{"id":5286,"date":"2011-09-19T12:27:55","date_gmt":"2011-09-19T09:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5286"},"modified":"2011-09-19T12:41:31","modified_gmt":"2011-09-19T09:41:31","slug":"iceride-kara-harekati-ve-guney-kibris-disarida-yunanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iceride-kara-harekati-ve-guney-kibris-disarida-yunanistan\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130\u00e7eride Kara Harek\u00e2t\u0131 ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s, D\u0131\u015far\u0131da Yunanistan"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><strong>\u0130\u00e7eride Kara Harek\u00e2t\u0131 ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s, D\u0131\u015far\u0131da Yunanistan<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<p>Raporun PDF Format\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in: \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/content\/pdf\/19%20%20Eyl%C3%BCl%202011%20Haftalik%20Bulten.pdf\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/content\/pdf\/19%20%20Eyl%C3%BCl%202011%20Haftalik%20Bulten.pdf<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1072307823\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z haftal\u0131k strateji raporumuzun ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u201cElveda Yunanistan\u201d \u015feklinde koymu\u015ftuk. Asl\u0131nda bu haftaki b\u00fcltenimize yak\u0131\u015facak en g\u00fczel ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u201cElveda Yunanistan-2\u201dolmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bu hafta T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle dikkatleri biraz da i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelere \u00e7ekmek istedik. Bu nedenle ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdik. Bu geli\u015fmelerden ilki ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyine olacak bir kara operasyonu, ikincisi ise Akdeniz\u2019de Rumlarla ya\u015fanan gerginlik. Bu iki ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalara olas\u0131 etkilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da detayl\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z fakat \u00f6ncesinde al\u0131\u015f\u0131lageldi\u011fi \u00fczere kangren haline gelen Yunanistan sorunu ve AB ve ABD\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerle ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Elveda Yunanistan \u2013 2\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Yunanistan\u2019da yolun sonuna gelindi\u011fi ve iflas\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu yorumlar\u0131 artt\u0131. Merkel ve Sarkozy g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve Euro\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ve iflas\u0131na izin verilmeyece\u011fi mesajlar\u0131yla borsalarda ba\u015flayan toparlanma, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 5 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasalara dolar likiditesi sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 haberiyle h\u0131z kazand\u0131. Fakat haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Haine Bakan\u0131 Geithner\u2019\u0131n da kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen Avrupa Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan beklenen Yunanistan ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere AB\u2019de ya\u015fanan krize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretilece\u011fi beklentileri sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131. Bununla birlikte Yunanistan kurtarma fonunun 6. dilimi olan 8 milyar dolarl\u0131k tutar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lma tarihinin de ileriye al\u0131nmas\u0131 Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n hukuken olmasa da fiilen iflas\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine geldi\u011fi yorumlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131. Ya\u015fanan bu geli\u015fmelerin hi\u00e7biri as\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fildi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaki raporumuzda bu konuda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu yorumu hat\u0131rlatmak istiyoruz. <strong>\u201cBu hafta AB taraf\u0131nda Yunanistan konusunda liderlerin son \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131n\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli ralli tarz\u0131 hareketlerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Bizler bug\u00fcnden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda olas\u0131 bu rallilerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011fil, sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\u201d<\/strong> Sonu\u00e7 olarak Yunanistan konusunda \u00e7ok radikal \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece iflas\u0131n kabul\u00fcnden ba\u015fka bir se\u00e7enek kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n da bunu fiyatlama yoluna gidece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">ABD\u2019de \u015fimdilik resesyon yok<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ba\u015fta sanayi \u00fcretimi olmak \u00fczere gelen veriler ABD\u2019nin hen\u00fcz resesyonda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma plan\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilmesi ve Sal\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi Toplant\u0131s\u0131 ard\u0131ndan at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar resesyon ihtimalini iyice azaltabilir. Bununla birlikte piyasalarda as\u0131l co\u015fkuyu yaratacak olan FED\u2019den beklenen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal gev\u015femenin bu ayki toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Fakat FED\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli tahvillerin sat\u0131larak uzun vadeli tahvillerin al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden \u201cOperation Twist\u201di ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadede olumlu alg\u0131lansa da piyasalar\u0131n as\u0131l beklentisinin parasal geni\u015fleme oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekiyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede olumlu etkileri olsa da orta ve uzun vade i\u00e7in Operation Twist\u2019in yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle parasal geni\u015flemenin tarihine ve