{"id":53898,"date":"2018-03-29T23:25:06","date_gmt":"2018-03-29T20:25:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53898"},"modified":"2018-03-30T08:16:58","modified_gmt":"2018-03-30T05:16:58","slug":"cetin-unsalan-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; B\u00fcy\u00fc(me)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Ekonomimiz 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle tamamlad\u0131. \u00d6ncelikle bu zor ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bunun bir moral de\u011fer oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek gerekiyor. Fakat bu moral de\u011feri ve sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman avantaj\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak, hasar giderici aktivitelere girdi\u011fimizi s\u00f6ylemek ise hayalperestlik olur.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2106582874\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Oysa daha \u00f6nce bunun kalk\u0131nma getirmese de, bir zaman kazand\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve zaman\u0131 do\u011fru kullanarak, hasar azalt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler almam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ne yaz\u0131k ki gelinen noktada, tam anlam\u0131yla s\u0131f\u0131r noktas\u0131nda olmasa da bu dersin ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i y\u00f6ntemlerle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek g\u00fc\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>Yine b\u00fcy\u00fclenmi\u015f gibi, reel sekt\u00f6rden siyaset\u00e7ilere kadar herkes Tevfik Fikret\u2019in \u201cYeis\u201d diyerek S\u00fcleyman Nazif\u2019e yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 mektuptaki gibi \u201cBir gaza ettin ki ho\u015fn\u00fbd eyledin Peygamber\u2019i alk\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla onlar\u0131n bu dan\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00f6v\u00fc\u015flerini, namussuzlu\u011fun bu vicdan\u0131 k\u0131ran yenmesini alk\u0131\u015flayacak namuslular da var\u201d tad\u0131nda konu\u015fmay\u0131 tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Burada di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden daha fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcmemize fazla de\u011finmeyece\u011fim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fczde 6,8 ya da ABD\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile bizimkinin aras\u0131nda, ekonomiye etkisi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sonu\u00e7 fark\u0131 var. Ayr\u0131ca bunun bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile olu\u015fan baz etkisinin de rol\u00fcyle bu rakamlara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek bir boyun borcu.<\/p>\n<p>Yine de d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin kalk\u0131nma ve refah yaratmas\u0131 gerekmiyor mu? Oysa y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelire oranla, y\u00fczde 7,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 dolar daha fazla fakirle\u015ftik. Milli gelirin ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hesab\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilsek de, bu gerilemenin asl\u0131nda kalk\u0131nma yaratmayan bir \u015fi\u015fme ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n delili oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etki eden fakt\u00f6rlerin ne anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na&#8230; Ne yaz\u0131k ki ihracat\u0131n bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki pay\u0131 1,9 d\u00fczeyinde&#8230; Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise sadece 1,8&#8230; Kamu harcamalar\u0131 da 1,1 oran\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, Yani ne satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan ne de kamu ad\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z harcamadan ne de yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak bir de\u011fer elde edemedik. Ger\u00e7ek bir ekonomiden bu resim i\u00e7inde s\u00f6z etmek g\u00fc\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130thalat\u0131n eksi 5 ile oran azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 foto\u011fraf da bir garip. O zaman 77 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun sonucu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan 51 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k bu hesab\u0131n neresinde? Peki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etki eden en \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131klar hangisi? Y\u00fczde 4,1 ile t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131, y\u00fczde 3,4 de stok i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00fcretimler.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu bize ne anlat\u0131yor? Sadece i\u00e7 piyasada men\u015fei belirsiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yap\u0131lan i\u00e7 hacim ve stoklara y\u0131\u011f\u0131lan \u00fcretimlerle b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz. \u0130\u00e7 piyasan\u0131n neredeyse tamamen ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin hakimiyetine ve bor\u00e7la harcamaya ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, tahsilat sorunu kronik bir bi\u00e7imde ortadayken, muhtemelen paras\u0131 tahsil edilemeyen alacaklar bulundu\u011fu bir ger\u00e7ekle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1061415008\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Stok i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00fcretimler ise ekstra bir stok maliyeti getirece\u011finden, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te reel sekt\u00f6r ad\u0131na bir ba\u015fka finansman alarm\u0131n\u0131n habercisi olarak bize sinyal veriyor. Netice itibariyle ortada bir kalk\u0131nma yok.<\/p>\n<p>Peki t\u00fcm bunlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yine de diyebilirsiniz ki \u2018\u00f6yle ya da b\u00f6yle y\u00fczde 7,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck.\u2019 Ne yaz\u0131k ki orada da kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za dolar ger\u00e7e\u011fi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2016 Aral\u0131k sonu itibariyle dolar \/TL kurunun 3,52 oldu\u011funu dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, 2017 Aral\u0131k sonunda ekonomimizin dolar nedenli erimesi y\u00fczde 7,5, bug\u00fcn itibariyle de y\u00fczde 13.<\/p>\n<p>Yani ger\u00e7ekten b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f bile olsak, onu da dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki erimeye kurban etmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyoruz. \u015eayet b\u00fcy\u00fclenmediyseniz bu b\u00fcy\u00fc(me) rakam\u0131ndaki ger\u00e7ekleri de g\u00f6r\u00fcyor olman\u0131z laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi tercih yine bizim. Ya i\u00e7i bo\u015f bu kalk\u0131nma yaratmayan \u015fi\u015fmeyle \u00f6v\u00fcnece\u011fiz ya da haz\u0131r bu rakam\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015fken kendimizi kaybetmeyip, bunu hasar azalt\u0131c\u0131 bir zaman kazanma olarak g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u0130lk izlenimlere bak\u0131nca \u00fcz\u00fclerek g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum ki, biz yine birinci tercihi kullan\u0131yoruz. Yeis, yeis, yeis&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3103601936\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomimiz 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle tamamlad\u0131. \u00d6ncelikle bu zor ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bunun bir moral de\u011fer oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek gerekiyor. Fakat bu moral de\u011feri ve sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-53898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53898","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53898"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53898\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}