{"id":55087,"date":"2018-06-28T01:02:31","date_gmt":"2018-06-27T22:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=55087"},"modified":"2018-06-28T01:02:31","modified_gmt":"2018-06-27T22:02:31","slug":"cetin-unsalan-ekonomiden-kotu-kokular-geliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-ekonomiden-kotu-kokular-geliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Ekonomiden k\u00f6t\u00fc kokular geliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde dolar \u00fczerinden garip ve ak\u0131l kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bir tart\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcndeme oturdu. Burada ilk \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde spek\u00fclat\u00f6r Soros yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel bir krizin \u00e7ok uzakta olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtip, varl\u0131k balonundan bahsederek fitili ate\u015fleyen bu isimden sonra ad\u0131m ad\u0131m 2008 \u00f6ncesini hat\u0131rlatan ve kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran a\u00e7\u0131klamalar birbirini izledi.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3821439590\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran diyorum ki, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc uzmanlar (!) \u00fczerinden ekonomide bir her \u015feyin yolunda oldu\u011fu, bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Esasen bu olas\u0131 bir vurgunun klasik kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran stratejilerinden biridir.<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim genel foto\u011frafa bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda FED\u2019in faiz artt\u0131rma e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n kemikle\u015fmesi, paran\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak nitelendirilen evine d\u00f6nmesi, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sertle\u015fen \u00fclkeler, \u00f6nlemler, ambargolar, s\u00fcrekli tetikte tutulan jeopolitik riskler bize d\u00fcnyada i\u015flerin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bu yap\u0131l\u0131rken, bir yandan da zarar\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 ya da riski satmaya ortam haz\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131n da finans piyasalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan son derece sistemli bir bi\u00e7imde uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Burada da kritik noktay\u0131, bizim de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fumuz geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler olu\u015fturuyor. Bir ekonomik buhran\u0131n bunlarla tetiklenece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Fakat geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler buradan tetiklenecek bir krizde, kendilerini en az zararla ve riski satarak s\u0131y\u0131rman\u0131n derdine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette meselenin bu kadar karma\u015f\u0131k olmas\u0131nda tek kutuplu d\u00fcnyadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131larak, en az iki kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyaya ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi var. Zira ekonomide tek g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011filseniz, bo\u015faltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z alan\u0131 di\u011fer kutbun doldurmas\u0131 ve faturaya sizi de dahil etmesi riski vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu genel foto\u011fraf\u0131 belirledikten sonra ekonomiden gelen k\u00f6t\u00fc kokular\u0131 hissettiren \u00e7eli\u015fkili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 hat\u0131rlatmakta fayda var. \u00d6rne\u011fin Moody\u2019s bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131yor ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar probleminden bahsediyor. Bunun geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin tahvilleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da, y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 olan geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka a\u00e7\u0131klama daha yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Mobius Capital kurucular\u0131ndan Carls Hardenberg ABD\u2019ye gelecek bir d\u00fczeltmeden bahsediyor ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ama a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda dolar\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bahsederek ak\u0131llar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-17238073\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nitekim bunu hedge fon y\u00f6neticilerinin artan karga\u015fa beklentilerine ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klama izliyor. Varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenen bu karga\u015fa duyurusu, bir bak\u0131ma FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 bir aba alt\u0131ndan sopa olarak da g\u00f6sterilebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Lakin hepsini alt alta koydu\u011fumuzda bir ekonomik buhran\u0131n d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zleniyor. Hepsinin tek tek bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda hakl\u0131l\u0131k noktalar\u0131 olmakla beraber, konsantrasyonun salt geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere de \u2018f\u0131rsat da var\u2019 cinsinden a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla bir parmak bal verilmesi k\u00f6t\u00fc kokunun temelini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7ok dikkatli olmas\u0131, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 do\u011fru okumas\u0131, alt\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve bu s\u00fcreci y\u00f6netmesi gerekir. Fakat Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in s\u00f6ylemlerinden anl\u0131yoruz ki, \u2018biz kendimize g\u00fcveniyoruz\u2019 diyerek korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011fa mesafeli davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Muhtemelen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te yeni ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin olu\u015fas\u0131yla birlikte yap\u0131sal reform meselesi daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcndeme gelecek. Ama bu s\u00f6ylenen yap\u0131sal reformlarla, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekten ihtiyac\u0131 olan yap\u0131sal reformlar ayn\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3337228491\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi \u015eim\u015fek ile devam ederse, ki son \u0130ngiltere ziyareti \u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n izlenimini veriyor, IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 dayatmal\u0131 yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 hayat\u0131m\u0131zda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin daha d\u0131\u015f etkilere a\u00e7\u0131k hale gelmesine ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6ylemden \u00f6teye gitmeyen bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, k\u00f6t\u00fc kokular\u0131n geldi\u011fi ve ikinci dip olarak nitelendirilen d\u00fcnya krizinin \u00f6ncesinde bizim en b\u00fcy\u00fck avantaj\u0131m\u0131z olacakt\u0131r. Bence T\u00fcrkiye bir an \u00f6nce kendi ger\u00e7eklerine d\u00f6nmeli, envanterini yapmal\u0131, a\u00e7mazlar\u0131n\u0131 ve f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyerek yeni bir yol haritas\u0131 belirlemelidir.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi takdirde bu gidi\u015fat bizi IMF\u2019ye, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da daha b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlara gebe b\u0131rak\u0131yor. D\u00fcn akl\u0131m\u0131z neredeydi sorusunu sormak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ge\u00e7. Ekonomi, bizzat bu iktidar taraf\u0131ndan tarumar edildi ve korumas\u0131z hale getirildi.<\/p>\n<p>Hi\u00e7 olmazsa bundan sonra do\u011fru bir stratejiyle elde kalan\u0131 koruyal\u0131m. Aksi takdirde faturam\u0131z daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde dolar \u00fczerinden garip ve ak\u0131l kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bir tart\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcndeme oturdu. Burada ilk \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde spek\u00fclat\u00f6r Soros yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel bir krizin \u00e7ok uzakta&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-55087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}