{"id":53932,"date":"2018-04-02T20:00:41","date_gmt":"2018-04-02T17:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53932"},"modified":"2018-04-02T17:33:20","modified_gmt":"2018-04-02T14:33:20","slug":"cetin-unsalan-2019un-nakit-ihtiyaci-260-milyar-dolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-2019un-nakit-ihtiyaci-260-milyar-dolar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; 2019\u2019un nakit ihtiyac\u0131 260 milyar dolar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u0130hracatta ay ay rekor k\u0131rmaya devam ediyoruz. \u0130fade edilen o ki, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 170 milyar dolar ihracatla kapataca\u011f\u0131z. Bu memnuniyet duyulmas\u0131 gereken bir \u015fey, \u015fayet her satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zarar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctm\u00fcyor olsayd\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1300040687\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ithalattaki art\u0131\u015f, ihracattaki sevinci kursakta b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Hepsinin de \u00f6tesinde dolar bazl\u0131 nakit ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetini artt\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle gelecek senenin se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci oldu\u011funu da dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, \u00f6demeler dengesinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zafiyetin gizliden ya da a\u00e7\u0131ktan olaca\u011f\u0131 kesin.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sene itibariyle d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte 51 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131n\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f bulunuyoruz. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r, kamu \u00f6demelerinin \u00fczerine bunun maliyeti ilave edildi\u011finde 2018 itibariyle bulmam\u0131z gereken nakit para 236 milyar dolara eri\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ger\u00e7ekten yola \u00e7\u0131karsak ekstra bir harcama, fazladan, k\u0131sa vadeli ve y\u00fcksek faizli bir bor\u00e7lanma yapmazsak; t\u00fcketimi ekstradan artt\u0131r\u0131p enflasyon temelli yeni maliyetleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koymazsak bile tablo hi\u00e7 i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Herkes havai fi\u015fek patlatarak kutlamalar yap\u0131yor. Elbette bunda ihracat\u00e7\u0131 birliklerinin se\u00e7im d\u00f6neminin olmas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi var. Fakat ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan foto\u011fraf\u0131n faturas\u0131, bizim daha ivedi konu\u015fmam\u0131z gereken noktay\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kamu, banka ve reel sekt\u00f6r ayn\u0131 bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesinde kalsa bile, \u015fu ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmayan d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi bize fazladan 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k ek kaynak ihtiyac\u0131 getiriyor. Nas\u0131l m\u0131? \u00d6ncelikle son a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri g\u00f6sterdi ki, ithalat\u0131m\u0131z ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n iki kat\u0131 oran\u0131nda art\u0131yor. Bu da \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki anormalli\u011fin ve ithalat ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n eseri.<\/p>\n<p>Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 85 milyar dolara dayand\u0131. Bu da alt\u0131da be\u015fe denk gelen kaba bir hesapla cari a\u00e7\u0131kta 70 milyar dolar seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. \u015eayet ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ortaya koyduklar\u0131 gibi 170 milyar dolar rakam\u0131n\u0131 yakalarsak, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda iyimser rakamlarla d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 90 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir.<\/p>\n<p>Yine ayn\u0131 kaba hesab\u0131 yaparsak bu da 75 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k maliyetini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koyacak demektir. Ayr\u0131ca bu sene turizm gibi sekt\u00f6rlerin cirolar\u0131n\u0131n da ihracat rakam\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve kaynak kullan\u0131m\u0131nda hesap hatas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1349082149\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi tekrar ayn\u0131 hesab\u0131 yaparsak&#8230; \u015eu an toplam k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme miktar\u0131m\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fmese bile, cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131yla birlikte 236 milyar dolar bulmam\u0131z gereken nakit para miktar\u0131, 2019 senesinde 260 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze gelecek. Bunun \u015fimdiden ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken bir konu oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekmek istiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc paran\u0131n her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn maliyetinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve k\u0131tla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te, daralan bir t\u00fcnelde gidiyoruz. Bir an \u00f6nce \u00fcretim yap\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7erisindeki ithal ikame oran\u0131 \u00fczerinde ciddi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yapmal\u0131y\u0131z. Aksi takdirde satmamak, satmaktan daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 hale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bir de dikkatimi \u00e7eken husus d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131&#8230; Merkez Bankas\u0131 2018 sonunda ortalama de\u011fer olarak y\u00fczde 8 enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 bu y\u00f6nde. Peki d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, yani \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin y\u00fczde 15 civar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ne yapaca\u011f\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>Basit anlat\u0131mla \u00fcretici toplam ticaretinde y\u00fczde 15 i\u00e7eri girecek, TL baz\u0131ndaki maliyetleri bundan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmayacak ve sadece \u00fcr\u00fcne y\u00fczde 8 zam yapm\u0131\u015f olacak \u00f6yle mi? Ya hedeflenen enflasyon ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fil ya da sermaye erimesindeki h\u0131z art\u0131yor. Bu hesaplar\u0131 yapmadan ihracat konu\u015fuyorsak, kendimizi kand\u0131r\u0131yoruz demektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1583048904\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yoksa elbette g\u00f6n\u00fcl 170 de\u011fil, 200 milyar dolar\u0131 arzu eder. Ama bu y\u00fckseli\u015f zarar\u0131 m\u0131, kazanc\u0131 m\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ona bakmak ve \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 olmadan bir \u015feyler yapmak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130hracatta ay ay rekor k\u0131rmaya devam ediyoruz. \u0130fade edilen o ki, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 170 milyar dolar ihracatla kapataca\u011f\u0131z. Bu memnuniyet duyulmas\u0131 gereken bir \u015fey, \u015fayet&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-53932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53932\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}