{"id":53653,"date":"2018-03-13T12:21:51","date_gmt":"2018-03-13T09:21:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53653"},"modified":"2018-03-13T12:28:18","modified_gmt":"2018-03-13T09:28:18","slug":"piyasalari-etkileyen-son-gelismeler-ve-piyasanin-reaksiyonlari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/piyasalari-etkileyen-son-gelismeler-ve-piyasanin-reaksiyonlari\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar\u0131 Etkileyen Son Geli\u015fmeler ve Piyasan\u0131n Reaksiyonlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>Ge\u00e7en hafta yazm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fum yaz\u0131daki ( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2018\/03\/07\/kuresel-gorunum-dow-teorisi-borsalar-ve-kaotik-surecler\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">K\u00fcresel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Dow Teorisi, Borsalar ve Kaotik S\u00fcre\u00e7ler\u00a0<\/a> ) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi de\u011fi\u015ftiren bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok k\u0131saca son geli\u015fmelere de\u011finece\u011fim.\u00a0 Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere o yaz\u0131dan bu yana Moody&#8217;s notumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve piyasalar \u00fczerindeki en az\u0131ndan ilk a\u015famadaki etkisi \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Moodys&#8217;in verdi\u011fi kararlar genellikle siyasi etkiler i\u00e7eriyor. Hakl\u0131 olduklar\u0131 taraflar da var, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin durumlar\u0131n\u0131 ve notlar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda haks\u0131z olduklar\u0131 taraflar da var. Fakat, hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z ABD&#8217;de Obama ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00fcn notumuzu art\u0131rm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Bu durum Moodys&#8217;in hanesine ciddi bir soru i\u015fareti koymama neden olmu\u015ftu. O s\u0131ralar notumuzu y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in bundan hi\u00e7 rahats\u0131z olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k ama, piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131llard\u0131r izleyen biri olarak o g\u00fcn bug\u00fcnd\u00fcr, Moodys&#8217;in kararlar\u0131n\u0131n siyasi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u00fcm. \u015eu an ABD ile aram\u0131z d\u00fczelse ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olsak\u00a0 notumuzu hemen art\u0131rabilirler. \u0130\u015fte bu sebeple Moodys&#8217;in verdi\u011fi notu piyasa gibi ben de ciddiye almad\u0131m. Evet biz ciddiye almasak da, karar sonras\u0131nda ve \u00f6zellikle de son 2-3 g\u00fcndeki piyasa hareketlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n gizli bir ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f plan\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde olduklar\u0131 da ortada. Bu konuya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da de\u011finece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-800973686\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn\u00a0 cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilerimiz a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z artarken, ihracat yapmak i\u00e7in ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da art\u0131rmak zorunda oldu\u011fumuz bir kez daha belirgin bir \u015fekilde kendini g\u00f6sterdi ve tahminen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH&#8217;ya oran\u0131 %5.5 seviyesini ge\u00e7mi\u015f bulunuyor.\u00a0 \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn y\u00fckl\u00fc bir d\u0131\u015f borcu olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, k\u00fcresel olarak faizlerin artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde, dolardaki son hareket ciddiye al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD endekslerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapatmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, d\u00fcn borsa y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve dolar yukar\u0131 giderken bile \u00e7ok fazla gev\u015femedi. Ama 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizlerimizde ciddi bir yukar\u0131 hareket oldu. Bu tahvilin faizi son 3-4 g\u00fcnde 13.15 seviyelerinden 13.75 seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi. Yani tahvilde sat\u0131\u015f vard\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klarda da 12.10 seviyelerinden 12.75 seviyesine y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu. yani tahvilde sat\u0131\u015f vard\u0131. Borsa her ne kadar tutunmu\u015f olsa da, yer yer sat\u0131\u015flar geldi, fakat a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyenin alt\u0131na gerilemedi. Bu s\u0131rada Dolar endeksi (DXY) d\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7indeyken Dolar\/TL kuru artmaya devam ediyor ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde en fazla de\u011fer kaybeden para birimlerinden biri konumuna geliyordu. Bug\u00fcn 3.85 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde hareket ediyor.\u00a0 Yani ortam ho\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere, 21 Mart&#8217;ta FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak ama bir farkla. Bu sefer FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen de\u011fil, Powell olacak. Powell&#8217;\u0131n temsilciler meclisinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmay\u0131 baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131mda bu toplant\u0131dan sonra yap\u0131lacak olan a\u00e7\u0131klama metninde \u00f6ncekine g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli kelime de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri olabilir. \u015eu an piyasalar Mart ay\u0131ndaki bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n ald\u0131 ve \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla FED politika faizini\u00a0 25 baz puan art\u0131racakt\u0131r ama yap\u0131lacak olan a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n kelimeleri \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Powell&#8217;in konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen biri g\u00fcvercin bir a\u00e7\u0131klama beklememeli ve piyasalar\u0131n bunu sat\u0131n al\u0131p almad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan emin de\u011filim. Zaten yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n son 2-3 ayd\u0131r hissede ve tahvilde sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p dolara ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz (hissede sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yabanc\u0131 takas oran\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor). Son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr, tahvil ve borsada sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-53654\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/TAKAS-13-mart-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"392\" height=\"338\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/TAKAS-13-mart-2018.png 392w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/TAKAS-13-mart-2018-300x259.