{"id":54676,"date":"2018-05-24T10:39:10","date_gmt":"2018-05-24T07:39:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=54676"},"modified":"2018-05-24T13:09:31","modified_gmt":"2018-05-24T10:09:31","slug":"dolarda-son-durum-ve-borsa-yatirimcisina-mesajlar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolarda-son-durum-ve-borsa-yatirimcisina-mesajlar\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolarda Son Durum ve Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131na Mesajlar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u00d6nceki gece\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2018\/05\/23\/dolardaki-yukselis-mbnin-ve-sizlerin-sinir-uclari\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Dolar\u2019da 4.80 Seviyesi G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, MB\u2019n\u0131n ve Sizlerin Sinir U\u00e7lar\u0131<\/a>\u00a0ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131mda dolar bir anda 4.65 seviyelerinden 4.80 seviyelerine f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Makul a\u00e7\u0131klama \u015f\u00f6yle; Amerikan piyasalar\u0131 kapan\u0131p, Asya cephesinde i\u015flemler ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda &#8220;TL \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc buradan d\u00f6ner diye 4.50&#8217;lerden pozisyon a\u00e7an Asya&#8217;l\u0131lar stop-loss (zarar\u0131 kes) yapmak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015flar ve dolar f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f. Sabahleyin de Avrupa a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu sefer Avrupal\u0131lar geceki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fcnce\u00a0 onlar da zarar kesmeye kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar 4.90&#8217;lara dayanm\u0131\u015f ve herkesin g\u00f6z\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;na \u00e7evrilmi\u015fti. D\u00fcn geceki yaz\u0131mda bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in MB&#8217;n\u0131n i\u015finin zor oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim. Asl\u0131nda dolar\u0131 stabilize edecek (en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede art\u0131\u015f\u0131 durduracak) ila\u00e7 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yd\u0131 ve sonunda bu yap\u0131ld\u0131. MB bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 %13.50&#8217;den %16.50&#8217;ye y\u00fckseltti. Dolar 4.85 seviyelerinden sert bir \u015fekilde 4.65&#8217;lere d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc sonra da 4.54 seviyesine kadar indi. Bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m s\u0131rada 4.56&#8217;dan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-280162808\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eu an \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli sorular \u015funlard\u0131r; &#8220;Bu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeterli mi?&#8221;, &#8220;Dolar yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7er mi?&#8221; \u015eu an i\u00e7in MB&#8217;n\u0131n bu ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeterli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ama dolarda yeni yukar\u0131 hareketler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, fakat en az\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 hafta i\u00e7inde 4.90 seviyesini art\u0131k ge\u00e7emeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. 4.47 ile 4.71 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131 beklenebilir. \u015eimdilik dolar ile ilgili olarak s\u00f6yleyeceklerim bunlard\u0131r. Dilerim \u00f6nceki geceki yaz\u0131m\u0131 okuyanlar d\u00fcn sabah dolara sald\u0131rmam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda haftal\u0131k bazda, dolar %8&#8242; prim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gelmi\u015fti ve bu sefer biraz gecikmeyle geldi. &#8220;Sinir u\u00e7lar\u0131&#8221; olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m yere \u00e7ok yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fumuz i\u00e7in, \u00f6nceki geceki yaz\u0131mda dolar\u0131n pe\u015finden gidecek olanlar\u0131\u00a0 uyarmak istemi\u015ftim. Nitekim MB&#8217;n\u0131n toplant\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 haberi 15 kuru\u015fluk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratt\u0131ktan sonra, 300 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m haberi dolar 4.55&#8217;lere \u00e7ekti. G\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek fiyat 4.92 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re 38 kuru\u015fluk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Y\u00fcksek seviyelerden (4.80&#8217;in \u00fczerinden) alanlar, e\u011fer stop (zarar\u0131 kes) seviyesi belirlememi\u015flerse,\u00a0 \u015fimdi o seviyelere gelse de satsam diyorlar. Ama 1 haftal\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde yeni ve \u00e7ok beklenmedik olumsuz bir geli\u015fme olmazsa, say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmazsa, haz\u0131r FED tutanaklar\u0131 