boyutuna dair mesajlar \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 durumunda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tutanaklar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayacak olas\u0131 iyimserli\u011fin uzun soluklu olmayaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 an meselesi<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyine kapsaml\u0131 bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dar kapsaml\u0131 bir operasyonun piyasalar i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekle birlikte beklentimiz operasyonun daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Beklentilerimizin bu \u015fekilde olu\u015fmas\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck etken BDP\u2019nin meclise d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyindeki K\u00fcrt y\u00f6netimiyle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler etkili oluyor. Geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir operasyonun ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn de eylemlerini s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rma ve eylemlerinin dozunu artt\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalara da olumsuz yans\u0131malar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Operasyonlar\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n da bozuldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6neme denk gelmesi durumunda, son g\u00fcnlerde dillendirilen pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fma tabiri bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine rafa kalkabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1244689734\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ate\u015fle oynuyor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n Akdeniz\u2019de do\u011falgaz arama faaliyetlerini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert \u00f6nlemleri uygulamaya alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Gazetelere yans\u0131yan haberlere g\u00f6re G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ilk sondaj \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den bu konuda daha \u00f6nce buna m\u00fcsaade edilmeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Akdeniz\u2019de \u0130srail ile ba\u015flayan gerginlik ve ard\u0131ndan G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131 Akdeniz\u2019de s\u00f6z sahibi oldu\u011funu ve konuda daha aktif politikalar izleyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in bir s\u0131nav niteli\u011finde. H\u00fck\u00fcmet \u0130srail konusu ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131na verdi\u011fi mesajlar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda durdu\u011funu G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n bu giri\u015fimine sert bir tepki vererek g\u00f6sterebilir. Bu nedenle ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde Akdeniz\u2019de G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s kaynakl\u0131 askeri yans\u0131malar\u0131 da olabilecek bir kriz ya\u015fanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki haftaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimizin aksine artm\u0131\u015f bulunuyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>Yeni faiz indirimi yok<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bu hafta i\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fl\u0131k da Merkez Banaks\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu Toplant\u0131s\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir faiz indiriminin TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in TCMB\u2019nin bu ayki toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni bir faiz indirimi beklemiyoruz. Hatta TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak ve belki bir miktar de\u011ferlenmesini sa\u011flamak ad\u0131na yeni ad\u0131mlar at\u0131labilir ya da ileride at\u0131labilecek ad\u0131mlar hakk\u0131nda i\u015faretler verilebilir. Bu nedenle toplant\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n as\u0131l etkisinin \u0130MKB de\u011fil kurlar cephesinde olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2733890957\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kanlar:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>19 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 Pazartesi\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16:00 \u2013 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00dcyesi Gonzalez-Paramo Konu\u015fma Yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 NAHB Konut Piyasas\u0131 Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>\u00a020 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 Sal\u0131:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11:30 \u2013 \u0130spanya Tahvil \u0130hrac\u0131 Yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 AB ve Almanya Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 ZEW Anketi \u2013 Ekonomik Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:00 \u2013 TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu Kararlar\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131klayacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 Yeni Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 \u0130n\u015faat \u0130zinleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>21 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 \u00c7ar\u015famba:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11:30 \u2013 \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 Toplant\u0131 Tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131klanacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:30 \u2013 Portekiz Bono \u0130hrac\u0131 Ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 Mevcut Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21:15 \u2013 FED A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi Toplant\u0131 Kararlar\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131klanacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>22 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 Per\u015fembe:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 AB Temmuz Ay\u0131 Yeni Sanayi Sipari\u015fleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 Euro B\u00f6lgesi Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Konut Fiyat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>\u00a023 