{"id":52703,"date":"2017-12-27T19:39:25","date_gmt":"2017-12-27T16:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=52703"},"modified":"2018-01-07T01:08:08","modified_gmt":"2018-01-06T22:08:08","slug":"cetin-unsalan-guvenmeden-uretim-mumkun-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cetin-unsalan-guvenmeden-uretim-mumkun-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; G\u00fcvenmeden \u00fcretim m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Diyelim ki gelece\u011fe dair g\u00fcven duygusu i\u00e7erisinde de\u011filsiniz yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Sadece \u00fcretici olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyin, mesela i\u015finizde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yorsan\u0131z eve yeni bir bilgisiyar al\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Bir ev, otomobil, hatta yeni bir k\u0131yafet? Esnafsan\u0131z stoktaki mal\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Yan\u0131n\u0131za bir eleman daha al\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-113269803\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Normal hesap kitap bilen biri iseniz ve yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z harcama olmazsa olmaz cinsinden de\u011filse, bu soruya hay\u0131r yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011finizi duyar gibiyim. Peki sizin gibi milyonlar varsa ve \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmekte s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yorsa, size mal satmak isteyenler daha \u00e7ok mal \u00fcretir, hatta ithalat yapar m\u0131? Nas\u0131l da yan\u0131t\u0131 bilinen sorular de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p>Fakat Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re bu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrk \u00fcreticisi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmi\u015f. Belki oransal bazda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f de\u011fil, sadece 0,9 ve zaten vardiya hesab\u0131 \u00fczerinden s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir veri ama, neticede bir e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa T\u00dc\u0130K, yine ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn ba\u015fka istatistikler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenen reel kesimin g\u00fcveninde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011fu duyuruldu. Alt segmentlere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde 0.7 ile yine \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131p\u0131rdanma olmakla birlikte durum s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Neden derseniz; \u00fclkenin neredeyse ekonomisinin tamamen teslim edildi\u011fi ve piyasalar\u0131 finanstan i\u015f hacmine, hatta istihdama kadar domine eden in\u015faat ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fcveninde gerileme g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki \u00fcreten tarafta durum bu da as\u0131l mal\u0131 sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ki\u015finin ekonomiye g\u00fcveni ne durumda? Yakla\u015f\u0131k bir hafta \u00f6nce de t\u00fcketicinin ekonomiye olan g\u00fcven endeksi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda orada da gerileme g\u00f6zleniyor. Lakin bu da \u00f6nemli de\u011fil. Genel foto\u011frafa bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda 100 biriminin n\u00f6tr nokta olarak kabul edildi\u011fi hesaplamalarda t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni endeksi 65,2\u2026 Yani zaten \u00e7ok gerilerde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi burada ortaya birka\u00e7 ihtimal \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mesela belki de insanlar\u0131n kendi ger\u00e7eklerine yabanc\u0131la\u015farak t\u00fcketmesi bekleniyor. Bu durumda da bu kadar sorunlu birey varken kime nas\u0131l kredi sunulacak? Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u015f\u00fcpheli alacak say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc m\u00fc?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2620505985\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130htimallerden biri de \u00fcreticimizin tamamen kontrol\u00fc kaybedip, t\u00fcketemeyece\u011fi bir mal\u0131 \u00fcretme e\u011filimine girmi\u015f olmas\u0131. Belki de satamayacaklar\u0131 mal\u0131, stok maliyetini de g\u00f6ze alarak rafa \u00fcrettiler. Bunlar m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Ben \u00fcreticinin ekonomi b\u00fcrokrasisinden daha ak\u0131ll\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu nedenle ihtimali zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n<p>Yine bir ihtimal o ki, piyasalar\u0131n ger\u00e7eklerinden koparak, yaranma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na giren kurumlar\u0131m\u0131z entegrasyonunu kaybetmi\u015f ve \u00e7eli\u015fkili rakamlar a\u00e7\u0131klar hale gelmi\u015f. Neticede alg\u0131 y\u00f6netiminin bile tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekmez mi? Ama yok\u2026 Uzun zamand\u0131r da sa\u011flanamad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Peki g\u00fcven olmadan, \u00fcretilenin sat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 finansman olmadan, halk\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetmesine ra\u011fmen t\u00fcketece\u011fi, t\u00fcketmese de \u00fcretenin \u00fcretmeye devam edece\u011fi foto\u011fraf nas\u0131l ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor?<\/p>\n<p>Tek kelimelik a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 var: Korku\u2026 Ger\u00e7ekle y\u00fczle\u015fmeye korkuyorsan\u0131z, bu \u00e7eli\u015fkilere de d\u00fc\u015fersiniz, sorunu a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rarak \u00f6teleyen de olursunuz. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin kendine \u00e7eki d\u00fczen vermekten ba\u015fka \u015fans\u0131 yok. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu hal, sorunu a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, s\u0131ran\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme gelmesini engelliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-225834228\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yine de \u0131srarl\u0131ysan\u0131z, s\u00f6yleyece\u011fim tek \u015fey \u015fu: \u00dcst\u00fcn ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131zdan (!) dolay\u0131 sizleri tebrik ederim.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Diyelim ki gelece\u011fe dair g\u00fcven duygusu i\u00e7erisinde de\u011filsiniz yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Sadece \u00fcretici olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyin, mesela i\u015finizde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yorsan\u0131z eve yeni bir bilgisiyar al\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-52703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52703"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52703\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}