{"id":54398,"date":"2018-05-03T00:15:00","date_gmt":"2018-05-02T21:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=54398"},"modified":"2018-05-03T11:23:26","modified_gmt":"2018-05-03T08:23:26","slug":"cetin-unsalan-yukari-dogru-dusuyoruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-yukari-dogru-dusuyoruz\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Yukar\u0131 do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyoruz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde g\u00f6zler not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne \u00e7evrildi. S&amp;P\u2019nin not azalt\u0131m\u0131na gitmesi de iktidar ile kurum aras\u0131nda polemik konusu oldu. Ekonomiden hi\u00e7 anlamayanlar\u0131n ne dedi\u011fine bakmayal\u0131m. Onun yerine k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ayn\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131 yapan Ekonomiden Sorumlu Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in s\u00f6ylemlerine mercek tutal\u0131m.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-765218477\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Be\u015ftepe ayar\u0131 iyi gelmi\u015f olmal\u0131 ki, \u015eim\u015fek de kurulu\u015fun not indiriminin iyi analize dayanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi manidar oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Belirsizliklerin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten bahsetti. Se\u00e7imden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik olur mu; bunu da \u015eim\u015fek\u2019e soru olarak hediye edelim.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir iki nokta var. Bunlardan birincisi bu uluslararas\u0131 kredi derece kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 hem dikkate almay\u0131p, hem neden cevap verdikleri&#8230; \u00dcstelik S&amp;P, bildi\u011fim kadar\u0131yla anla\u015fmam\u0131z\u0131n devam etti\u011fi bir kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu de\u011fil. \u2018Sana ne\u2019 deyip arkam\u0131z\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcp neden gitmiyoruz?<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc IMF\u2019ye bor\u00e7 verilmesi kadar, kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 umursamad\u0131klar\u0131 sav\u0131n\u0131 da ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Bo\u015f efelenmeler i\u00e7erisinde, debelenen bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla bu i\u015flerin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kamazs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ben S&amp;P\u2019nin ne dedi\u011fini umursam\u0131yorum diyelim. Zira ekonomik \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131nda d\u00fcnyadan gelecek para olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nday\u0131m. Fakat ortaya koyduklar\u0131 tespitlerinin do\u011fru oldu\u011funun ad fark\u0131nday\u0131m. Bunu kay\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 kavgas\u0131 yaparak ya da umursamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyerek yok edemezsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim \u015eim\u015fek de s\u00f6ylenenlerin bir \u00e7o\u011funun do\u011fru oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nda. Ama Be\u015ftepe\u2019ye mesaj niteli\u011finde bir \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemek zorunda oldu\u011funu da hissediyor. \u0130\u015fte tam bu noktada \u00e7eli\u015fkiye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m ikinci konu da bu.<\/p>\n<p>Bir aydan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Uluda\u011f Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019nde s\u00f6yledikleriyle neredeyse bire bir tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedir? O zaman m\u0131 yan\u0131l\u0131yordu; \u015fimdi mi yan\u0131l\u0131yor? T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde bir ay i\u00e7inde mucize bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hepimiz biliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin savunmas\u0131n\u0131 yaparken s\u00f6ylediklerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131p, burada sizleri me\u015fgul etmek, sat\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131 da heba etmek istemem. T\u00fcm sa\u011flamay\u0131 tek bir madde \u00fczerinden yapabiliriz. Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselmenin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihtimalle ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu vurgusunu yapt\u0131. \u015eimdi buna g\u00fcler misin; a\u011flar m\u0131s\u0131n?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2269603497\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndan kaynaklanan bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunumuz varm\u0131\u015f ve bu da ge\u00e7iciymi\u015f. \u015eim\u015fek de ekonomiyi biliyor ama onda da reel sekt\u00f6r \u00f6zr\u00fc var. Meseleyi sadece rakamlardan ibaret zannediyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu iki fakt\u00f6r cari a\u00e7\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sadece bir neden. Ger\u00e7ek problem d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenemez y\u00fcksekli\u011finden kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcretimdeki girdi yap\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle ihracat yapt\u0131k\u00e7a artan bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Satt\u0131k\u00e7a bat\u0131yoruz. Meseleyi buradan g\u00f6rmez ve bunu \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekten tedbirler almazsan\u0131z, ancak b\u00f6yle kay\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 kavgas\u0131 yapars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki ger\u00e7ek sorun olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn kamuoyuna duyurulan verileriyle hemen sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 yapal\u0131m. \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in ge\u00e7ici diye nitelendirdi\u011fi bu a\u00e7\u0131k probleminde, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nisan 2018 itibariyle 12 ayl\u0131k rakamlar\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 86 milyar 613 milyon dolar oldu. Peki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde mi? \u0130hracat ve ithalat oranlar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re ihracatta y\u00fczde 10,2, ithalatta ise y\u00fczde 21,7 artt\u0131. Demek ki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 16\u2019larda oldu\u011funu dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, ithalat\u0131n ezici rol\u00fcn\u00fc de g\u00f6rmeniz m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 65\u2019lere d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck alarm. Ba\u015fka nas\u0131l bir uyar\u0131 bekliyorsunuz? Daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek devam ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1483266365\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>12 ayl\u0131k rakamlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k tuttu\u011fumuzda ise, bug\u00fcn itibariyle Nisan 2018 verilerini dikkate al\u0131rsak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde kaba bir hesapla yakla\u015f\u0131k 72 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k problemi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Bunun TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artan maliyeti de cabas\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Peki sadece bu rakamdan bile yola \u00e7\u0131ksan\u0131z; cari a\u00e7\u0131k nas\u0131l ge\u00e7ici bir sorun ve d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde? Cevab\u0131 basit&#8230; Yukar\u0131 do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015fme nas\u0131l m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur? Ancak uzayda ve yer\u00e7ekimsiz ortamda&#8230; \u0130ktidar\u0131n ayaklar\u0131 o kadar yerden kesilmi\u015f ki, bo\u015flukta ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 gibi, bizi de bo\u015flukta ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za inand\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P\u2019nin not indirimi mi? Bo\u015f verin; sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in ona ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z yok ki. Ayaklar\u0131n\u0131z yere bass\u0131n yeter.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde g\u00f6zler not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne \u00e7evrildi. S&amp;P\u2019nin not azalt\u0131m\u0131na gitmesi de iktidar ile kurum aras\u0131nda polemik konusu oldu. Ekonomiden hi\u00e7 anlamayanlar\u0131n ne dedi\u011fine bakmayal\u0131m. Onun&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-54398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54398\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}