da &#8220;faiz art\u0131rmakta acele etmeyece\u011fiz&#8221; mesaj\u0131 vermi\u015fken o seviyeleri k\u0131sa vadede g\u00f6rme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p><strong>Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ne Yapmal\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dolar rekorlar k\u0131rarken, dikkat \u00e7eken en \u00f6nemli unsur, borsan\u0131n en az\u0131ndan endeks baz\u0131nda buna \u00e7ok fazla reaksiyon vermemesi ve 100 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmemesiydi. Ger\u00e7i dolar s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in, BIST-100 endeksi yerinde saysa bile, dolar baz\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yap\u0131yordu. Endeksin TL ve Dolar grafiklerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da alt alta veriyorum.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-54677 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/BIST-100-24-mayis-2018-G.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"564\" height=\"385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/BIST-100-24-mayis-2018-G.png 564w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/BIST-100-24-mayis-2018-G-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 564px) 100vw, 564px\" \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-54678 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/BIST-100-24-mayis-2018-G-DOLAR.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"564\" height=\"385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/BIST-100-24-mayis-2018-G-DOLAR.png 564w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/BIST-100-24-mayis-2018-G-DOLAR-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 564px) 100vw, 564px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00dcstteki grafik TL baz\u0131nda, alttaki grafik de Dolar baz\u0131nda endeksi g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcn i\u015flem miktar\u0131 1 milyar lotu a\u015ft\u0131. Endeks TL baz\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapsa da, dolar baz\u0131nda (dolardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle) art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. TL grafi\u011fe bakarsan\u0131z, 97.500 seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra, dolar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 strese ra\u011fmen 100 binin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Dolar baz\u0131nda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise 2.20 dolar civar\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Borsa b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla bug\u00fcn d\u00fcne g\u00f6re en az\u0131ndan 1000-2000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131labilir. Her ne kadar geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke borsalar\u0131nda genel e\u011filim a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da, biz zaten \u00f6zellikle dolar baz\u0131nda \u00e7ok fazla negatif ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k ve yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi ba\u015flayacak diyemesek de, borsada ciddi bir tepkinin arefesinde oldu\u011fumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar biraz sab\u0131rl\u0131 olmal\u0131lar. Bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck borsa hareketine bak\u0131p, radikal karar vermemeliler. Evet, belki bu sabah borsa y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131lacak ama, sonras\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olabilece\u011finin senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131n\u0131z m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n durumuna ve senaryolara beraber bakal\u0131m. Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle maldad\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kahneman&#8217;\u0131n Prospect Teorisini sizlere uygularsak, zarara ge\u00e7ti\u011finiz andan itibaren zaten satmam\u0131\u015fs\u0131n\u0131zd\u0131r ve &#8220;y\u00fckseli\u015f olsa&#8221; diye dua ediyorsunuzdur. E\u011fer durum buysa, elinizdeki hisse, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z fiyata gelinceye kadar beklemek isteyeceksinizdir. Ama ben yine de beyninizin i\u00e7indeki n\u00f6ronlar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7ireyim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4220697282\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Senaryo-1:<\/strong> Elinizde hisseler var ve borsa 1500 puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Ama sizin hisse bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc gitmiyor, hatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor&#8230; Ne yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Nas\u0131l davranacaks\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Senaryo-2:<\/strong> Elinizde hisseler var ve borsa 1500 puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Sizin hisse de art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti ve borsada art\u0131\u015f %2&#8217;ye