak\u0131r\u0131m. Bu arada baz\u0131 oranlar akl\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hedefini bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc tutturamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in defaten revize edilen bir yakla\u015f\u0131mdan bahsediyoruz. Ben, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu kadar ilk hedefleri ortaya koyan resmi verileri dikkate ald\u0131m. \u0130\u015fte tablo \u015fu:<\/p>\n<p><strong>2006 \u2013 2008 OVP (2008 hedefleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleriyle):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 1,1&#8230; \u0130hracat hedefi 106 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 127,5 milyar dolar&#8230; D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 41 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 69,8 milyar dolar&#8230; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi 12,9 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 41,4 milyar dolar. Enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 4, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 10,6&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlik hedefi y\u00fczde 9,6 iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 11&#8230; Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 anketi Dolar \/ TL kuru tahmini 1,38 buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 1,52&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2008 \u2013 2010 OVP (2010 hedefleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleriyle):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5,7, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 8,9&#8230; \u0130hracat hedefi 137,5 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 113,9 milyar dolar&#8230; D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 64,7 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 71,6 milyar dolar&#8230; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi 35,4 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 48,56 milyar dolar. Enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 4, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 6,4&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlik hedefi y\u00fczde 9,5 iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 11,9&#8230; Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 anketi Dolar \/ TL kuru tahmini 1,59 buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 1,54&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2010 \u2013 2012 OVP (2012 hedefleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleriyle):<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3288885939\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 2,2&#8230; \u0130hracat hedefi 130 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 152,5 milyar dolar&#8230; D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 57 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 83,9 milyar dolar&#8230; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi 28 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 49 milyar dolar. Enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 4,8, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 6,16&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlik hedefi y\u00fczde 9 iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 9,2&#8230; Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 anketi Dolar \/ TL kuru tahmini 1,83 buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 1,78&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2012 \u2013 2014 OVP (2014 hedefleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleriyle):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 2,9&#8230; \u0130hracat hedefi 185,1 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 157,6 milyar dolar&#8230; D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 110 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 85,5 milyar dolar&#8230; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi 67,1 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 45,8 milyar dolar. Enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 8,17&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlik hedefi y\u00fczde 9,9 iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 9,9&#8230; Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 anketi Dolar \/ TL kuru tahmini 2,23 buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 2,33&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2014 \u2013 2016 OVP (2016 hedefleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleriyle):<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3412876139\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 2,9&#8230; \u0130hracat hedefi 202 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 142 milyar dolar&#8230; D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 102 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 56 milyar dolar&#8230; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi 55 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 32,6 milyar dolar. Enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 8,53&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlik hedefi y\u00fczde 8,9 iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 10,9&#8230; Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 anketi Dolar \/ TL kuru tahmini 3,19 buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 3,52&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2017 sonu itibariyle OVP (2017 hedefleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleriyle):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 7,4&#8230; \u0130hracat hedefi 203 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 157 milyar dolar&#8230; D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 94 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 76,7 milyar dolar&#8230; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi 50,7 milyar dolar, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 47,1 milyar dolar. Enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 5, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 11,92&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlik hedefi y\u00fczde 9,1 iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 10,9&#8230; Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 anketi Dolar \/ TL kuru tahmini 3,72 buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 3,77&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7erisinde dalgal\u0131 bir deniz gibi gidip gelmeleri, al\u00e7al\u0131p y\u00fckselmeleri, finans s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, dolar kuru nedeniyle TL baz\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kan cari a\u00e7\u0131k maliyeti gibi unsurlar\u0131 da alt alta koydu\u011funuzda yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanacak programa inan\u0131p, inanmamak takdirinize kalm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Benim g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm y\u00fcksek sapmalar, buna g\u00fcvenerek yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan ve kemikleri k\u0131r\u0131lan bir reel sekt\u00f6r, rakamlar\u0131 tutturmak u\u011fruna i\u015fsiz say\u0131lmayan insanlar, insanlara daha az zam yap\u0131lmas\u0131na ve daha \u00e7ok borca batmas\u0131na neden olan, sokakla ilgisi olmayan sahte bir enflasyon.<\/p>\n<p>Sizce bu foto\u011fraf ne anlat\u0131yor? Hadi f\u0131krayla bitirelim:<\/p>\n<p>Sava\u015f gemisi karanl\u0131k ve sisli bir gecede yol al\u0131rken, kaptan k\u00f6\u015fk\u00fcndeki komutan tam kar\u015f\u0131da ve uzakta \u00fczerlerine do\u011fru gelen bir \u0131\u015f\u0131k fark eder. Hemen kar\u015f\u0131 tarafa sinyal g\u00f6nderir ve \u015fu mesaj\u0131 ge\u00e7er: \u201cDerhal rotan\u0131z\u0131 30 derece do\u011fuya \u00e7evirin.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Kar\u015f\u0131dan an\u0131nda yan\u0131t gelir: \u201cSen rotan\u0131 30 derece bat\u0131ya \u00e7evir.\u201d \u015ea\u015f\u0131ran komutan, sinirlenir, mesaj\u0131 yineler: \u201cRotan\u0131 derhal 30 derece do\u011fuya \u00e7evir, emrediyorum.\u201d Kar\u015f\u0131dan: \u201cAs\u0131l sen rotan\u0131 30 derece bat\u0131ya \u00e7evir!.\u201d Komutan \u00f6fkeden k\u00fcplere biner, bu kez mesaj da: \u201cBen 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k kaptan\u0131m, sana son kez emrediyorum, rotan\u0131 30 derece do\u011fuya \u00e7evir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yan\u0131t: \u201cSen 30 senelik kaptansan ben de 20 senelik denizciyim, sen rotan\u0131 30 derece bat\u0131ya \u00e7evir.\u201d Sinir katsay\u0131s\u0131 f\u0131rlayan komutan, m\u00fcrettebata t\u00fcm toplar\u0131 ate\u015fe haz\u0131r hale getirmelerini emreder ve son mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6nderir:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBuras\u0131 bir sava\u015f gemisi, rotan\u0131 30 derece do\u011fuya \u00e7evirmezsen ate\u015fe ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z.\u201d Kar\u015f\u0131dan: \u201cBuras\u0131 da bir deniz feneri ve ben fener bek\u00e7isi Oliver. Rotay\u0131 30 derece bat\u0131ya \u00e7evirmezsen, birazdan kayalara \u00e7arpacaks\u0131n komutan.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde dolar\u0131n 4,80 \u2013 ile 4,90 aras\u0131nda gidip geldi\u011fi bir ortamda, Maliye eski Bakan\u0131 Naci A\u011fbal, ekonominin 2 numaral\u0131 patronu oldu. \u015eimdi de Orta&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-55451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}