{"id":53236,"date":"2018-02-06T09:49:29","date_gmt":"2018-02-06T06:49:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53236"},"modified":"2018-02-06T10:20:46","modified_gmt":"2018-02-06T07:20:46","slug":"black-monday-kara-pazartesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/black-monday-kara-pazartesi\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsalarda Black Monday &#8211; Kara Pazartesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>D\u00fcn ABD endekslerinde kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f vard\u0131.<\/h2>\n<p>Dow Jones %4.60, S&amp;P +4.1 ve Nasdaq %3.92 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131lar. Tabi ki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler Ekim 1987&#8217;deki kara pazartesini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Dow Jones endeksi bir g\u00fcnde %22.5 d\u00fc\u015ferken 1 haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %33 seviyelerinde olmu\u015f ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada borsalar %40-50 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle &#8220;kara pazartesi&#8221; ad\u0131 verilmi\u015fti. O g\u00fcnleri g\u00f6steren Dow Jones grafi\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r.\u00a0 Grafi\u011fin alt kadran\u0131nda 11 g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi % olarak verilmektedir. Dikkat ederseniz bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yava\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131yor (ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck %2-3 civar\u0131nda oluyor) daha sonra bir g\u00fcnde %22.5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oluyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2952088207\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-53237\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-1987.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"494\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-1987.png 494w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-1987-300x245.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte asl\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn vehameti \u00e7ok net g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fe bakarsan\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ne kadar sert oldu\u011fu daha geni\u015f bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha net g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6nceki 2 y\u0131ldaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 sadece 6 g\u00fcnde kaybedilmi\u015fti. Dow endeksinin, d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc seviyeye kadar yeniden y\u00fckselmesi 2 y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcre ald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-53238\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-1987-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"494\" height=\"408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-1987-2.png 494w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-1987-2-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m borsa yaz\u0131lar\u0131nda &#8220;parti devam ediyor ama ABD endekslerinden korkuyorum. O cephede \u00e7ok sert sat\u0131\u015flar gelebilir&#8221; mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyordum. Gerek\u00e7e olarak da ABD endekslerinin t\u00fcm de\u011ferleme y\u00f6ntemlerine g\u00f6re tarihi en y\u00fcksek seviyelerde oldu\u011funu belirtiyordum. Bu nedenle de pozisyon alm\u0131\u015f olsan\u0131z bile, ne kadar zarara katlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6nceden belirlemeniz gerekti\u011fi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu\u011funda stop yapman\u0131z gerekti\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdim. Zaten art\u0131k bunu ezberlediniz. Stop yoksa kazan\u00e7 yoktur. 1987&#8217;deki kara pazartesi sonras\u0131nda akademik d\u00fcnyada bu konuda \u00e7ok fazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gerektirecek hi\u00e7 bir haber yoktu. Genelde a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda o s\u0131ralarda yeni kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanan algoritmik modellerin toptan sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirenler olsa da, o g\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn gerek\u00e7elerini net bir \u015fekilde ortaya koyan sonu\u00e7 yoktu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131nda, analistlerin ve uzmanlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda Yellen, son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu veya y\u00fckselen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri sebep g\u00f6sterilse de, d\u00fcn 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizler de sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda piyasalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 fiyat hareketlerini takip eder. En \u00f6nemli sebep, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pahal\u0131 olan seviyelerdi ve bir \u015fekilde sat\u0131\u015f gelecekti. Bu da d\u00fcn oldu. Ama \u00f6nemli olan \u015fey \u015fu ana kadar ne oldu\u011fu de\u011fil, bundan sonra ne olaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Fakat bu konuya ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce, d\u00fcn ABD endekslerinde ne oldu\u011funa grafiksel olarak bakal\u0131m. \u00dcstteki grafik Dow Jones, alttaki grafik ise S&amp;P 500 endeksinde d\u00fcn olu\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-53239\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"496\" height=\"407\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-2018.png 496w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/DOW-2018-300x246.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 496px) 100vw, 496px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-53240\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/SPX-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/SPX-2018.png 500w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/SPX-2018-300x247.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Her iki grafikte de son 2 ay i\u00e7indeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin tamam\u0131n\u0131n son 2 g\u00fcnde geri verildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yukar\u0131da 1987 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki kara pazartesi grafiklerine g\u00f6re bu son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler daha az olsa da, acaba yine 1987&#8217;deki gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler olur mu sorusu akla geliyor. Bence 1987&#8217;deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe benzer \u015fekilde bir g\u00fcnde %20 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmaz. Ama yukar\u0131daki grafikler, ABD&#8217;de art\u0131k borsa balonunun patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n resmidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ABD Borsalar\u0131 D\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc Ya Di\u011fer Borsalar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu saba itibariyle Asya cephesinde de sat\u0131\u015flar var. En fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Japon Nikkei %4.75 ile yapm\u0131\u015f durumda. Di\u011fer borsalardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f miktar\u0131 da ortalama %2.5-3 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Bizim borsada da a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta %2-3 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olabilir. Ama ka\u011f\u0131t baz\u0131nda %5-7 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r. Bu da borsan\u0131n izafiyet teorisidir. E\u011fer %10&#8217;luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 3-4 aya yay\u0131l\u0131rsa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 rahats\u0131z etmez ama 2 g\u00fcnde olursa, panik yarat\u0131r. Bu sabah b\u00fct\u00fcn borsa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 istim \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Ama a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta hareket etmeyin. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131nda tepkiler geliyor. Endeksin 114 bin ile 115 bin aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz.\u00a0 120 bin seviyesi art\u0131k \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 oldu. 114-115 bin aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 durumunda ilk diren\u00e7 seviyesi 116.000-116.500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f beklemiyorum. Tehlikeli olan \u015fey ise endeksin sadece bin puan bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p yukar\u0131 hareket yapmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr bir durumda kar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya hisse ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olsa bile sat\u0131p en az 1-2 hafta beklemekte fayda vard\u0131r.\u00a0 E\u011fer endeks 114 bin veya bunun alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrse, satmadan beklemek daha anlaml\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu durumda 115 bin civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Seans a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra saat 10:30&#8217;da ve daha sonra g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde seans i\u00e7i yorum verece\u011fim&#8230; Bu arada twitter&#8217;dan da gerekirse mesaj g\u00f6nderece\u011fim.\u00a0 A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda ilk 15 dakika bir \u015fey yapmadan beklemek en uygun hareket tarz\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2559124000\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Paran\u0131z sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bozmas\u0131n. (6 \u015eubat 2018 &#8211; 09:48)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ABD endekslerinde kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f vard\u0131. Dow Jones %4.60, S&amp;P +4.1 ve Nasdaq %3.92 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131lar. Tabi ki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler Ekim 1987&#8217;deki kara&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-53236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53236\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}