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 Cuma:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10:30 \u2013 Almanya Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 PMI \u0130malat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10:30 \u2013 Almanya Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 PMI Hizmet Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11:00 \u2013 AB Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 PMI \u0130malat &amp; Hizmet Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 23:30 \u2013 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trichet\u2019in Konu\u015fmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>24 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 Cumartesi:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Toplant\u0131lar\u0131 Ba\u015flayacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>25 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 Pazar:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 02:00 \u2013 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trichet\u2019in Konu\u015fmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">\u0130MKB 30 TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta uzunca bir s\u00fcre diren\u00e7 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6ren 68,500\/69,000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131nda olu\u015fan bo\u015flu\u011fun doldurulmas\u0131 ad\u0131na 71,800 civar\u0131na kadar olacak bir hareketi g\u00fcndeme getirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n teknik g\u00f6stergelerdeki zay\u0131flama dikkat \u00e7ekici boyutta. Bu y\u00f6nde olacak bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rsek de temkinli olunmas\u0131 ve al\u0131nacak pozisyonlarda mutlaka stop loss bulundurulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Teknik g\u00f6stergelerdeki zay\u0131flama ve olu\u015fan negatif ayk\u0131r\u0131l\u0131klar endeksin bir geri \u00e7ekilme yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Fakat bu geri \u00e7ekilmenin 71,800 test edildikten sonra m\u0131 bu seviyeler test edilmeden mi ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir sinyal alam\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle her iki senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle her iki y\u00f6nde de al\u0131nacak pozisyonlarda kar al\u0131m ve stop loss seviyelerinin ba\u015ftan belirlenmesi gerekti\u011fi kanaatindeyiz. Bizim ana senaryomuz; \u0130MKB 30\u2019da 71,800\u2019\u00fcn test edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunsa da daha yukar\u0131daki seviyelerin g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu nedenle de bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine yeni al\u0131m \u00f6nermiyoruz. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimizi de\u011fi\u015ftirecek bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fanmas\u0131 durumunda bunu g\u00fcnl\u00fck b\u00fcltenlerimizde ya da g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yazaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ek b\u00fcltenlerimizle sizlere aktaraca\u011f\u0131z. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde ise 69,000 alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131 67,500\u2019e kadar olacak h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi daha getirebilir. \u0130MKB\u2019de yeniden sat\u0131\u015f r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 yer ise 67,500 alt\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n teyit edilmesiyle ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. Bu durumda ilk olarak 62,500 civar\u0131na kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme daha ya\u015fanabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">USD\/TL TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Dolar\/TL kurunda bir s\u00fcredir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n frenini, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde ise piyasa deste\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu nedenle kurda 1,80 \u00fczerinde bir hareket olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde de son bir haftad\u0131r 1,75\u2019in alt\u0131na sark\u0131lamad\u0131. Yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 kurda 1,80 \u00fczerinde ani hareketlerin olu\u015fmas\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin kredisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi i\u00e7in TCMB\u2019nin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde m\u00fcdahalesinin sertle\u015ferek devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle global \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ya da yerel bazda TCMB\u2019nin duru\u015funu da de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlar ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te 1,80\u2019in psikolojik diren\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fakat ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi 1,80 \u00fczerinde ardarda ya\u015fanacak bir ka\u00e7 kapan\u0131\u015f durumunda 1,87 hedefli k\u0131sa vadeli yeni al\u0131m yap\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise en \u00f6nemli destek 1,76\u2019da. Bu hafta bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklememekle birlikte olas\u0131 bir gev\u015femede bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda olacak kapan\u0131\u015flar 1,70\u2019e kadar yeni bir geri \u00e7ekilme yaratabilir. Genel olarak hareketin ise 1,75-1,81 band\u0131nda devam etmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/>\n<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nblocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u00e7eride Kara Harek\u00e2t\u0131 ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s, D\u0131\u015far\u0131da Yunanistan Raporun PDF Format\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in: \u00a0http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/content\/pdf\/19%20%20Eyl%C3%BCl%202011%20Haftalik%20Bulten.pdf Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z haftal\u0131k strateji raporumuzun ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u201cElveda Yunanistan\u201d \u015feklinde koymu\u015ftuk. Asl\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5286\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}