{"id":52806,"date":"2018-01-04T21:02:36","date_gmt":"2018-01-04T18:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=52806"},"modified":"2018-01-07T01:02:28","modified_gmt":"2018-01-06T22:02:28","slug":"cetin-unsalan-petrol-fiyatinin-iki-yuzu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-petrol-fiyatinin-iki-yuzu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n iki y\u00fcz\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi anlam\u0131nda farkl\u0131 noktalara bakarken, sessiz sedas\u0131z y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 haber olmaktan \u00f6te g\u00fcndeme gelmiyor. Oysa petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2015\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez 68 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n hem uyar\u0131 anlam\u0131nda, hem de risk y\u00f6netimi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 var.<\/h2>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle bir hat\u0131rlatma yapal\u0131m. D\u00fcnyada petrol fiyatlar\u0131 2008\u2019de 140 dolar seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha sonra s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde Ukrayna ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, gelece\u011fin rekabeti ad\u0131na Rusya\u2019y\u0131 k\u00f6\u015fe s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bat\u0131 buradan bask\u0131 yapmay\u0131 denedi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1063092391\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nitekim petrol fiyatlar\u0131 40 dolarlar seviyesine kadar geriledi. Bu elbette Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gelirlerinde \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Ama tek etkilenen olmad\u0131. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere herkesin gelirlerine yans\u0131yan olumsuz katk\u0131, d\u00fcnyada zaten beklenen iktisadi daralmay\u0131 tekikleyip, \u00f6ne ald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Hatta bu ambargoya kat\u0131lan AB \u00fcyelerinin zarar\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131nkinden de b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu. Neticede bu a\u015famaya kadar gelindi. Elbette iktisaden s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fayan bizim gibi \u00fclkeleri, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bir miktar rahatlatt\u0131. Fakat TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanan dolar y\u00fcz\u00fcnden cebe yans\u0131mad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu hat\u0131rlatmay\u0131 yapt\u0131ktan sonra ajanslara yans\u0131yan 68 dolarl\u0131k varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 iki pencereden yeniden okumak gerekir. Birinci ba\u015fl\u0131k petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n neden y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ile ilgili\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Gerek\u00e7eye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda \u0130ran\u2019daki olaylar, \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131, petrol boru hatlar\u0131ndaki kesintiler ve Aramco\u2019nun borsaya a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce g\u00fcndeme gelen beklentileri. \u00dcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeterli bir gerek\u00e7e olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Suudlar ABD korkusundan en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretici olarak, dikkate de\u011fer bi\u00e7imde bunu yapmaya yana\u015fm\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer gerek\u00e7elerin tamam\u0131 da konjonkt\u00fcrel. Dikkat edilmesi gereken ayr\u0131nt\u0131, petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bir talep nedeniyle artm\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Bu, d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131nda yeterli ivmenin kazan\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. Zira korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve daralman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 pazarda ekstra bir petrol talebi yok.<\/p>\n<p>Bu bilhassa 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 hedefleyen T\u00fcrkiye ad\u0131na ho\u015f bir haber de\u011fil. Yani petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bir y\u00fcz\u00fc bize, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin yeterince toparlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, jeopolitik veya sekt\u00f6rel nedenlerle bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu haber veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci boyut ise olay\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine olan maliyeti\u2026 40 dolarda seyrederken nefes al\u0131nd\u0131, bunun \u00f6nemli etkisinden bahsedildi; ama y\u00fczde 50\u2019den fazla art\u0131\u015f kaydeden fiyat\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 tahribat konu\u015fulmuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1889369935\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yeni bir maliyet kalemi olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131, zaten dolardan darbe yiyen enflasyon ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir \u00e7ok ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019den fazla artmas\u0131 zaten bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ama bunun kadar \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fka s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine olan y\u00fck\u00fc\u2026 Bak\u0131n 140 dolar olan 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda dolar\/TL kuru 1,22\u2026 Yani o tarihte Brent bazl\u0131 bir varil petrol\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00fck\u00fc 170 TL\u2026 Varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 120 dolara geriledi\u011fi 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda dolar \/ TL kuru 1,89; varil bazl\u0131 ekonomimize maliyeti 226 TL\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim 2015\u2019ten beri en y\u00fcksek seviye olarak nitelendirilen ortalama 68 dolar olan varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bize anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u2026 Bu seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00fcn dolar \/ TL kuru 3,75\u2026 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine varil maliyeti ise 255 TL\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek i\u00e7in hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 120 dolardan 68 dolara d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f halindeki fark\u0131na ra\u011fmen, TL baz\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00fck\u00fc varil baz\u0131nda daha fazla\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3616591594\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin \u00fczerinde durmas\u0131 gereken ve d\u00fcnya daral\u0131rken, artan fiyatlara kar\u015f\u0131 ne yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lan bir foto\u011fraf. Risk y\u00f6netimi bunu gerektirir.<\/p>\n<p>Yani petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n iki y\u00fcz\u00fc de bizim i\u00e7in alarm veriyor; ama \u00fclkenin g\u00fcndeminde s\u0131raya bile giremiyor. Bir kere, sadece bir kere de sorun kap\u0131ya gelmeden ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsak olmaz m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi anlam\u0131nda farkl\u0131 noktalara bakarken, sessiz sedas\u0131z y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 haber olmaktan \u00f6te g\u00fcndeme gelmiyor. Oysa petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2015\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez 68&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-52806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52806\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}