{"id":53717,"date":"2018-03-19T19:12:40","date_gmt":"2018-03-19T16:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53717"},"modified":"2018-03-19T19:12:40","modified_gmt":"2018-03-19T16:12:40","slug":"cetin-unsalan-dolara-sasirmak-zekayla-alaydir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-dolara-sasirmak-zekayla-alaydir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Dolara \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmak zek\u00e2yla alayd\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Herkesin dilinde ayn\u0131 soru: Dolara ne oluyor? Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmeler her zaman, g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131 da beraberinde getiriyor. Oysa dolarla ilgili ya\u015fanan anormal hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yok. S\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde dalgal\u0131 seyir izlese de dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabak gibi ortadayken, halen bunu bir \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k ve piyasa yapma vesilesi g\u00f6renlere inanam\u0131yorum.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3531714579\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eu anki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n FED\u2019in faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadelenin getirdi\u011fi maliyetlere ve jeopolitik ortama kadar bir\u00e7ok etkisi var. D\u00fcnyada geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda ya\u015fananlar, ABD\u2019nin vergi reformu ya da not indirimleri de bunda etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7 biri genel ger\u00e7e\u011fi de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla y\u00fczle\u015femeyen hasta gibi, tedavi yerine \u00fcf\u00fcr\u00fck\u00e7\u00fc pe\u015finde ko\u015ftu\u011fumuz s\u00fcrece de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fmeyi yakalamam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar 4 TL\u2019yi zorluyor mu? Evet&#8230; Gev\u015feyebilir mi? Ona da evet. Sonra daha \u00e7ok \u00e7\u0131kabilir mi? Elbette evet. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ya da k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin dalgalanmalar g\u00fcnl\u00fck sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir. Hatta baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n risk satabilmek i\u00e7in bu dalgalanmaya da ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. S\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselen bir de\u011ferde kimseye elinizdeki riski satamazs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Burada bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken genel durumun ne anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. 77 milyar dolara vuran cari a\u00e7\u0131k var m\u0131? Tar\u0131mdan sanayiye ithal ik\u00e2meli bir ekonomi yarat\u0131ld\u0131 m\u0131? Uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z kullan\u0131lan para 481 milyar dolar\u0131 vurdu mu?<\/p>\n<p>Her y\u0131l 200 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n paray\u0131, bor\u00e7 \u00e7evrimi ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in bulmak zorunda m\u0131y\u0131z? \u0130thal parayla bor\u00e7lanan \u015firketler ve vatanda\u015f ger\u00e7e\u011fi var m\u0131? Enflasyonu \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in halen \u00e7areyi ithalatta g\u00f6ren bir iktidara sahip miyiz?<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktidar para bulmak i\u00e7in elde avu\u00e7taki satmaya, kalanlar\u0131 da Varl\u0131k Fonu\u2019na at\u0131p, para bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor mu? Ayn\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 m\u00fcteahhitlere para kazand\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bilmem ka\u00e7 kere s\u00f6k\u00fcp tak\u0131yor muyuz?<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6revsiz barajlara milyar dolarlar yat\u0131r\u0131yor, bunun i\u00e7in de halen d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan para ar\u0131yor muyuz? \u00dclkede 25 milyon icral\u0131k dosya, 600 milyar TL\u2019ye yakla\u015fan vatanda\u015f borcu ve 250 milyar dolar\u0131 zorlayan bir reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00f6viz borcu bulunuyor mu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1140974653\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki t\u00fcm bunlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k elinizde ne var? Her \u015fey yolunda giderse 2018 sonunda 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalayacak bir turizm geliri; satt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 alan bir ekonomi nedeniyle eksi veren bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi, notlar\u0131 s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015fen bankalar\u0131n pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 sendikasyon bor\u00e7lar\u0131, \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131klara para bulunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen devlet garantili bor\u00e7lanma ger\u00e7e\u011fi, toplam rezervinin i\u00e7inde de ani bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta kullanabilece\u011finiz d\u00f6viz art\u0131 alt\u0131n 25 \u2013 30 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda bir para.<\/p>\n<p>Bak\u0131n d\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeleri, jeopolitik riskleri, FED faiz ve bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesiyle gelecek ekstra riskleri saym\u0131yorum bile.. \u015eimdi t\u00fcm bu foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde dolar\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketlerini bir kenara koyarsak, TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan ve bunun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131ndan daha normal ne var? 3,75 kura, dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck denilen kabulden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kan\u0131t olabilir mi?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi yeni bir \u015feyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f gibi dolara \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmak, hem zek\u00e2yla alayd\u0131r; hem de risk satmak i\u00e7in ortam yaratmakt\u0131r. Hi\u00e7 kimsenin buna hakk\u0131 yok. Ekonomide ger\u00e7eklerle y\u00fczle\u015fmeden de bulunacak bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yok.<\/p>\n<p>Ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131p \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rarak ekonomiyi y\u00f6netemezsiniz. Ancak siz sorunlar\u0131n \u00fczerini \u00f6rterken, birilerinin para kazanmas\u0131na, memleketin de daha \u00e7ok batmas\u0131na neden olursunuz. \u015eimdi \u015fa\u015f\u0131r\u0131r ya da isyan eder gibi tav\u0131r tak\u0131nmay\u0131n. Hi\u00e7 olmazsa zek\u00e2m\u0131zla alay etmeyin.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-832236218\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ho\u015f bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok zeki olmak da gerekmiyor. Biraz sorunlarla y\u00fczle\u015felim yeter. T\u0131pk\u0131 Einstein\u2019in dedi\u011fi gibi: \u201c\u00c7ok zeki oldu\u011fumdan de\u011fil; sadece sorunlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde daha \u00e7ok duruyorum.\u201d Deneyin, i\u015fe yarayacak.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkesin dilinde ayn\u0131 soru: Dolara ne oluyor? Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmeler her zaman, g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131 da beraberinde getiriyor. Oysa dolarla ilgili ya\u015fanan anormal hi\u00e7bir \u015fey&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-53717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53717\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}