{"id":53175,"date":"2018-01-30T21:34:09","date_gmt":"2018-01-30T18:34:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53175"},"modified":"2018-01-31T13:35:04","modified_gmt":"2018-01-31T10:35:04","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-piyasa-enflasyonu-merkez-bankasindan-daha-iyi-biliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-piyasa-enflasyonu-merkez-bankasindan-daha-iyi-biliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; Piyasa Enflasyonu Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan Daha \u0130yi Biliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131llard\u0131r enflasyon hedefi koyuyor, bununla yetinmiyor y\u0131lda birka\u00e7 kez y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahmini yap\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta ne hedef tutuyor ne de tahmin.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3124945682\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda 2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana hedefler, tahminler ve y\u0131lsonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri yer al\u0131yor. Tablonun 7 numaral\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131 o y\u0131lsonunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 (T\u00dcFE) g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<table style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>2013<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>2014<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>2015<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>2017<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>2018<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">1<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\">TCMB Hedefi<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,00<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,00<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,00<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,00<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,00<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">2<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\">Sapma (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-32,43<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-38,80<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-43,25<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-41,38<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-58,05<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">3<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\">TCMB Tahmini<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,30<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">6,60<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">5,50<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">7,50<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">8,00<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">7,90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">4<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\">Sapma (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-28,38<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-19,22<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-37,57<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-12,08<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-32,89<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">5<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\">Beklenti Anketi<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">6,32<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">7,44<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">6,82<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">8,19<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">8,48<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">9,55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">6<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\">Sapma (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-14,59<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-8,94<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-22,59<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-3,99<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\">-28,86<\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"4%\">7<\/td>\n<td width=\"23%\"><strong>Y\u0131lsonu Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>7,4<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>8,17<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>8,81<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>8,53<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><strong>11,92<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"11%\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tablonun 1 numaral\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon hedeflerini g\u00f6steriyor. 2 numaral\u0131 s\u0131ra Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon hedefinin y\u0131lsonunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyondan y\u00fczde ka\u00e7 oran\u0131nda sapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fclen o ki Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hedefleri y\u0131lsonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerinden \u00e7ok ciddi oranda uzak kalan hedefler. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu hedefi hi\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor ve her y\u0131l \u0131srarla y\u00fczde 5 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. \u00a0Tablonun 3 numaral\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n o y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon raporunda o y\u0131lsonuna ili\u015fkin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon tahminleri bulunuyor. 4 numaral\u0131 s\u0131rada ise bu tahminlerin y\u0131lsonunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyon oranlar\u0131ndan y\u00fczde ka\u00e7 oran\u0131nda sapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilgili y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131lsonu tahminlerinin de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u0131lsonu enflasyonundan ciddi oranda sapma g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi izlenebiliyor. 5 numaral\u0131 s\u0131ra Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilgili y\u0131llar\u0131n Ocak aylar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Beklenti Anketinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ortalama y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentilerini g\u00f6steriyor. (Beklenti Anketi, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nca her ay yap\u0131lan ve finansal ve reel sekt\u00f6rde karar al\u0131c\u0131 ve uzman ki\u015filerin \u00e7e\u015fitli makroekonomik de\u011fi\u015fkenlere ili\u015fkin beklentilerinin izlenmesi amac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcden bir ankettir. Mesela Ocak 2018\u2019deki anketi reel sekt\u00f6r kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan 9, finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan 55 ve \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyeleri, gazeteciler gibi profesyonellerden 5 olmak \u00fczere toplam 69 ki\u015fi yan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.) 6 numaral\u0131 s\u0131rada da beklenti anketinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tahminlerin y\u0131lsonu enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinden olan y\u00fczde sapma oranlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2018\/01\/piyasa-enflasyonu-merkez-bankasndan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mahfi E\u011filmez&#8217;in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131s\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131llard\u0131r enflasyon hedefi koyuyor, bununla yetinmiyor y\u0131lda birka\u00e7 kez y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahmini yap\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta ne hedef tutuyor ne de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53175\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}