ula\u015ft\u0131 sizin hisse %4 art\u0131da&#8230; Ne yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Nas\u0131l davranacaks\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Senaryo-3:<\/strong> Elinizde hisseler var ve borsa 1500 puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Sizin hisse de art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti ve borsada art\u0131\u015f %3&#8217;ye ula\u015ft\u0131,\u00a0 sizin hisseniz sadece %1 art\u0131da&#8230; Ne yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Nas\u0131l davranacaks\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Senaryo-4:<\/strong> Elinizde hi\u00e7 hisse yok\u00a0 ve borsa 1500 puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz hisse borsadan daha y\u00fcksek prim yaparak a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131&#8230; Alacak m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Yoksa biraz gerilesin de \u00f6yle alay\u0131m m\u0131 diyeceksiniz? Varsayal\u0131m ki hisse gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131, bu sefer &#8220;d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor biraz daha bekleyeyim mi diyeceksiniz? Yoksa daha \u00f6nce karar verdi\u011finiz fiyata gelince sorgulamadan alacak m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? E\u011fer bu se\u00e7ene\u011fi se\u00e7erseniz, neden o fiyattan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n doyurucu bir cevab\u0131 var m\u0131? Varsayal\u0131m ki ald\u0131n\u0131z ama hissede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f devam ediyor ve %1.5 zarardas\u0131n\u0131z,\u00a0 bu s\u0131rada borsada art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131yor&#8230; ne yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1928499793\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Senaryo-5:<\/strong> Elinizde hi\u00e7 hisse yok ve borsa 1500 puanl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz hisse borsadan daha fazla primle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, hemen alacak m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Varsayal\u0131m ki co\u015fku ile ald\u0131n\u0131z ve hisse y\u00fckseli\u015fine devam ediyor, mutlusunuz, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z fiyata g\u00f6re %3 yukar\u0131das\u0131n\u0131z&#8230; Almadan \u00f6nce hangi vade i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131za karar vermi\u015f miydiniz? G\u00fcn i\u00e7i satmak \u00fczere mi ald\u0131n\u0131z, yoksa zaten orta ve uzun vadeli almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordunuz da \u00f6yle mi ald\u0131n\u0131z? K\u00e2r hedefiniz ve zarar kes hedefiniz var m\u0131yd\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki senaryolar sadece be\u015f tanedir. Halbuki bu senaryolar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 sonsuzdur. Ka\u00e7 ki\u015fi acaba seans a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce yukar\u0131daki senaryolarda verilen sorulara cevap vererek i\u015flemlere ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0 Hepinizin seans \u00f6ncesi beklentileri vard\u0131r. Kafan\u0131zda kendi senaryonuz vard\u0131r. Sorun \u015fu ki, hemen hemen %99&#8217;unuz da confirmation bias ad\u0131 verilen beyin zaaf\u0131 vard\u0131r. Kafan\u0131zdaki senaryoya ters bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylenirse kabul etmezsiniz, y\u00fckselece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z hisse d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flarsa &#8220;birileri elinizdeki mal\u0131 kapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordur&#8221; vs vs..<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 10 bin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 okuyorsa, 10 bin tane ayr\u0131 senaryo vard\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc herkesin risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131, mali yap\u0131s\u0131, huyu, elindeki hissesi, borsaya ili\u015fkin beklentisi ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc farkl\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eimdi benden \u00f6yle bir yaz\u0131 yazmam\u0131 istiyorsunuz ki hepinize cevap olsun. Bu durumda sizlere \u015fu hisseyi al\u0131n demeliyim ve \u015furaya gelince sat\u0131n demeliyim. Varsayal\u0131m ki izleyen 10 bin ki\u015finin sadece 1000 tanesi, g\u00fcnde ortalama 1 milyon bin lot i\u015flem olan hissede 500&#8217;er lot al\u0131m yapt\u0131&#8230; Toplam 500 bin lot eder. Siz zannediyor musunuz ki para kazanacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Her \u00e7\u00f6pl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn bir horozu oldu\u011fu gibi her tahtan\u0131n bir horozu vard\u0131r. Sizlerin para kazanmas\u0131na izin mi verecekler? Benim nerde al nerde sat dedi\u011fimi onlar da biliyorlarsa, al\u0131m yapsan\u0131z bile k\u00e2rl\u0131 satt\u0131r\u0131rlar m\u0131? Tahtaya ciddi bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 koyarak, 7-8 kademe a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ektiklerinde ka\u00e7 