{"id":5390,"date":"2011-09-21T13:52:04","date_gmt":"2011-09-21T10:52:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5390"},"modified":"2011-09-21T13:52:04","modified_gmt":"2011-09-21T10:52:04","slug":"tl-borclar-icin-de-olsa-not-artirimi-onemli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tl-borclar-icin-de-olsa-not-artirimi-onemli\/","title":{"rendered":"TL bor\u00e7lar i\u00e7in de olsa not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nemli"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&amp;P T\u00fcrkiye Hazinesi&#8217;nin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 TL cinsi bor\u00e7lanma senetlerinin notunu BBB-&#8216;ye y\u00fckseltti. B\u00f6ylece notumuz yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir d\u00fczey olan BBB kategorisine gelmi\u015f oldu. Neredeydik nereye geldik?<br \/>\nNot art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6viz cinsi bonolarda de\u011fil, TL cinsi bonolarda oldu. D\u00f6viz cinsi bonolarda notumuz h\u00e2l\u00e2 BB d\u00fczeyinde. Yani, d\u00f6viz cinsi bor\u00e7lanmalarda hen\u00fcz yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir d\u00fczeye gelmi\u015f de\u011filiz.<br \/>\nNot art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsemeyelim. TL cinsi bonolarda da olsa, not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin geldi\u011fi a\u015famay\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Avrupa kriz i\u00e7indeyken, Amerika ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ate\u015flemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p beceremezken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan parl\u0131yor. S&amp;P&#8217;nin yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dok\u00fcmanda da belirtti\u011fi gibi, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorununu halledebilirsek, kamu maliyesi dengesinde sosyal g\u00fcvenlik reformu gibi kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayabilecek iyile\u015fmeleri yapabilirsek, d\u00f6viz cinsinden notumuz da artabilir. Ama, galiba bu a\u015fama i\u00e7in biraz bekleyece\u011fiz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1637347\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>17 YILLIK TAHR\u0130BAT<\/strong><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye 1990&#8217;l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda S&amp;P taraf\u0131ndan tarihinde ilk kez de\u011ferlendirilirken BBB notu alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyonu y\u00fcksek de olsa, kamu maliyesi y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131klar da verse, o d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden farkl\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyordu. 1993 y\u0131l\u0131nda daha da bozulmaya ba\u015flayan ekonomik dengeler kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da harekete ge\u00e7irdi. 1993 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ile 1994 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k aral\u0131klarla T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00c7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede notumuz yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir d\u00fczeyin alt\u0131na geldi. Hatta, bir ara notumuz B&#8217;ye kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. C&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015fmeye ramak kald\u0131.<br \/>\n1994 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana, TL cinsi bonolarda da olsa, ilk kez yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir d\u00fczeye geldik. Bir anlamda 1994 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan ekonomik krizin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine verdi\u011fi tahribat\u0131 ancak on yedi y\u0131l sonra onarmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131k.<br \/>\nS&amp;P gibi kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz cinsi bonolar yan\u0131nda yerli para cinsi bonolar \u00fczerinden not vermesi g\u00f6reli olarak daha yeni bir olgu. Yerli paran\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paraya g\u00f6re do\u011fal olarak bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc var. Kamu finansman dengesi ne derece k\u00f6t\u00fc olursa olsun, yerli para cinsi bor\u00e7lar\u0131 her devlet para basarak \u00f6deyebilir. Kendi paran\u0131z\u0131 bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z s\u00fcrece, devletin yerli para cinsinden bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyememesi gibi bir sorun olmas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z. Sorun, bas\u0131lan paralarla \u00f6denen borcun de\u011ferinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. Genelde, yerli para cinsinden verilen not d\u00f6viz cinsinden (basmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z para cinsinden) bor\u00e7lanmalara verilen nottan y\u00fcksek olur. Yerli para cinsinden notun artmas\u0131 yine de ekonomiye artan g\u00fcvenin bir i\u015faretidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00dcY\u00dcME HIZLANAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><br \/>\nYabanc\u0131 para cinsinden notumuz ne zaman artacak? S&amp;P&#8217;nin s\u00f6yledi\u011fine g\u00f6re, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimine girdi\u011finde, banka kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve \u00e7e\u015fitli reformlarla kamu maliyesindeki d\u00fczelme kal\u0131c\u0131 hale geldi\u011finde, d\u00f6viz cinsi bor\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da notu y\u00fckselebilir. Bunun anlam\u0131, notumuzun artmas\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin so\u011fumas\u0131 gerekiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6zendirici politikalar bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok olumlu say\u0131lmaz.<br \/>\nEkonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer mi? Bu da \u00e7ok kesin de\u011fil. \u00d6rne\u011fin, k\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesinde, 2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimindeydi, ama cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 artmaya devam etmi\u015fti. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren k\u00fcresel kriz olmu\u015ftu.<br \/>\nS&amp;P&#8217;nin not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri yeniden d\u00fczelten bir etken olabilecek. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, not art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi uygulanan ekonomik politikalardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir bi\u00e7imde i\u00e7 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yeniden ate\u015fleyebilir. O takdirde de, d\u00f6viz cinsinden kredi notumuzun artmas\u0131 \u00e7ok k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ercan Kumcu \u00a0&#8211; Bloomberg HT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&amp;P T\u00fcrkiye Hazinesi&#8217;nin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 TL cinsi bor\u00e7lanma senetlerinin notunu BBB-&#8216;ye y\u00fckseltti. B\u00f6ylece notumuz yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir d\u00fczey olan BBB kategorisine gelmi\u015f oldu. Neredeydik&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5390\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}