{"id":55275,"date":"2018-07-12T01:49:08","date_gmt":"2018-07-11T22:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55275"},"modified":"2018-07-12T01:49:08","modified_gmt":"2018-07-11T22:49:08","slug":"cetin-unsalan-istikrar-oldugu-kesin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-istikrar-oldugu-kesin\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130stikrar oldu\u011fu kesin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u00dclkede son y\u0131llara damga vuran kelimelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda istikrar geliyor. Herkes de far g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f tav\u015fan gibi bak\u0131yor ve \u2018neyin istikrar\u0131\u2019 diye sormuyor. Oysa sadece bir ba\u015fl\u0131ktan bile yola \u00e7\u0131ksan\u0131z istikrarl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini de s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek a\u00e7maza s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2142897638\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunda uygulanan yanl\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131s\u0131 var. Peki bu saatten sonra reel sekt\u00f6r mensuplar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan bir kabine ile bu sorunlar\u0131 a\u015fabilecek miyiz? A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bakanlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli hi\u00e7bir yetkisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sistemde, isteseler bile yapmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ayr\u0131ca mevcut yap\u0131ya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda onlara tan\u0131d\u0131k gelecek tek kavram\u0131n gizli iflas oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye her ay istikrarl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermeye, verirken ithalat birim de\u011ferini ihracattan daha \u00e7ok artt\u0131rmaya, bununla birlikte cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu kronikle\u015ftirmeye, artan dolar kuruyla birlikte de finansman\u0131 \u00e7evrilemez bir hal almaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l anlayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m ise herkes bunlar son derece normalmi\u015f gibi, ihracat rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fup, methiyeler d\u00fczerek sorunu yok say\u0131yor. Problemin yok farz edildi\u011fi bir yerde de s\u0131ra do\u011fal olarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm konu\u015fmaya gelmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Haziran 2018\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan D\u0131\u015f Ticaret M\u00fcste\u015farl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re 12 ayl\u0131k dilimde 86,5 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret endekslerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ise ihracattaki kazanc\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,9 artt\u0131r\u0131rken, ithalattaki maliyetimiz y\u00fczde 7,7 y\u00fckseldi. Yani istikrarl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde makas a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Daha kritik olan\u0131 ise daha az mal al\u0131p, daha \u00e7ok para \u00f6d\u00fcyor olmam\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ayn\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K raporuna g\u00f6re ihracatta miktar\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,4 artt\u0131r\u0131rken, ithalatta miktar\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki bu foto\u011fraf da kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za yine son olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan, May\u0131s 2018 itibariyle 57 milyar 637 milyon dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k ger\u00e7e\u011fini getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 saatlerde dolar \/ TL kuru 4,90 idi. Bu kurdan hesap yaparsak TL baz\u0131nda bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bize maliyeti 282 milyar 421 milyon 300 bin TL&#8230; Yani eski parayla 282 katrilyon TL\u2019den fazla&#8230; Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim bu zarar\u0131 ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131rarak elde ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Diyebilirler ki enerji maliyetleri bunun i\u00e7inde \u00f6nemli bir kalem&#8230; Kabul ama d\u0131\u015f ticaret endeksindeki verilere bakarsak durum orada da parlak de\u011fil. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 hammaddelerde ihracat\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 5,8 y\u00fckselirken, ithalat\u0131m\u0131z da y\u00fczde 9,2 azal\u0131yor. Yani ortada bir gariplik var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1300386940\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hadi kabul edelim enerji maliyetleri bunu tetikliyor. O zaman yeni bir tehlike daha kap\u0131da&#8230; Keskinle\u015fen ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla, dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Yani tost oluyoruz. Lakin bunu da yok sayal\u0131m. Her \u015feyi yok saymak huyumuz ya&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>En b\u00fcy\u00fck tedarik\u00e7imiz Rusya, do\u011falgaz ihra\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131la oranla y\u00fczde 24,2 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyuruyor. Elektri\u011fimizin y\u00fczde 44\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in do\u011falgaz kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz, bunun i\u011fneden ipli\u011fe hayat\u0131m\u0131za nas\u0131l etki edece\u011fini, enflasyonu nas\u0131l tetikleyece\u011fini, onun faize bask\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliyorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu k\u0131tla\u015fan kaynaklar, artan maliyetler, bozulan b\u00fct\u00e7e dengeleri gibi ger\u00e7eklerin g\u00f6lgesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6ncelikli hedefi ne? Ad\u0131na mega denilen \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mlara h\u0131z vermek. Yani topra\u011fa paralar\u0131 g\u00f6m\u00fcm, sonra da i\u015fletmecisine m\u00fc\u015fteri garantili projeler vaat etmek.<\/p>\n<p>Bu foto\u011fraf y\u0131llard\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Daha da ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131 sistematik bir bi\u00e7imde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ferek devam ediyor. Kabul ediyorum ortada bir istikrar var. Ama sorun bakal\u0131m tekrar; neyin istikrar\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-675812073\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dclkede son y\u0131llara damga vuran kelimelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda istikrar geliyor. Herkes de far g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f tav\u015fan gibi bak\u0131yor ve \u2018neyin istikrar\u0131\u2019 diye sormuyor. Oysa sadece bir ba\u015fl\u0131ktan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-55275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55275"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55275\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}