ki\u015fi buna dayan\u0131r? Be\u015f 10 g\u00fcn boyunca hissenin k\u0131m\u0131ldamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rseniz, bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc gitmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rseniz, g\u00fczel bir k\u00fcf\u00fcr savurup, bana lanet okumaz m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn bir okuyucumun g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi e-postay\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015fay\u0131m. Kendisinden izin almad\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in ismini payla\u015fam\u0131yorum. Asl\u0131nda hepiniz bu arkada\u015f\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, borsa maceran\u0131zda ya\u015famad\u0131n\u0131z m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Selam, Ya\u015far Hocam<\/span><\/p>\n<div><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Ben &#8230;&#8230; \u0130linin &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.\u00a0 il\u00e7esinde g\u00f6rev yapmaktay\u0131m. Aslen bural\u0131y\u0131m. &#8230;&#8230; tarihinde\u00a0 e\u015fimin alt\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 satt\u0131k. Dolarla ba\u015flad\u0131m. Al-Sat yaparak 70 bin tl 74 bin tl yapt\u0131m. Sonra ilerleyen zamanda\u00a0 \u00a0Aselsan\u0131 ald\u0131m. 31,5 tl civar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 2240 lotum vard\u0131 aselsanda . Aselsan\u0131 110 bin tl hesab\u0131mda oldu\u011fu zamanda satmad\u0131m. \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 60 tl gideceklerini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlard\u0131. Forumlar. Sonra Aselsan d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 80 bin tl ye kadar kardan zarar ettim. Tekrar al-satlarla 72 bin tl ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. Sonra forumlar\u0131 takip ederek GEREL&#8217;i ald\u0131m . GEREL&#8217;le 90 bin tl ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131m. Ondan son GEREL de tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca 72 bin tl den kapatt\u0131m. Ba\u015fka hisseye ge\u00e7tim. Ordan 10 bin zarar. Ve hep zarar ve zarar ser\u00fcvenim ba\u015flad\u0131. TRNSK&#8217;e ge\u00e7tim 12 bin ordan TRNSK kapand\u0131. \u015fimdi 10b in ATPET&#8217;teyim (maliyetim(1,39) yirmi bin halkbtay\u0131m. Maliyetim(9 tl)<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 ve kaybetti\u011fimi tesad\u00fcflerle ve \u015fanslarla duyumlarla yap\u0131yordum.<\/strong> Sonu h\u00fcsranla bitiyor&#8230;\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"color: #000000;\">E-posta devam ediyor ve art\u0131k bal\u0131k tutmak istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve en sonunda da benden bir strateji istiyor&#8230;.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<p>Bu \u015fekilde davranan kim varsa, bence forumlar\u0131 takip etmeyi b\u0131rakmal\u0131&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kazanc\u0131n\u0131z da kayb\u0131n\u0131z da bir birini g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr ve ba\u015faba\u015fta kal\u0131rsan\u0131z bu en iyi sonu\u00e7tur. Kumarc\u0131 olmak yerine yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 olmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Neyse laf\u0131 fazla uzatmayay\u0131m&#8230; \u015eimdi sizlere bir soru daha soraca\u011f\u0131m&#8230;\u00a0 \u00c7in&#8217;de g\u00fczel bir elektronik kalem \u00fcretildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcz. Bu kalem lazer \u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131na sahip ve bal al\u0131rken bala tuttu\u011funuzda kalemin \u00fczerinde de\u011ferler beliriyor ve bal\u0131n i\u00e7inde \u015feker var m\u0131 yok mu anl\u0131yorsunuz&#8230; \u00dcstelik suni \u015feker oran\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ebiliyorsunuz&#8230; Bu kalemi ithal edeceksiniz ve fiyat\u0131 2$ olsun. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ka\u00e7 TL&#8217;ye satacaks\u0131n\u0131z? E\u011fer fiyat\u0131n\u0131z y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f yapamazs\u0131n\u0131z. Bu kalemi 100 TL&#8217;ye mi satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz? Sonra bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapt\u0131n\u0131z ve kalemi ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n 20 TL&#8217;ye satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcz. Sizin fiyat\u0131n\u0131z ne olurdu? Burada sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z fiyat\u0131 belirlemek art\u0131k \u00e7ok kolay&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bunu hisse senedine uyarlarsak, bir hisseyi 8 TL&#8217;ye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z fiyat\u0131 biliyor musunuz? \u0130\u015fte sorun burada ba\u015fl\u0131yor&#8230; Yukar\u0131daki arkada\u015fa GEREL&#8217;in ne i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, son y\u0131ll\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu sorsam bilemez. Ama GEREL al\u0131r ve zarar eder.