{"id":5365,"date":"2011-09-21T09:21:55","date_gmt":"2011-09-21T06:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5365"},"modified":"2011-09-21T09:22:03","modified_gmt":"2011-09-21T06:22:03","slug":"yunanistanin-kurtarilmasi-italyanin-derdine-care-degil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yunanistanin-kurtarilmasi-italyanin-derdine-care-degil\/","title":{"rendered":"Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n Kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n Derdine \u00c7are De\u011fil."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) ciddi bir kriz i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu, bundan kolay bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m herkesin \u00fczerinde anla\u015fabilece\u011fi noktalar. Ama sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda pek ilerleme sa\u011flanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ortada. Bir sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zebilmek i\u00e7in temel soruyu do\u011fru ortaya koyman\u0131n yar\u0131 yolu almak oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenir. AB\u2019nin bu noktaya, ge\u00e7 de olsa, geldi\u011fini kabul edebiliriz. \u0130kinci olarak sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zme niyetinin olmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu noktada durum a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fil. S\u00f6zl\u00fc niyetin uygulamaya yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ku\u015fkulu. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc nokta ise \u201cHer \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn bir bedeli vard\u0131r, bu \u00f6denmeden \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm sa\u011flanamaz\u201d bi\u00e7iminde \u00f6zetlenebilir. AB\u2019de bu konuda a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k var. Ama olumsuz y\u00f6nde. Kimse \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn bedelini \u00f6demek istemiyor. \u00d6zetle, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 siyasal d\u00fczeyde t\u0131kan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3665635597\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Ya\u015famsal sorun: \u0130talya\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Somut bir \u00f6rne\u011fe bakal\u0131m. AB\u2019nin acil sorunu Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n derdine \u00e7are bulmak, ya\u015famsal \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan sorunu ise \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n durumu. AB\u2019nin olanaklar\u0131 da iki sorunla ayn\u0131 anda u\u011fra\u015fmak i\u00e7in yetersiz. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n derdine \u00e7are bulunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi s\u00f6z konusu. Bunun hem bu \u00fclkede hem de di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde do\u011frudan yans\u0131malar\u0131 olabilece\u011fi gibi, AB\u2019nin bir \u00fcyesini koruyamamas\u0131ndan do\u011fabilecek sayg\u0131nl\u0131k kayb\u0131 da olacak. Bunun telafisi kolay de\u011fil. \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n ise k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde \u2018finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 sorunu pek yok. Ama borcunun b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc (GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 120\u2019si dolaylar\u0131nda), \u0130talyan ekonomisinin beklenen potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc (y\u00fczde 1 dolaylar\u0131nda) hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu \u00fclke uzun d\u00f6nemde borcunu \u00f6deyememe sorunu ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya (S&amp;P bile bunu fark etti!). \u0130talya, Yunanistan gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ekonomi de\u011fil, AB\u2019nin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi.<br \/>\nAB\u2019nin GSYH\u2019si i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 12,6 (Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n sadece y\u00fczde 1,9). Yunanistan\u2019dan \u00e7ok daha yo\u011fun ve yayg\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 iktisadi ili\u015fkileri var. Bu ekonomi t\u00f6kezlerse hem AB\u2019nin hem de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ciddi yara almas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. AB ne yaps\u0131n? Elindeki olanaklar\u0131 seferber edip Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 m\u0131 kurtars\u0131n, yoksa \u0130talya\u2019ya m\u0131 destek versin? \u0130lki AB\u2019nin ya\u015famsal sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n derdine \u00e7are de\u011fil. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 b\u0131rakmak ise AB\u2019nin sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zedeleyece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130talya\u2019ya verilecek deste\u011fin etkinli\u011fini azaltabilir, hatta i\u015fe yaramaz hale getirebilir. Geriye iki se\u00e7enek kal\u0131yor. AB\u2019nin kuzey \u00fclkeleri (Almanya ve kom\u015fular\u0131) vatanda\u015flar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bu \u00fclkelere yap\u0131labilecek mali deste\u011fi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 talep etmek. Bu yolun \u00e7\u0131kmaz sokak oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu \u00fclkelerin vatanda\u015flar\u0131 bu bedeli \u00f6demeye raz\u0131 de\u011fil. Geriye Yunanistan ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n daha fazla bedel \u00f6demeyi kabul etmeleri kal\u0131yor. Yunanistan i\u00e7in bu yol kapal\u0131. \u0130talya\u2019da ise durum farkl\u0131. \u0130talya\u2019da al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemleri daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak ve \u00f6d\u00fcns\u00fcz uygulamak yoluyla sonu\u00e7 elde edilebilir. Ama \u0130talyan h\u00fck\u00fcmetini ve siyasal ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 bilenler, bunun yap\u0131labilece\u011fine hi\u00e7 inanm\u0131yorlar. \u0130talya i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ciddi bir sayg\u0131nl\u0131k sorunu var. Bu sayg\u0131nl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatman\u0131n tek yolu, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak bir mekanizma kurmak. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n, AB\u2019nin kurumsal yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek istemesinin arkas\u0131nda yatan gerek\u00e7e bu. \u00dcye \u00fclkelerin maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenme a\u015famas\u0131nda AB\u2019nin s\u00f6z hakk\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak. Dikkat edilirse bu mekanizma \u201c\u0130talya\u2019ya destek verilirse bu ahlaki zarar sorunu yarat\u0131r, \u0130spanya da destek ister\u201d bi\u00e7imindeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ama bir sorun var. AB b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fczenlemeyi kabul eder mi ya da ka\u00e7 \u2018on y\u0131lda\u2019 eder? Arada ge\u00e7en s\u00fcrede bu sayg\u0131nl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kim giderebilir? Akla IMF geliyor. San\u0131r\u0131m, 2009\u2019da G-20 giri\u015fimi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu se\u00e7ene\u011fi AB duymak bile istemiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunun da siyasal bedeli var. Ba\u015fa d\u00f6nd\u00fck&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; background-color: #ffffff;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) ciddi bir kriz i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu, bundan kolay bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m herkesin \u00fczerinde anla\u015fabilece\u011fi noktalar. Ama sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda pek ilerleme&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":1032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5365"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5365\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}