{"id":53034,"date":"2018-01-18T02:15:41","date_gmt":"2018-01-17T23:15:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=53034"},"modified":"2018-01-18T02:15:41","modified_gmt":"2018-01-17T23:15:41","slug":"cetin-unsalan-tehlikenin-farkinda-misiniz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-tehlikenin-farkinda-misiniz\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Tehlikenin fark\u0131nda m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye kendi i\u00e7 g\u00fcndeminde me\u015fgulken, d\u00fcnyada ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu geli\u015fmelerin \u015f\u00fcphesiz siyasi yanlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u0131l\u0131n ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcrecin ekonomik ger\u00e7eklerini etkileyece\u011fi de a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-268638586\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu foto\u011fraf da bizim gibi nakit paraya ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u00fclkeleri yak\u0131ndan ilgilendirecek ve risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltecektir. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n boyutu bir yana, her \u015feyden \u00f6nce bu geli\u015fmeler do\u011fru ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve y\u00f6netilmesi gereken bir \u00f6nem ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlardan birincisi d\u00fcnyada s\u00f6ylentinin aksine reel sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda artan iktisadi daralman\u0131n ve korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tersine, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eayet talep bu seyirde devam eder, ama maliyetler bu nedenle tetiklenirse T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki olas\u0131 \u00e7ift daralma ve enfasyon y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcne gelebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Yine \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fl\u0131k D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu\u2019nun Davos \u00f6ncesi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 K\u00fcresel Risk Raporu 2018\u2019in anlatt\u0131klar\u0131\u2026 Merak edenler detaylar\u0131n\u0131 bulabilir, ama \u00f6zetle anlamam\u0131z gereken b\u00fcy\u00fck devletler aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel olarak nitelendirilen askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar dahil, keskinle\u015fecek siyasi ve ekonomik \u00e7eki\u015fmeler riskinin artma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun zaten pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00fcnyada ekonomik risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltece\u011fi ve maliyetlerin artmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bu da yine biz ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere nakit paraya ve reel sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda da ihracata ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u00fclkelerin i\u015finin zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca bu ortam adet baz\u0131nda y\u00fckseltseniz bile ihracattan olan kazanc\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine de i\u015faret eden \u00f6nemli bir bulgu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve pazar\u0131n daha da kas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, al\u0131c\u0131 almaktan imtina edecek ya da fiyat pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na oturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nemli bir di\u011fer ba\u015fl\u0131k ise Avrupa\u2019dan geldi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi bankalarla ilgili denetimi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Avrupa Say\u0131\u015ftay\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan rapora g\u00f6re denetimin amac\u0131n\u0131, ekonomik krizleri \u00f6nlemek olu\u015fturuyor. Yani global krizin ayak sesleri o kadar y\u00fckseldi ki, \u00f6nlemler g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Bize ne\u2019 denilebilir. Fakat Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki 120 bankay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip ediyor. Yani belki gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik de\u011fil, ama ge\u00e7mi\u015fe y\u00f6nelik kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z paralar \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir risk alg\u0131s\u0131 daha belirdi. Nitekim yeni gelecek sendikasyonlarda da bunun etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1497106004\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 alt alta koydu\u011fumuzda, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve a\u00e7mazlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da dikkate alarak de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde tehlikeli bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 oldu\u011fu apa\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Peki tehlikenin fark\u0131nda m\u0131y\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc fark\u0131na var\u0131rsan\u0131z y\u00f6netirseniz, s\u00fcre\u00e7te olas\u0131 hasarlar\u0131 azaltabilirsiniz. Umursamazsan\u0131z da riskiniz artar. Sonra kimse not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcmlerinde ya da TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7 aramas\u0131n. Ama t\u00fcm bunlardan daha kolay\u0131 var: \u2018Ey d\u00fcnya\u2019 deyip i\u015fin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kars\u0131n\u0131z. Bak\u0131n bakal\u0131m, risk ba\u011f\u0131rarak ortadan kalk\u0131yor mu?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye kendi i\u00e7 g\u00fcndeminde me\u015fgulken, d\u00fcnyada ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu geli\u015fmelerin \u015f\u00fcphesiz siyasi yanlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u0131l\u0131n ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcrecin ekonomik ger\u00e7eklerini etkileyece\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-53034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53034"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53034\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}