{"id":54548,"date":"2018-05-16T04:08:04","date_gmt":"2018-05-16T01:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=54548"},"modified":"2018-05-16T04:08:04","modified_gmt":"2018-05-16T01:08:04","slug":"cetin-unsalan-faizi-birak-girdi-maliyetlerine-bak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-faizi-birak-girdi-maliyetlerine-bak\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Faizi b\u0131rak; girdi maliyetlerine bak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda da faiz \u0131srar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7medi. Madem \u0131srarla dile getiriliyor; ben de b\u0131kmadan ger\u00e7e\u011fin tekrar alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izece\u011fim. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 kim yan\u0131lt\u0131yorsa d\u00fczeltemiyoruz.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3793115922\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekemezsiniz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz dedi\u011finiz \u015fey enflasyondan kaynaklanan y\u0131pranman\u0131n maliyetidir. Yani ancak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrseniz, faizlerin gev\u015feme ihtimali belirebilir. \u00dcstelik tek etken de bu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada paran\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu nedenle de daha pahal\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz para kullanman\u0131n bedelinin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz. Bitti mi? Hay\u0131r&#8230; TL\u2019nin ba\u015fta dolar olmak \u00fczere di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli de\u011fer kaybetmesi de bu maliyet unsurunu artt\u0131ran etkenlerden biridir.<\/p>\n<p>Bitti mi? Hay\u0131r&#8230; Sizin \u00fclke risk puan\u0131n\u0131z acil nakde ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z oldu\u011fu halde ucuza finansman kullanman\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck etkendir. Bu riski jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve yanl\u0131\u015f ekonomik uygulamalar kadar, bizzat iktidar\u0131n da a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Bankalar bug\u00fcn mevduat faiz yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmek zorunda kayd\u0131ysa, d\u0131\u015f kayna\u011fa yeterince ula\u015famad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n en net g\u00f6stergesidir. Bug\u00fcn reel sekt\u00f6r bankalardan, \u015firketlerin risk puan\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 18 ile 25 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen maliyetlerle kredi bulabiliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc para k\u0131t ve pahal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki bankalar\u0131n elinin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da Fitch ve Moody\u2019s a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan bir kez daha anl\u0131yoruz. Bakmay\u0131n \u00f6yle anl\u0131 \u015fanl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na; temenni etmem ama o i\u015f bir gecede de\u011fi\u015febilir. Ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>Bu i\u015fin faiz ve maliyet boyutu. Enflasyon meselesine gelirsek&#8230; Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek, reel sekt\u00f6r fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inece\u011fi, bu yolla da enflasyonun geriletilebilece\u011fi tezini savunuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131na etki eden tek unsur kulland\u0131klar\u0131 kredinin faiz maliyeti de\u011fil. \u00d6rne\u011fin 16 May\u0131s 2018 saat: 03.00 itibariyle dolar 4.45 seviyelerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 16 May\u0131s 2017 tarihinde dolar \/ TL kuru 3,54. Yani \u015firketleri gelir gider tablosu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan neredeyse y\u00fczde 33 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya da sermaye erimesi var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1868359828\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fi g\u00f6zde sekt\u00f6r\u00fc in\u015faata mercek tutal\u0131m. T\u00dc\u0130K rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re in\u015faat metrekare maliyetleri 2018 Ocak \u2013 Mart d\u00f6neminde, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine oranla y\u00fczde 23 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Hammadde maliyetlerini direkt etkileyen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na bakal\u0131m. Ge\u00e7en sene bug\u00fcnlerde Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 50-52 dolar civar\u0131nda geziniyordu. 16 May\u0131s 2018 itibariyle 78 dolar. Art\u0131\u015f neredeyse y\u00fczde 50&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerine&#8230; Asgari \u00fccret \u00fczerinden hesap edersek, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bir i\u015f\u00e7inin i\u015fverene maliyeti 2 bin 88 TL idi. Bug\u00fcn i\u015fverene te\u015fvikli maliyeti 2 bin 384 TL. Yani maliyeti y\u00fczde 15 artm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Elektrik maliyetine g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. 1 Nisan 2018 itibariyle uygulamaya giren son kaynak tedarik tebli\u011fi ile zaten sanayicinin k\u0131p\u0131rdayacak noktas\u0131 kalmad\u0131. Elektrikteki maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 takip dahi edilemiyor. Keza do\u011falgaz\u0131n da bundan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131r yan\u0131 yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3332117983\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki \u00fclkede a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon ne? May\u0131s 2018 ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksine g\u00f6re 12 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 15,36&#8230; T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131nda durum ne? Yine 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 11,06&#8230; Yani t\u00fcm maliyetleri resmi enflasyonun kat be kat \u00fczerinde artarken, maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f fiyatlara da yans\u0131t\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 alt alta koyarsak, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn belini banka kredi faizi mi b\u00fck\u00fcyor; yoksa faaliyet g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kan girdi maliyetleri mi? Paran\u0131n maliyeti sadece kredi kullan\u0131rsa kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kacak. Oysa girdi maliyeti ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n<p>Peki sadece faiz oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden oynanan bu alg\u0131 oyunu ne i\u015fe mi yar\u0131yor? Di\u011ferlerinin konu\u015fulmamas\u0131na. Sadece de bu nedenle bile T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn gizli iflas\u0131 derinle\u015fiyor. Ne diyelim hay\u0131rl\u0131 olsun. Biz hi\u00e7bir iktisadi temeli olmayan \u2018faiz d\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fer\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6lge oyununu izlemeye devam edelim.<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda da faiz \u0131srar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7medi. Madem \u0131srarla dile getiriliyor; ben de b\u0131kmadan ger\u00e7e\u011fin tekrar alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izece\u011fim. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 kim yan\u0131lt\u0131yorsa d\u00fczeltemiyoruz. Faizleri&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-54548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54548\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}