{"id":5485,"date":"2011-09-23T09:21:35","date_gmt":"2011-09-23T06:21:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5485"},"modified":"2011-09-23T09:21:46","modified_gmt":"2011-09-23T06:21:46","slug":"avrupa-kuculerek-normallesecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupa-kuculerek-normallesecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek Normalle\u015fecek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n tarihsel s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde kendi kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n elverdi\u011finin \u00f6tesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcy\u00fcp semirdi\u011fini, bug\u00fcn itibariyle de bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. K\u00fcresel krizle birlikte iyice daralan kaynak hacminin bir \u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinde bu tarihsel zafiyeti daha da vurgulu hale getirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3486335571\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu \u00fclkelerde ki g\u00fcncel sorununun derinliklerinde b\u00f6yle bir zafiyetin yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu \u00fclkeler al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olduklar\u0131 ya\u015fam d\u00fczeyini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in ek kaynak ihtiyac\u0131 duyuyorlar. Ek kaynak ihtiyac\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmak demek. Oysa bu \u00fclkelerin ana sorunu\u00a0 zaten fazlas\u0131yla bor\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015f ve bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme kabiliyetini kaybetmi\u015f olmalar\u0131. Mevcut ya\u015fama standard\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ek kaynak gerekiyor ama\u00a0 bu \u00fclkelerin o kayna\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanabilme imkan\u0131 yok. Bu bir ikilem. Aylard\u0131r Avrupa sahnesinde seyretti\u011fimiz sorunun \u00f6z\u00fcnde bu ikilem var.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa meselesini b\u00f6yle tan\u0131mlay\u0131nca nas\u0131l bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm gerekti\u011fi de daha kolay tarif edilebiliyor. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 se\u00e7ene\u011fi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm se\u00e7eneklerinden birisi bug\u00fcn uygulanan ve \u00e7o\u011funlukla konjonkt\u00fcr politikas\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00f6nlemlerle yol almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakt\u0131r. \u0130kinci se\u00e7enek g\u00f6rece daha fakir olup aktarma kaynaklarla zengin gibi ya\u015famaya al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f \u00fclkelere gerek duyduklar\u0131 ek kayna\u011f\u0131 sorun yaratmadan temin edecek bir mekanizma kurmakt\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc se\u00e7enek ise bu \u00fclkelerin zengin \u00fclke taklidi yaparak ya\u015famaktan vazge\u00e7meye raz\u0131 olup,\u00a0 kendi kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi bir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fe gerilemeleridir.<\/p>\n<p>Birinci se\u00e7ene\u011fin sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye yetece\u011fi kan\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011filim. Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f iktisat politikalar\u0131 yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretti\u011fi sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmez ama bir noktaya kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilme imkan\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bu noktaya ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra ekonomi yine gerileme, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme se\u00e7ene\u011fi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn Avrupas\u0131nda hangi politika setinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi de \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fildir.\u00a0 Bir a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sorunlu Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin durgunlu\u011fun pen\u00e7esinden kurtulamad\u0131klar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcy\u00fcp kaynak yaratamad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in bor\u00e7 sorununu a\u015famad\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu bak\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zkonusu \u00fclkelerde gev\u015fek ve geni\u015flemeci politikalar uuygulanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret eder. Bu t\u00fcr politikalar\u0131n sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeyece\u011fi,\u00a0 kaynak a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp sorunu daha vahim boyutlara ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda ikinci bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu da s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buna g\u00f6re\u00a0 bor\u00e7 sorununu a\u015fmak i\u00e7in daralt\u0131c\u0131 politikalar uygulan\u0131r, \u00fcretilen ek kaynakla\u00a0 vadesi gelen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6denmesi sa\u011flan\u0131r ve b\u00f6ylece temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fmeden yol al\u0131n\u0131r.\u00a0 Bu se\u00e7enek de \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretemeden t\u0131kanma riski ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fmeden bor\u00e7 \u00f6demek i\u00e7in politikalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak ekonomiyi yava\u015flaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ola\u011fan kaynak yaratma kapasites\u0131ni de geriletir. Sonu\u00e7ta yine ba\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fcl\u00fcr, bor\u00e7 sorunu ile u\u011fra\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2163363306\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n sorununu a\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc se\u00e7ene\u011fin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dikkat ederseniz ilk iki se\u00e7enekte problem ge\u00e7ici bir dengesizlik olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131yor ve bunun talep politikalar\u0131 ile \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Oysa \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc se\u00e7enek sorunun konjonkt\u00fcrden de\u011fil yap\u0131dan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ediyor ve yap\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek, ekonomiyi daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fe ta\u015f\u0131yacak bir tamirat politikas\u0131 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Uygulaman\u0131n\u00a0 \u015f\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130lk ad\u0131mda vadesi gelen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6demesini yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131narak yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131l\u0131r. Yani default durumu yarat\u0131l\u0131r. \u0130kinci ad\u0131mda bor\u00e7lar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n silinmesi sa\u011flan\u0131r. Bu ad\u0131m\u0131n ola\u011fan bedeli bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 piyasalardan bor\u00e7lanma imkan\u0131n\u0131n kaybolmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ekonomiyi kendi kaynaklar\u0131 ile yol almaya zorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc se\u00e7ene\u011fin \u00f6teki iki se\u00e7enekten fark\u0131\u00a0 bor\u00e7 silinmesi yoluyla ekonominin borcunu kendi kaynaklar\u0131 ile \u00f6deyecek hale getirilmesidir. Bu s\u00fcrecin ahlaki bir y\u00f6n\u00fc oldu\u011fu\u00a0 s\u00f6ylenir. Bor\u00e7lanma iki tarafl\u0131 bir akittir. Bor\u00e7 veren alan\u0131n bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme kapasitesini do\u011fru hesaplayarak aktin ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek durumundad\u0131r. Hesap yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131l\u0131r ve sonu\u00e7ta bor\u00e7 \u00f6demede s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa,\u00a0 taraflar bunun y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc kendi aralar\u0131nda payla\u015fmak durumundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan bor\u00e7 silen \u00fclke hacim olarak da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn Avrupas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Avrupa k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek normal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcne (size) gelecek, d\u00fcnya skalas\u0131nda bir ka\u00e7 ad\u0131m geri gitmeye\u00a0 raz\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm budur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2378775277\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n tarihsel s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde kendi kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n elverdi\u011finin \u00f6tesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcy\u00fcp semirdi\u011fini, bug\u00fcn itibariyle de bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. K\u00fcresel krizle birlikte iyice daralan kaynak hacminin bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5485\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}