{"id":548,"date":"2011-05-31T10:32:39","date_gmt":"2011-05-31T07:32:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=548"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:39:27","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:39:27","slug":"kredi-talebi-neden-yuksek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kredi-talebi-neden-yuksek\/","title":{"rendered":"Kredi Talebi Neden Y\u00fcksek?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde ciddi bir makro dengesizlik olu\u015ftu. Her ay yeni rekorlar k\u0131ran d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta somutla\u015f\u0131yor. Sorular biliniyor. Dengesizli\u011fi kim, ne zaman ve nas\u0131l d\u00fczeltecek? \u0130ktisat politikas\u0131 neler yapabilir? Mekanizmalar\u0131 anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015fleyi\u015fine bakt\u0131k. Bir: \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 gelirden\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>h\u0131zl\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/a> art\u0131yor. \u0130ki: Bankalar \u00f6zel kesimi fonluyor. \u00dc\u00e7: K\u00fcresel sermaye bankalar\u0131 fonluyor. Nihai belirleyicinin ilki oldu\u011funu \u00f6zellikle vurgulad\u0131k. Bug\u00fcn \u00f6zel harcamalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcte\u00e7 alt\u0131na al\u0131yorum. Sorulardan birine yap\u0131sal diyebiliriz. T\u00fcrkiye insan\u0131n\u0131n, ister t\u00fcketici ister \u00fcretici, bor\u00e7lanmaktan korkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Nesnel ve \u00f6znel nedenleri \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-519235878\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011feri konjonkt\u00fcrle ilgilidir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>yaz<\/strong><\/span><\/a> aylar\u0131na geri d\u00f6nelim. B\u00fct\u00fcn tahminler sonbahardan itibaren \u00f6zel harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yava\u015flama varsay\u0131yordu. Halbuki tam tersine, anlaml\u0131 bir h\u0131zlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ne oldu?<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cAnimal spirits\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Konjonkt\u00fcr analizini toplumsal zihniyet ve psikoloji ile zenginle\u015ftiren Keynes\u2019tir. \u201cHayvani ruh\u201d do\u011fru ama \u00e7irkin bir terc\u00fcme olur. G\u00f6z\u00fcpek, risk alan, m\u00fccadele azmi\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>y\u00fcksek<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, hatta bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sald\u0131rgan davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bence bizim d\u00fcnyam\u0131za \u201casabiyet\u201d s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc uyuyor. \u00d6zdeyi\u015flere bile yans\u0131yor. Akl\u0131ma\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>hemen<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u201cbor\u00e7 yi\u011fidin kam\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r\u201d geliyor. Benzer i\u00e7erikte ba\u015fkalar\u0131 da var. Frenk\u00e7e ile Fars\u00e7a kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u201criskperver\u201d diyebiliriz.<br \/>\nElimde somut ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yok. Ama \u00e7evremizde \u201casabiyeti\u201d kolayca g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Demografik, tarihi vs. bir dizi etkene ba\u011flayabiliriz.\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u2019nin dinamizmine ciddi katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette, bor\u00e7lanma cesaretini destekleyen nesnel ko\u015fullar da var. En \u00f6nemlisi, makro d\u00fczeyde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7 oranlar\u0131d\u0131r. Kredileri milli gelire b\u00f6lerek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyoruz. Hem t\u00fcketici hem firmalar i\u00e7in muadil ekonomilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Nedenleri biliniyor. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131la kadar mali kaynaklar ancak kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na yetiyordu. \u00dcstelik reel faiz y\u00fcksek ve kredi vadesi k\u0131sayd\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00f6zel kesimin bor\u00e7 kullanma olanaklar\u0131 \u00e7ok k\u0131s\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Konjonkt\u00fcr ve siyaset<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki analiz bize kredi talebinin daha uzun s\u00fcre canl\u0131 seyredebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ancak, yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fim geli\u015fmeyi, yani 2010 sonbahar\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da s\u00fcren ani art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131yor.<br \/>\nGrafikte takvim-mevsim etkisi temizlenmi\u015f \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim ve \u00f6zel makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor. Kriz \u00f6ncesini (2008\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi) 100 ald\u0131m. 2010\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ger\u00e7ek bir yat\u0131r\u0131m patlamas\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBelli ki son \u00e7eyrekte (ekim-aral\u0131k d\u00f6nemi) vatanda\u015fa yeni bir cesaret gelmi\u015f. Hem t\u00fcketim hem yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f. Kredilerden de izliyoruz. O tarihte ne oldu? Bu cesareti nereden buldu? Cevap siyasette gizlidir. 12 Eyl\u00fcl referandumu se\u00e7im bilmecesini de \u00e7\u00f6zd\u00fc. AKP\u2019nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir d\u00f6nem daha iktidarda kalaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Siyasi istikrar ufkunun be\u015f y\u0131l uzamas\u0131 gelecek risklerini azaltt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece \u201casabiyet\u201d a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Olay budur.<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fotograf.gazetevatan.com\/\/newpics\/news\/310520110438071455380_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"right\" \/><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2938874818\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde ciddi bir makro dengesizlik olu\u015ftu. Her ay yeni rekorlar k\u0131ran d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta somutla\u015f\u0131yor. Sorular biliniyor. Dengesizli\u011fi kim, ne zaman ve nas\u0131l d\u00fczeltecek? \u0130ktisat&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}