{"id":5474,"date":"2011-09-23T09:15:40","date_gmt":"2011-09-23T06:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5474"},"modified":"2011-09-23T09:15:53","modified_gmt":"2011-09-23T06:15:53","slug":"dolar-2-lirayi-gorecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolar-2-lirayi-gorecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar 2 Liray\u0131 G\u00f6recek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahvil takas\u0131 karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda piyasalar kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Dolar d\u00fcn tarihi zirvesi olan 1.8450 TL\u2019ye\u00a0<span><strong>kadar<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, \u0130MKB sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Peki dolar 2 TL\u2019yi g\u00f6recek mi? Bence birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde 2 TL\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali az.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3021816203\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u201cDolar ne olur?\u201d sorusu k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00f6\u015fesinden paraya, finansa bula\u015fm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrk insan\u0131n\u0131n akl\u0131ndaki gelen ilk soru olsa gerek. Nas\u0131l olmas\u0131n ki? Kur konusunda ya\u015fanan travma o kadar \u00e7ok ki bu sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 almadan biz T\u00fcrkler rahat edemiyoruz. Rahmi Ko\u00e7\u2019un Aygaz\u2019\u0131n 50. kurulu\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00f6yledi\u011fi\u00a0<span><strong>gibi<\/strong><\/span>: \u201cDolar indi uykum ka\u00e7t\u0131, dolar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 uykum ka\u00e7t\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>Son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0iki g\u00fcnde dolar\/TL kuru 1.80\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca gerilim daha da artt\u0131. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki \u201cKur (herkesin kast\u0131 dolar\/TL kuru) 2 olur mu?\u201d sorusu s\u0131k\u00e7a sorulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Cevaba ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce buraya nas\u0131l gelindi\u011fine de bakmak gerek. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ekonomiyi yava\u015flatmak (bakmay\u0131n siz son aylardaki geni\u015fletme s\u00f6ylemine, o g\u00fcnlerde ama\u00e7 so\u011futmakt\u0131) i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, bankalar\u0131n zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kredilerde y\u00fczde 25\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131r gibi, piyasalar\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler neticesinde yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar piyasalardan yava\u015f yava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir anlamda MB eliyle yarat\u0131lan \u201ckontroll\u00fc gerginlik\u201d startejisi ile beraber 1.45\u2019lerde olan kurlar 1.60\u2019lara y\u00fckseldi. Hemen herkes menundu. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in\u00a0<span><strong>iyi<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0dendi, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar memnundu. Ancak piyasalardaki gerginlik devam edince nisan ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda 1.50\u2019lere kadar gerileyen kurlar yeniden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve bug\u00fcnlere gelindi.<\/p>\n<p>1.80\u2019lerin \u00fczerini\u00a0<span><strong>ilk<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0kez g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra MB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 16 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ekonomistlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da bir soru \u00fczerine \u201cDolar\u0131n, TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferinin olmas\u0131 gereken seviyenin y\u00fczde 5-10 \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu\u201d s\u00f6ylemi bile kurlardaki gerilimi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine azaltsada tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rmaya yetmedi!<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z kurlar\u0131ndaki hareket tek ba\u015f\u0131na bize has de\u011fil. Son g\u00fcnlerde real, rand, zloti ve hatta wonda da benzer hareketler ya\u015fand\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n temelinde euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.4550\u2019den 1.3385\u2019e kadar de\u011fer kazanan (Fed\u2019in bonolardaki k\u0131sa\/uzun vade de\u011fi\u015fim karar\u0131yla h\u0131zlanan) dolar\u0131n etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin kurlar\u0131 son iki-\u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselirken, bizim y\u00fckseli\u015fimiz zamana yay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde piyasalar\u0131 yoran bir ba\u015fka etken de MB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerindeki kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran politikalar\u0131yd\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar en fazla 100 milyon dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131m ihalesi a\u00e7an MB, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bir anda 350 milyon dolarl\u0131k bir ihale a\u00e7t\u0131. Bota\u015f\u2019\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilen bu rakama, 850 milyon dolarl\u0131k teklif geldi. Bu denli y\u00fcksek talep hayra alamet de\u011fildi! \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ise MB yine s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131 ve o g\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015f ihalesi a\u00e7mad\u0131! D\u00fcnki ihale rakam\u0131 da 70 milyon dolarla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu ihale \u201crejimi\u201d piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaktan ba\u015fka bir i\u015fe yaramad\u0131. Paritenin de etkisiyle y\u00fckselen kurlar heyecan\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131nca MB\u2019den d\u00f6viz alamayanlar d\u00f6n\u00fcp piyasadan ald\u0131lar. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca da kur tarihi rekorunu k\u0131rarak 1.8470\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi!<\/p>\n<p>Peki dolar 2 TL\u2019ye gider mi? Enflasyon oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece elbet bir g\u00fcn bu seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Ama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ayda ula\u015f\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z diye sorarsan\u0131z, bence bu ihtimal d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Teknik olarak 1.8670 ya da 1.8780 hadi diyelim, 1.90 seviyesine kadar bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olabilir. Ancak hem bu seviyelerde, hem de bu seviyelere \u00e7\u0131k\u0131l\u0131rken yeni sat\u0131c\u0131lar piyasaya gelecektir. D\u00fcn 4.33\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kan (1 dolar + 1 eurodan olu\u015fan) sepetin 4.38\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da bu sav\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4039673153\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Normal \u015fartlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda; bu seviyenin yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde telafuz edilmesi daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k. Ancak Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de ya da kom\u015fular\u0131m\u0131zdan herhangi biriyle s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma veya Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n ifl\u00e2s\u0131n\u0131 bir ba\u015fka AB \u00fclkesinin izlemesi resmi h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>En fazla kay\u0131p Rus Borsas\u0131\u2019nda<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>De\u011fi\u015fim (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Rusya -9,82<br \/>\nPolonya -6,05<br \/>\nMacaristan -5,97<br \/>\nFransa -5,25<br \/>\nAlmanya -4,96<br \/>\nHong Kong -4,85<br \/>\n\u0130MKB -4,68<br \/>\nArjantin -4,66<br \/>\n\u0130ngiltere -4,64<br \/>\nBrezilya -4,28<br \/>\nMeksika -4,21<br \/>\nABD (DJ) -3,88<br \/>\nG. Afrika -3,16<br \/>\nYunanistan -3,03<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3486167073\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u0130\u015fte piyasalar\u0131 alt\u00fcst eden 5 neden?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>* D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin lokomotiflerinden \u00c7in \u2019de imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki daralman\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda da devam etmesi<\/p>\n<p>* Fed\u2019in bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra zor durumdaki ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin artan riskler konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>* Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde sanayi sipari\u015flerinin azalmas\u0131, Yunanistan endi\u015felerinin devam etmesi, bor\u00e7 krizine ili\u015fkin somut bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn hala bulunmamas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>* Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u2019s\u2019in ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck 3 bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo) kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi<\/p>\n<p>* ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahvil takas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n istedi\u011fi likidite deste\u011fini sa\u011flamamas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahvil takas\u0131 karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda piyasalar kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Dolar d\u00fcn tarihi zirvesi olan 1.8450 TL\u2019ye\u00a0kadar\u00a0\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, \u0130MKB sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Peki dolar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5474\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}