{"id":5354,"date":"2011-09-20T18:20:23","date_gmt":"2011-09-20T15:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5354"},"modified":"2011-09-20T18:20:23","modified_gmt":"2011-09-20T15:20:23","slug":"imf-kuresel-buyume-tahminini-dusurdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imf-kuresel-buyume-tahminini-dusurdu\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF K\u00fcresel B\u00fcy\u00fcme Tahminini D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu IMF, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1389417143\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu IMF, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini indirdi ve e\u011fer Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizini \u00e7\u00f6zmede ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa ya da ABD&#8217;li politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar mali planla ilgili a\u00e7maza girerlerse olu\u015facak sert tepkilerle ilgili \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>IMF, haziran ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2011 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.3 ve 2012 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.5 tahmin ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4 geni\u015fleyece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;nin 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ise haziran ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 2.5&#8217;ten y\u00fczde 1.5&#8217;e \u00e7ekildi.IMF&#8217;nin raporunda, k\u00fcresel ekonominin tehlikeli yeni bir safhada oldu\u011fu belirtildi. B\u00f6ylece IMF, ABD&#8217;nin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1 ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,9 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>IMF, Avro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2&#8217;den y\u00fczde 1,6&#8217;ya, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 1,7&#8217;den y\u00fczde 1,1&#8217;e indirdi.<\/p>\n<p>IMF, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8220;D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc&#8221; raporunda &#8220;K\u00fcresel hareketlilik zay\u0131flayarak daha de\u011fi\u015fken hale geldi. G\u00fcven son zamanlarda keskin bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler de gittik\u00e7e art\u0131yor.&#8221; diyerek Avrupa&#8217;da liderlerin ulusal politikalar\u0131 ve euroya olan g\u00fcveni korumak i\u00e7in bedeli ne olursa olsun taahh\u00fctleri yerine getirmeleri gerekti\u011fini vurgularken ABD&#8217;deki derin politik b\u00f6l\u00fcnmelerin de ABD politikas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirsiz hale getirdi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>-GEL\u0130\u015eM\u0130\u015e EKONOM\u0130LER-\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,2 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1,6&#8217;ya ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,6 olan tahminini de y\u00fczde 1,9&#8217;a indiren IMF, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,2&#8217;den y\u00fczde 2,7&#8217;ye ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2&#8217;den y\u00fczde 1,3&#8217;e \u00e7ekti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3264875473\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Rapora g\u00f6re, Fransa bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,7 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Haziran ay\u0131nda Fransa i\u00e7in bu rakamlar 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,9&#8217;du.<\/p>\n<p>Japonya&#8217;n\u0131n bu y\u0131l daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini tahmin eden IMF, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda \u00fclke ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,5 daralaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulundu. Japonya&#8217;n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 2,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Haziran ay\u0131ndaki raporda, Japonya&#8217;n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin edilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>-GEL\u0130\u015eMEKTE OLAN \u00dcLKELER-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Raporda, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6,4 ve gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 6,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haziran ay\u0131ndaki raporda bu rakamlar s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6,6 ve y\u00fczde 6,4 olarak verilmi\u015fti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-638487656\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>IMF&#8217;ye g\u00f6re, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi \u00c7in&#8217;in bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9,5 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Fon, bir \u00f6nceki raporunda \u00c7in ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9,6 ve gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nce bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 8,2 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 7,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen Hindistan ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 7,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 7,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>IMF&#8217;ye g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l ABD ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 ortalama 103,20 dolar ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 100 dolar olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>-T\u00dcRK\u0130YE 2011&#8217;DE Y\u00dcZDE 6,6 B\u00dcY\u00dcYECEK-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Rapora g\u00f6re, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8,9 artan T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n (GSYH), bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6,6 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.<\/p>\n<p>IMF&#8217;nin Nisan ay\u0131ndaki &#8221;K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu&#8221;nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,6, 2012&#8217;de de y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ortalama 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8,6 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen raporda, bu y\u0131l t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6,9 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi. Nisan ay\u0131ndaki raporda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f tahmini 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5,7 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6,0 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Rapora g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler dengesinin GSYH&#8217;ya oran\u0131 y\u00fczde -6,6 iken, bu oran\u0131n 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde -10,3&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ve gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde -7,4&#8217;e gerileyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Nisan