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadede hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131 momentum yani art\u0131\u015f ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc belirler. Bir hisse art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7tikten sonra (e\u011fer ciddi manip\u00fclasyon yoksa) bu art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrekli olmaz. Bir yerde art\u0131\u015f durur. Beynimiz de art\u0131\u015f\u0131n durup, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 yeri bulmak ister&#8230; Ama beynimizin \u00f6yle bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi yoktur ve en yanl\u0131\u015f rehber beyindir.<\/p>\n<p>Uzun vadede ise hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131 \u015firketin y\u0131ll\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f ve k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi belirler&#8230; Bu konuda bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yapmam\u0131\u015fsan\u0131z, faaliyet raporlar\u0131n\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 okumam\u0131\u015fsan\u0131z, gelece\u011fe dair tahminler ve senaryolar geli\u015ftirmemi\u015fseniz hissenin uzun vadede nereye gidece\u011finizi bilemezsiniz&#8230; B\u0131rak\u0131n \u015fu borsay\u0131 izleme i\u015fini&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Sadede geleyim&#8230; E\u011fer borsada k\u0131sa vadeli Al-sat yap\u0131yor olsayd\u0131m, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015ftan sonraki ilk yar\u0131m saat i\u00e7inde hi\u00e7 bir \u015fey yapmazd\u0131m. Borsan\u0131n ilk 10-15 dakikada g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zirveden itibaren en az 500-750 puan d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekleyip, daha sonra endekse en yak\u0131n hareket eden veya elinde net d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131 olan \u015firket hisselerinden\u00a0 birka\u00e7 ka\u011f\u0131tta (3&#8217;ten fazla olmamal\u0131) al\u0131m yapard\u0131m ve hepsi i\u00e7in teknik stop (Zarar-kes) seviyelerini belirlerdim.\u00a0 K\u00e2r hedefim de ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 3-6 aras\u0131 olurdu. Bu k\u00e2r\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnce satard\u0131m. Ama kar hedefime ula\u015fmam\u0131\u015fsa ve stop noktas\u0131na da gelmemi\u015fse beklemeye devam ederdim.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer borsan\u0131n 120 binlerden 100 binlere\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ncesinde hisse alm\u0131\u015f olsam ve zararda olsam, elimdeki hisselerin hepsinin Mart bilan\u00e7o performanslar\u0131na bakar ve performans\u0131 bozulanlar\u0131 sat\u0131p, \u015fu an ihracat\u0131 olan, elinde net d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131 olan ve Mart ay\u0131nda da mali yap\u0131s\u0131nda sorun olmayan hisselere ge\u00e7er \u00f6yle beklerdim.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo bir al\u0131m \u00f6nerisi tablosu de\u011fildir. Merak edersiniz diye,\u00a0 Net Yabanc\u0131 para d\u00f6viz pozisyonunu, net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na oranlad\u0131m (son kolon). Bu listede finans, sigorta, GYO, Yat\u0131r\u0131m ortakl\u0131klar\u0131 bulunmuyor.\u00a0 Bilan\u00e7osu a\u00e7\u0131klanmayanlar 2017\/12 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Cirosuna g\u00f6re en y\u00fcksek net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu olanlardan en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (negatif) olana do\u011fru s\u0131ralan\u0131yor.\u00a0 Son olarak, borsada yar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131labiliriz, ama mal toplamak isteyenler a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratabilirler. Endeksin 1-2 hafta i\u00e7inde 106-107 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Bu tahminimin yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %25-30 aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. Stop seviyesi 99.350 seviyesidir. Ama stop seviyesini ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z hisse i\u00e7in belirlemek daha iyi olur.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=1CGxMmBLGWT6pnC5JE1dBJCJ9FJc2GFWi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TABLOYU \u0130ND\u0130RMEK VEYA G\u00d6RMEK \u0130\u00c7\u0130N BURAYI TIKLAYINIZ<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Paran\u0131z sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bozmas\u0131n&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6nceki gece\u00a0Dolar\u2019da 4.80 Seviyesi G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, MB\u2019n\u0131n ve Sizlerin Sinir U\u00e7lar\u0131\u00a0ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131mda dolar bir anda 4.65 seviyelerinden 4.80 seviyelerine f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Makul&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,1497,752,753,1496,715],"class_list":["post-54676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54676\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}