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 392px) 100vw, 392px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131mda da vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m ana tema, sadece bizde de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel olarak borsalarda trend de\u011fi\u015fimi sinyalleri var. Trend de\u011fi\u015fimi bir g\u00fcnde olmaz. Tepe seviyelerde \u00e7e\u015fitli formasyonlar (Elmas, \u00e7ift tepe, omuz-ba\u015f-omuz vs..) olu\u015fur ve bunun i\u00e7in de zamana ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131r ve ben de bu t\u00fcr bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te oldu\u011fumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerdenim. Yan\u0131labilir miyim? Daha \u00f6nceki yan\u0131lg\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131n istatisti\u011fine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda yan\u0131lma pay\u0131m %25-30 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r ve bu y\u00fcksek bir olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r. E\u011fer, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir iki ayda borsalar daha \u00f6nceki zirvelerini ge\u00e7erse o durumda yeni geli\u015fen \u015fartlara g\u00f6re yeni de\u011ferlendirme yapmam gerekecek. Piyasalar de\u011fi\u015fkendir ve hava a\u00e7ar kapan\u0131r, ya\u011fmur f\u0131rt\u0131na olur, g\u00fcne\u015f a\u00e7ar. Bu y\u00fczden bir tane veri ile dahi bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimiz 180 derece de\u011fi\u015febilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, FED toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fcvercin mesajlar beklemiyorum ama e\u011fer belirgin bir \u015fekilde g\u00fcvercin mesajlar gelirse, borsalarda yeni y\u00fckseli\u015f hamleleri g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Fakat az \u00f6nce de s\u00f6yledi\u011fim \u00fczere, bunun olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %25-30 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu y\u00fczden beni veya bir ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131 okudu\u011funuzda maalesef i\u00e7inizden ge\u00e7eni s\u00f6ylemi\u015fsek, beyinler %100 olacak \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131yor ve bu sizin elinizde de\u011fil. Ama burada yazd\u0131klar\u0131m, birine ters geliyorsa, o ki\u015fi de %25-20 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 90 olarak alg\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kurunun teknik analizini yapal\u0131m. Grafik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-53655\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/dolar-13-mart-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"569\" height=\"409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/dolar-13-mart-2018.png 652w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/dolar-13-mart-2018-300x216.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 569px) 100vw, 569px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL grafi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere 3.85 seviyesinde bir diren\u00e7 vard\u0131. Bu diren\u00e7 bug\u00fcn yukar\u0131 do\u011fru zorlama yap\u0131yor. 3.72-3.85 aras\u0131ndaki kanal\u0131n boyu 13 kuru\u015f olup, e\u011fer dolar\/TL kuru iki g\u00fcn byunca 3.86 z\u00fcerinde tutunursa, Fibonacci&#8217;nin %61.8 \u00e7izgisine kadar 3.89 ilk y\u00fckseli\u015f denemesini yapacakt\u0131r. \u015eu an %50 \u00e7izgisi \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. Daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda da dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu, yerlilerin d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle dolar\u0131n bask\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyordum. Ama \u015fu an yabanc\u0131lardan da dolar al\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131 dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu a\u015famada \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir iki haftal\u0131k s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde dolar\/TL i\u00e7in 3.81&#8217;nin alt\u0131na gerilemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama 3.82-3.83 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gerileyerek g\u00fc\u00e7 toplamay\u0131 deneyebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 ay i\u00e7in genel olarak sadece bir tane varl\u0131\u011fa odaklanmamak gerekir. Yani paran\u0131z\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dolara, veya borsaya ya da alt\u0131na yat\u0131rmak risklidir. Senaryonuza ne kadar g\u00fcvenirseniz g\u00fcvenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 ay i\u00e7in paran\u0131z\u0131 sadece 1 varl\u0131\u011fa yat\u0131rmay\u0131n\u0131z. Mutlaka sepet yap\u0131n\u0131z. Borsan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine inansan\u0131z da, borsaya ters hareket edecek ka\u011f\u0131tlar her zaman vard\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fi inceledi\u011fimizde borsa 3-4 y\u0131l hi\u00e7 bir \u015fey kazand\u0131rmazken, borsay\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7e d\u00f6rde katlayan hisseler olur. Bu hisselerin en \u00f6nemli \u00f6zelli\u011fi de, karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131ran, verimli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapan \u015firketlerdir. Hepinize bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3735020009\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NOTLAR<\/strong>: Bu ak\u015fam 21:00&#8217;de youtube&#8217;da e\u011fitici bir yay\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Daha \u00f6nce b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeleri anlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.\u00a0 Bu ak\u015fam ise, sizlerden bana daha \u00f6nce gelmi\u015f olan ve geneli ilgilendiren sorular\u0131 cevaplayaca\u011f\u0131m. Hisse sorular\u0131na cevap vermeyece\u011fim, fakat gerekti\u011finde bir hisse \u00fczerinde konuyu iyi anlatmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6rnek inceleme yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Sorular\u0131n\u0131z varsa (hisse olmamak \u015fart\u0131yla) bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki yorum b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yazabilirsiniz.\u00a0 \u0130zmir e\u011fitimimiz 24-25 Mart tarihlerinde olacak. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.drerdincegitimonline.com\/urun\/izmir-tekniktemel-24-25-mart-2018\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Buradan ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilirsiniz.\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta yazm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fum yaz\u0131daki ( K\u00fcresel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Dow Teorisi, Borsalar ve Kaotik S\u00fcre\u00e7ler\u00a0 ) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi de\u011fi\u015ftiren bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok k\u0131saca son geli\u015fmelere&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,1497,752,753,1496,715],"class_list":["post-53653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-duser-mi","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari","tag-dolar-yukselir-mi","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53653\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}