ay\u0131nda bu oranlar 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde -8, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde -8,2 olarak tahmin ediliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 11,9 olan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 10,5 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 10,7 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha \u00f6nceki raporda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda 11,4 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 11 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>IMF&#8217;nin &#8221;D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu&#8221;nda, k\u00fcresel ekonomik toparlanmadaki belirsizli\u011fin Nisan ay\u0131na g\u00f6re daha da artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilerek, &#8221;k\u00fcresel faaliyetlerin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha istikrars\u0131z bir hal ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fcvenin son zamanlarda h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na&#8221; dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n<p>Japonya&#8217;n\u0131n bu y\u0131l deprem ve tsunami felaketiyle sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, baz\u0131 petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerde halk ayaklanmalar\u0131 meydana geldi\u011fi, ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi kaydedilen raporda, Avro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin \u00f6nemli finansal sorunlarla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi ve k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan zarar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler i\u00e7in zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn devam etti\u011fi ifade edilen raporda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisine ra\u011fmen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn yeniden daha belirsiz hale geldi\u011fine i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n<p>Avro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde krizin politikac\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulanan raporda, Avrupal\u0131 siyaset\u00e7ilerin, 21 Temmuz&#8217;da AB zirvesinde al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 h\u0131zla uygulamas\u0131 ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (ECB), piyasalara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi tavsiyesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>Liderlerin, ulusal politikalara ve avroya g\u00fcveni korumak i\u00e7in verdikleri taahh\u00fctleri uygulamas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lan raporda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler s\u00fcrerse ECB&#8217;nin azalan enflasyonist bask\u0131lar ile artan finansal bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne alarak g\u00f6sterge faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi \u00f6nerisinde bulunuldu.<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;Avrupa&#8217;da baz\u0131 bankalar\u0131n, \u00f6zel ya da kamu kaynakl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere ek sermaye deste\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu&#8221; ifade edilen raporda, bankalar\u0131n sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncelikli olarak \u00f6zel kesim arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yapmas\u0131, bu olmazsa bankalar\u0131n sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kamu sermayesi ya da Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonu (EFSF) kullan\u0131larak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi ya da yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 veya kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>ABD ekonomisinin mali konsolidasyon konusundaki siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmaz, zay\u0131f konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131, hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n tasarruf oranlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ya da finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesinden daha fazla etkilenebilece\u011fine i\u015faret edilen raporda, acele yap\u0131lacak mali kesintilerin, borcun daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir seviyelere \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli uzun vadeli reformlar yap\u0131lmazsa ekonominin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuldu.<\/p>\n<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Fed) artan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne alarak al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k destekleri uygulamaya koymaya haz\u0131r olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtilen raporda, ABD&#8217;nin kamu borcunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir seviyeye getirmek i\u00e7in orta vadeli mali konsolidasyon plan\u0131 haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek politikalar\u0131 uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli \u00f6ncelikleri olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;nin istihdam alan\u0131nda \u00e7ok yava\u015f toparlanmayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 da yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Japonya&#8217;da ise h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kamu borcunun \u00fcstesinden gelmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nlemler almas\u0131, deprem ve tsunaminin vurdu\u011fu b\u00f6lgeleri yeniden in\u015fa etmesi ve geli\u015ftirmesi gerekti\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>-K\u00dcRESEL EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 ETK\u0130LEYEN OLUMSUZLUKLAR-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel ekonominin iki olumsuz geli\u015fmeden etkilendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan IMF, bu olumsuz geli\u015fmelerden ilkinin geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerdeki toparlanman\u0131n y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131, ikincisinin ise \u00f6zellikle A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana mali ve finansal belirsizliklerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc politikalar\u0131n, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn d\u00fczeltilmesi ve risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in acilen gerekli oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, mali konsolidasyon ve stok d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sona ermesi nedeniyle ekonomide yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<p>Japonya&#8217;da 11 Mart&#8217;ta meydana gelen deprem ve tusunami felaketi gibi tek seferlik olaylar\u0131n ekonomideki daha fazla yava\u015flamaya mant\u0131kl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar getirdi\u011fi belirtilen raporda, &#8221;g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, dengeli ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme&#8221; mesaj\u0131 verildi.