{"id":53099,"date":"2018-01-23T19:18:40","date_gmt":"2018-01-23T16:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53099"},"modified":"2018-01-23T19:18:40","modified_gmt":"2018-01-23T16:18:40","slug":"cetin-unsalan-iyimserlik-celiskisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-iyimserlik-celiskisi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130yimserlik \u00e7eli\u015fkisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Davos\u2019un ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte iyimserlik pompalamas\u0131 da devreye girdi. IMF k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131; PWC ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, bizimkiler endi\u015fe i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, d\u00fcnyadaki CEO\u2019lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda son derece iyimser oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1124958739\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Parasal geni\u015flemenin s\u00fcrece\u011fi masal\u0131 devreye sokuldu. AB\u2019nin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD\u2019nin verilerinin iyi geldi\u011fi, \u00c7in\u2019in hamle i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu duyuruldu. Nas\u0131lsa insanlar ba\u015fl\u0131k ve spot okuyorlar. Devam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekleri yazsan\u0131z da kimse oray\u0131 okumuyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu g\u00fcvenle i\u00e7te ve d\u0131\u015fta iyimserlik f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 olu\u015fturuluyor. Tekrarl\u0131yorum: Ekonomide iyimserlik ya da k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik diye bir \u015fey yoktur. Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik vard\u0131r. Bu bir finans piyasalar\u0131 jargonudur ve yeni kurbanlar yaratman\u0131n arac\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc tek hedef portf\u00f6ydeki m\u00fc\u015fterinin, g\u00fcn sonunda kazan\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r. Hi\u00e7 kimse kusura bakmas\u0131n ama durum hi\u00e7 de ho\u015f de\u011fil. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u011f\u0131r hasta. Sadece herkesin fatura \u00fczerine kalmas\u0131n ya da bu filmden zararla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n u\u011fra\u015f\u0131s\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclkelerin halklar\u0131 batm\u0131\u015f, \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, kimsenin umurunda de\u011fil. Daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, y\u0131llarca bunun siyasi nemas\u0131n\u0131 toplam\u0131\u015f siyaset\u00e7iler de \u2018kral \u00e7\u0131plak\u2019 diyemiyor. Zira bunu dedi\u011finiz anda, ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki tablonun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir palavradan, bor\u00e7lanmadan ve t\u00fcketim ekonomisi \u00fczerinden rant dev\u015firmeden ibaret oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n<p>Reel sekt\u00f6r boyutuna bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda zaten i\u015f kontrolden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Ya ger\u00e7ekleri kimse dinlemiyor ya da ger\u00e7e\u011fin i\u00e7inde finansal iyimserlik yaratabilecek c\u00fcmleler c\u0131mb\u0131zlan\u0131yor. En g\u00fczel \u00f6rne\u011fi PWC\u2019nin CEO\u2019lar ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticilerin anketindeki endi\u015feleri ihtiyatl\u0131 iyimserlik diye satan bu rapor, endi\u015feye neden olan olaylar\u0131n analizini es ge\u00e7iyor. \u00dcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticilerin alg\u0131lad\u0131klar\u0131 tehlikelere bak\u0131n:<\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fczde 40 jeopolitik belirsizlik; y\u00fczde 40 siber tehditler; y\u00fczde 41 ter\u00f6rizm&#8230; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki CEO\u2019larda oranlar daha dramatik: Y\u00fczde 64 jeopolitik belirsizlikler; y\u00fczde 67 d\u00f6viz kurunda dalgalanma ve y\u00fczde 67 ter\u00f6rizm.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2130839912\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle bu foto\u011fraftan nas\u0131l iyimserlik yaratt\u0131lar; \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k i\u00e7indeyim. Ama as\u0131l konu bu de\u011fil. Ba\u015fl\u0131klara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ger\u00e7ek problemin ekonomik faaliyet konusunda iplerin reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn elinden ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 realitesidir.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131lan endi\u015felerin hangisi faaliyet konusuyla ilgili ya da i\u015fletme yap\u0131lar\u0131yla alakal\u0131 bir durum? Hangisi y\u00f6netilebilir? Hangisine m\u00fcdahale edilebilir? Mesela i\u015fletmelerdeki verimlilik sorun olsayd\u0131; risk y\u00f6netimi yapard\u0131n\u0131z. Bu konular\u0131n hi\u00e7birinde d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fcretim ekonomisinin yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir \u015fey yok.<\/p>\n<p>Sorun sadece b\u00fcy\u00fcklerde de\u011fil. Soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda da finansmandan sat\u0131\u015f hacmine, kazan\u00e7tan tahsilata kadar her alanda sorun ya\u015fayan reel sekt\u00f6r de dolar\u0131 ya da Afrin\u2019i konu\u015fuyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k geli\u015fmeler kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f vaziyette.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya ile kavgal\u0131 oldu\u011fumuz d\u00f6nemde, bir deri firmas\u0131n\u0131n yetkilisi bana \u015funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti: \u201cFinansmandan pazarlamaya, m\u00fc\u015fteri ili\u015fkilerinden \u00fcretime kadar her \u015feyimi organize ettim. Ama iki \u00fclke kavga etti ve batma noktas\u0131na geldim. S\u00f6yler misiniz bu durumda hatam nerede?\u201d<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3498723115\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ekten de \u015fu foto\u011fraf i\u00e7erisinde bir hatas\u0131 yok. D\u00fcnyadaki siyaset, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc savunmas\u0131z b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Ortadaki risklerin hi\u00e7 biri, bir CEO\u2019nun ya da KOB\u0130\u2019nin, bakkal Ahmet Amca ya da Terzi Ay\u015fe Teyze\u2019nin y\u00f6netebilece\u011fi hususlar de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>O zaman tekrar ba\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fcp soruyorum. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn risk olarak alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konular\u0131n sebebi de, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc de tamamen kendi kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ba\u015fl\u0131klardan olu\u015fuyorsa bu neyin iyimserli\u011fi?<\/p>\n<p>Onun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 da Davos\u2019ta Ekonomist Robert Shiller veriyor: Piyasalarda hi\u00e7bir tetikleyici gerek\u00e7e olmadan ani bir d\u00fczeltme olabilir. D\u00fczeltme dedikleri finans\u00e7\u0131 dilinde do\u011fal noktaya gelmek, vatanda\u015f dilinde \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f. Do\u011fru mu? Y\u00fcksek ihtimalle&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnya ekonomisi bu haliyle s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fil. Bir yalan makinesi gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bence Shiller\u2019e kulak verin. Y\u0131llard\u0131r Ekonomist U\u011fur Civelek, yay\u0131nlar\u0131m\u0131zda ya da kendisi k\u00f6\u015fesinde bu s\u00fcreci ad\u0131m ad\u0131m anlatt\u0131. Dilinden yerli ve milli d\u00fc\u015fmeyip, kendi insan\u0131na inanmaktan imtina edenlere duyurulur. Bak\u0131n d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticiler ve Shiller de ayn\u0131 \u015feyi s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Belki art\u0131k inan\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Davos\u2019un ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte iyimserlik pompalamas\u0131 da devreye girdi. IMF k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131; PWC ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, bizimkiler endi\u015fe i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, d\u00fcnyadaki CEO\u2019lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda son&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-53099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53099\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}