<\/p>\n<p>Mali te\u015fviklerden \u00f6zel talebe de\u011fi\u015fime ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011fu, mali konsolidasyonun (Japonya d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomide uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak \u00f6zel talebin yerini almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilen raporda, s\u0131k\u0131 banka kredileri ve hanehalklar\u0131 t\u00fcketimleri \u00fczerindeki y\u00fcksek bask\u0131lar\u0131n toparlanma \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fren etkisi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel ekonomideki ikinci olumsuz geli\u015fmenin mali ve finansal belirsizliklerdeki art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edilen raporda, piyasalar\u0131n, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin kamu borcunu istikrara kavu\u015fturma kabiliyeti konusunda daha da \u015f\u00fcpheci hale geldi\u011fi, bu endi\u015felerin Avrupa&#8217;daki birka\u00e7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00fclkeyle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131, bazen ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in daha fazla Avrupa \u00fclkesine ve Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Japonya ve ABD&#8217;ye uzand\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<p>Bor\u00e7larla ilgili endi\u015felerin \u00f6zellikle Avrupa olmak \u00fczere bankalar\u0131n elindeki bor\u00e7lanma ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131yla ilgili kayg\u0131lara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131n bankalar\u0131n y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma oranlar\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden finansal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131smen durmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilen raporda, uluslararas\u0131 borsalar\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi, bunun gelecek aylarda harcamalar \u00fczerinde ters etki yarataca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011finin sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcklere ve piyasalar\u0131n mali istikrar konusunda daha fazla kayg\u0131lanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 vurgulanan raporda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ayn\u0131 zamanda bankalar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ve geri d\u00f6nmeyen kredilere sebep olaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>-GEL\u0130\u015eMEKTE OLAN \u00dcLKELER-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin bu olumsuz geli\u015fmelerden b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda etkilenmedi\u011fi vurgulanan raporda, bu ekonomilerin dalgal\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015fmak zorunda kald\u0131klar\u0131, ancak genel olarak s\u00fcrekli y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00fclkelerden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomisinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir\u00e7o\u011fu i\u00e7in ise g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da belirsiz hale geldi\u011fi bildirilen raporda, risk senaryolar\u0131na g\u00f6re geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin ihracattaki ko\u015fullardan ve dalgal\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan olumsuz etkilenebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihracat ve belki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in sorun yaratabilece\u011fi belirtilen raporda, emtia fiyatlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ticaret ve sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki muhtemel ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fcksek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc politik icraat\u0131n temel oldu\u011fu, bunun \u00fc\u00e7 ana unsura dayanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ifade edilen raporda, ilk unsurun mali politika oldu\u011fu, ekonomideki toparlanmaya zarar vermemesi i\u00e7in mali konsolidasyonun \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 uygulanmamas\u0131 ya da g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi olumsuz etkilememesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok yava\u015f uygulanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Mali konsolidasyonun h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkelerin kendi ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131, ancak g\u00fcvenilir orta vadeli konsolidasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu ifade edilen raporda, mali politikan\u0131n \u00f6tesinde i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131racak \u00f6nlemlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, banka kredilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm programlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funun alt\u0131 \u00e7izildi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci unsurun mali \u00f6nlemler oldu\u011fu, mali belirsizli\u011fin bir gecede ortadan kalkmayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilen raporda, en iyimser tahminler alt\u0131nda bile geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bir s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131, bu s\u00fcre boyunca bankalar\u0131n, sadece banka kredilerinin ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme temelinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda geri besleme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc riskini azaltarak daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc unsurun d\u0131\u015f dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 oldu\u011fu bildirilen raporda, ABD ve krizin etkiledi\u011fi ekonomilerin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131ndan net ihracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere bir dizi Asya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck cari fazlas\u0131 bulundu\u011fu ve bu \u00fclkelerin d\u0131\u015f ve i\u00e7 talebi yeniden dengelemesi planlar\u0131 belirledikleri, bu planlar\u0131n bir gecede uygulanamayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilen raporda, ancak bu \u00fclkelerin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funda h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde bu planlar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmesi gerekti\u011fi, sadece k\u00fcresel dengenin yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde ve dolayl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin umut edilebilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<p>kaynak<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/kuresel-piyasalar\/haber\/972403-imf-kuresel-buyume-tahminini-dusurdu\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/kuresel-piyasalar\/haber\/972403-imf-kuresel-buyume-tahminini-dusurdu<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu IMF, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu IMF, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini indirdi ve e\u011fer Avrupa bor\u00e7&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5355,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5354\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}